【分享】【轉帖】Bloomberg:These Experts Know Exactly Where Oil Prices Are Headed 專家如何99.99%準確的預測油價!



專家如何準確預測油價走勢?看了這篇報道, 我相信預測99.99%是準確的。。。
(貼的有點不好, 可以直接點連接去看看)



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-06/these-experts-know-exactly-where-oil-prices-are-headed

These Experts Know Exactly Where Oil Prices Are Headed


Somewhere Between $30 and $200 a Barrel

The outlook on oil prices is clear: Oil will crash. Unless prices surge. Definitely one or the other.
Crude just had the biggest two-week gain in 17 years, but it’s still about 50 percent cheaper than it was in June. The situation is volatile, and forecasts are all over the place — from $30 a barrel predicted by the president of Goldman Sachs to as high as $200 a barrel seen by the head of OPEC.
So what’s going to happen next? Here’s a sampling of predictions from the last two weeks:
  • Oil has the potential climb to $200 per barrel from a lack of investment in new supply, warned OPEC’s Secretary General Abdell El-Badri. “If you don’t invest in oil and gas, you will see more than $200,” he said, without giving a time frame.
  • “We are establishing a bottom,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis, which oversees $2.4 billion. “In the long run, probably $60 is going to be your pivot point.” 
  • Oil will probably continue to decline and could reach as low as $30 a barrel, said Gary Cohn, president of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “We’re probably in the lower, longer view,” said Cohn, a former oil trader.
  • “The fundamental supply and demand does remind me of 1986 a bit, where we could go into a period in this decade of lower oil prices,” said BP CEO Bob Dudley. Prices may stay below $60 for as long as three years, he said. “It will be a long time before we see $100 again.”
  • Oil could fall to the $30 a barrel range, said Fumiya Kokubu, CEO of Tokyo-based Marubeni Corp. He said he doesn’t see much of a price rebound in the next two or three years.
What’s an investor to think? In 2015, the average price is likely to be anywhere from $35 to $80, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence survey of 86 investment specialists. That’s a pretty big range.
Q: What Will Be the Average Price of Crude in 2015?









Price per barrel of WTI crude.
To be fair, some of the forecasts above aren’t mutually exclusive. Some analysts think prices could drop further and then skyrocket once production dries up or there's a rebound in global demand, especially China. But the timing of a lasting turnaround in oil prices is murky at best.
The only thing that’s certain is more uncertainty. Probably.




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Bloomberg上非常有趣的一篇文章,油價走勢眾說紛紜, 各持己見。 國際與市場上變數太多, 按照預測油價短期波動來決定投資策略絕對不是一個好方法。


不如回歸基本面, 選擇在高油價成本依然有能力盈利的公司, 或者在低油價依然能穩健發展的油氣股。 公司能立於不敗之地, 所有的波動只不過會對公司長遠的發展錦上添花。


了解自己能力的不足, 自然要避開自己不足的地方, 專家這麼多, 說法各一, 還是避開猜測油價來投資的泥沼來的好。對我來說預測油價漲跌對我來說, 和預測短期股價走勢一樣困難。



菩提薩埵 依般若波羅蜜多故 心無罣礙 無罣礙故 無有恐怖 遠離顛倒夢想 究竟涅盤
投資如修行,”心“很重要。 【股海无涯】投資事件簿, 
記錄股海漂泊中的 潮起潮落 是非成敗

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18 July 2015 at 21:07 delete

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Saya sangat bersyukur atas rahmat yg diberikan kepada saya dibulan ini karna alhamdulillah melalui MBAH RAWAIRE saya sekaran sudah bisa sukses atas nomor yg diberikan kepada saya dan saya yg dulunya cuma seorang TKW dari singapur yg gajinya tidak pernah mencukupi kebutuhan keluarga saya dikampun dan alhamdulillah berkat bantuan MBAH RAWAIRE kini saya sudah bisa pulang kampun,saya bersama keluarga dikampun sudah punya usaha sendiri dan saya tidak pernah menyanka kalau saya bisah seperti ini,jika anda ingin seperti saya silahkan hubungi MBAH RAWAIRE di nomor 085-316-106-111...karna alhamdulillah saya menan nomor togel dari MBAH dan kalau uang indonesia 750 juta,,ini bukan rekayasa dari saya dari IBU RISKA.untuk lebih lenkapnya silahkan buka SITUS MBAH RAWAIRE


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