tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18593753348113108972024-03-21T19:08:54.077+08:00股海無涯What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know.... It's what we know for sure that just ain't so.Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.comBlogger215125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-81756247338003559302020-06-17T22:51:00.000+08:002020-06-17T22:51:11.391+08:00【投資隨想】複利與指數增長的迷思<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">今天我想说一点关于财富增长的事情。人人最关心的一个问题就是钱是怎么赚来的,人人最喜欢的赚钱方法就是投资,而投资中最简单的方法就是依靠“复利”。所谓复利,就是利息产生利息。</span></div>
</div>
<h2 style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 19px; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 1rem 0px 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="color: #2b2b2b; font-family: font-titleSmall; font-size: 19px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 700;">1.鸡汤</span></h2>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">假设你现在有10000元,利息是10%,那明年就会变成11000元。如果利息也能产生利息,也就是所谓“利滚利”,那么到了第二年,你就不仅有12000元,而是10000×1.1×1.1,就是12100元。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">到第 N 年,你的财富就是10000×(1.1的N次方),这就叫“指数增长”。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">10%的利息,25年就达到10倍。也就是说你现在存一万元,25年内你什么都不用干,就能获得10万元。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">那为什么非得是10%的利息呢?15%不是更好?如果利息是15%,只要17年就能达到10倍,34年就是100倍!如果你父母在生你的那一年给你存了1万元,那到你34岁的时候,你已经拥有了100万元。如果当年存10万元,你就有了1000万。如果利息是20%,那更是只要26年就能变成100倍,正好结婚买房。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">所以复利实在是厉害啊。要不怎么爱因斯坦说,宇宙中最强大的力量就是复利! </span></div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">要用复利挣钱,你就要自律,推迟享乐,把钱放在那里坚决不用。那些钱已经不是普通的钱,而是宝贵的种子 —— 你只需耐心等待复利的回馈。</span></div>
</div>
<div><br /></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">每当我听人说用复利挣钱,总会想起一个故事。那是一个关于鸡蛋的故事。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">从前有个人,得到一个鸡蛋,但他没有吃。他想,如果我等这个鸡蛋孵出小鸡,把小鸡养大,还能生出好多好多蛋,那些蛋再孵出小鸡,由此鸡生蛋、蛋生鸡,我不就发大财了吗?</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">他这么想着,一不小心,鸡蛋掉地上摔碎了。这个人非常难过,因为他损失的不是一个鸡蛋,而是一笔巨额的财富。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">如果你觉得指望靠一个鸡蛋发家致富不靠谱,我想说的就是,指望复利致富也不靠谱。这两件事本质上是一样的,只不过利率可能不同。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">我不是质疑你的自律精神 —— 我完全相信你能攒钱。问题不在于本金。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #e8731f; font-family: font-bold; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">问题在于,你想,去哪,找长期的、稳定的、20%的利率。 </span></span></div>
</div>
<h2 style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 19px; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 1rem 0px 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="color: #2b2b2b; font-family: font-titleSmall; font-size: 19px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 700;">2.利率</span></h2>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">在真实世界中,你不但找不到20%的利率,你也找不到15%的利率,你甚至找不到10%的利率。如果华尔街哪个投资公司说我能提供保证10%的利率,无数人会哭着喊着把资金交给它管理。现实是只有庞氏骗局那种非法集资公司做这样的保证。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">关于股票投资有两个基本知识,其中一个你可能不知道,另一个你早就知道。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">你可能不知道的知识是,很少有哪个投资基金能*系统性地*打败市场。所谓“打败市场”,就是在比较长的时间内,你的投资增长率高于大盘指数 —— 比如标准普尔指数。哪怕是老江湖的投资经理,都做不到打败标准普尔指数 [1]。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">你可能会说,每年都有人的投资回报率远远超过标准普尔指数啊 —— 的确有很多,但你无法排除运气因素。你看看今年投资表现排名前十的公司,再看看去年排名前十的公司,你会发现这两个名单非常不一样。你可以在一时打败市场,但你没有办法长期打败市场。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">你应该知道的知识则是,就连大盘指数也是有风险的。咱们看看标准普尔指数过去40年的历史 —— </span></div>
</div>
<div><br /></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">大部分时间内它的确在增长,而且可以连续很多年增长,回报率大大超过把钱存银行。但是请注意,它也有下跌的时候 —— 你永远都不知道它明年到底会增长还是下跌。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">两个知识放一起,这就意味着,没有哪个投资机构能承诺在20年、30年的时间内年年都给你一个比较高的回报率。据我所知,有一个叫文艺复兴的公司最近这些年做到了高回报率 —— 它用的投资算法不一定是可持续的,而且它不轻易接受新客户 —— 这个要点是几乎所有公司都做不到。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">所以,我对复利赚钱模式的质疑就在于,你找不到长期稳定地给你10%回报率的地方。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">事实上,那种指望根本就不符合自然规律。 </span><span style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #e8731f; font-family: font-bold; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">真实世界中就不存在长期指数增长的东西。 </span></span></div>
</div>
<h2 style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 19px; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 1rem 0px 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="color: #2b2b2b; font-family: font-titleSmall; font-size: 19px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 700;">3.真实世界里的增长</span></h2>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">真实世界里一个什么东西的增长,常常呈现像数学家说的“逻辑函数”的样子 ——</span></div>
</div>
<div><br /></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">你可以忽略其中所有的数学细节,记住这个形状就可以。很多学者把这个形状称为“S曲线”。一般公司业务的增长,常常就是S曲线 —— </span></div>
</div>
<div><br /></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">我们可以把这个曲线分成婴儿期、扩张期和成熟期三个阶段。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">在婴儿期,公司刚起步,在相当长的一段时间内可能是不挣钱的。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">你一直坚持下去,有一天新产品打开销路了,公司就会迎来一个高速增长的扩张期。扩张期的增长就非常像指数增长。用户带来口碑,口碑又带来新用户,整个是个正反馈的过程。但是这个指数增长不会持续很长时间!</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">你的增长速度会很快衰减下来,达到一个平台,相当于是一家成熟的公司。为什么一定会遭遇平台呢?因为市场是有限的。终有一天,竞争对手会赶上来,或者就是你发现全国有可能买你产品的人都已经买了你的产品,你的营销手段到顶了。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">这种增长现象在自然界也存在,比如美国每年新感染艾滋病毒的人数,也符合S曲线 —— </span></div>
</div>
<div><br /></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">所以千万别信什么“长此以往国将不国”之类的论断,病毒不会一直扩散,是会被控制的。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">全世界手机用户的增长情况,完美符合S曲线 —— </span></div>
</div>
<div><br /></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">一开始涨的很慢,然后连续二十年手机用户数快速增长,而到今天据说全世界已经有77亿个手机用户,每10个人拥有10.3个手机 [2],你还能指望快速增长吗?</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">所以世界上根本就没有“长期指数增长”这种事情。正所谓花无百日红,潮起有潮落。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">那难道说一个公司到了平台期就没指望了吗?也不是。如果你能制造一个新的增长点,就可以突破平台。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">比如说 iRobot 公司的一段经历 —— </span></div>
</div>
<div><br /></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">iRobot 公司的主要产品是家用的扫地机器人,有过快速增长,到2009年遭遇平台期。就在这时候,他们开辟了一个新领域,搞了个医疗看护的机器人产品,结果获得了第二轮的高速增长。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">所以企业必须不断创新才行,只有创新能带来新的增长 —— </span></div>
</div>
<div><br /></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">理想情况下,一轮又一轮的创新带给你一波又一波的增长 —— </span></div>
</div>
<div><br /></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">但就是这样也是很难的。如果仅仅是原有产品的一个改进,那还不足以带来新一轮增长,仅仅是维持而已。比如我们看苹果公司 iPod 这个产品的销售历史,虽然历经多次创新,但总的来看还是一条S曲线 —— </span></div>
</div>
<div><br /></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">真实世界里就算是不断创新,也很难有持续的高速增长。整个地球的人口就那么多,购买力就这么大,你苹果公司再厉害,就算你将来卖汽车、卖游艇,你总不能卖飞机吧?就算你真的卖飞机,也不可能每家每户都买你的飞机。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">长期的指数增长,根本不符合自然规律。 </span></div>
</div>
<h2 style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 19px; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 1rem 0px 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="color: #2b2b2b; font-family: font-titleSmall; font-size: 19px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 700;">4.回报与风险</span></h2>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">你可能会说,我专门把钱投给成长期的公司,行不行呢?也不行。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">成长型的公司未来都尚未可知,可能变成伟大公司,也可能涨几天就没有了。就好像我们说的那个鸡蛋,搞不好就摔碎了。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">再者,即便你判断出这家公司的前景确实很好,那难道别人就看不出来吗?上市公司的未来前景其实都已经包括在它的股价里面了。我们看市场上有很多市盈率(P/E)特别高的公司,它们当前的盈利非常少,可是股价却特别高,这就表现了市场对它们未来的预期。等你想起来买它股票的时候,它很可能根本就没有被低估。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #e8731f; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">所谓投资,就是在风险和回报之间做一个取舍。你要安全可靠,回报率就很低。你要高回报,就得承担高风险。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">所以马克思不是说吗?10%的利润就能让资本活跃起来,50%的利润就得铤而走险,100%的利润就可以犯法,300%就得冒绞首的风险 —— 没有这个觉悟当什么资本家?</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">普通人投资,如果你没有时间一天到晚研究股票,特别是如果你认为自己并不比专业投资经理更了解股票市场,最好办法大概是去买指数基金。请注意,这个“指数(index)”可不是“指数增长”那个“指数(exponential)”。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">这个道理就是,想“用钱生钱”,就得冒险。就算放高利贷,你都还得担心钱能不能收回来 — 古代民间借贷利率之所以那么高,就是因为很多钱根本收不回来。现在买个利率6%的理财产品,人家还得评估一下你的风险承受能力。买国债、把钱存银行,都还有一个能不能打败通货膨胀的风险。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">在真实的世界里想要发财,要么你拥有某种稀缺的能力,要么你掌握稀缺的资源,比如你是谁儿子,要么就是你有眼光。而眼光,说白了,不管是选择投资机会还是选择职业,跟运气非常有关系。当然投资不等于赌博,运气是可以管理的,但是你不能不承认运气的作用 —— 而且在很多情况下是最重要的作用。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">那些金融产品的存在,并不是为了让人用存钱的方法发财。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">其实在一个金融发达的社会,年轻人不但不应该存钱,而且应该借贷花钱。刚毕业的年轻人又要成家立业又要吃喝玩乐,这时候存什么钱?过去人们总是年轻的时候想用钱却没钱,老了不用钱了却有很多钱,金融的重要作用就是把这个时间上的差异给抹平。</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #e8731f; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">那些把发财的希望寄托在复利上的人,是认知上的懒惰者。</span><span style="color: #404040; font-family: font-text; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400;">当别人拼命工作、甚至冒着风险创业的时候,他们唯一的自律就是少看两场电影、少吃一顿大餐省钱。当别人努力研发创新的时候,他们唯一动脑的地方就是算算这个利率在理论上25年以后能带来多少钱。他们难道不觉得,这想的太简单了吗?</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin: 0.666667rem 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #404040; font-family: font-bold; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">最后,据有人考证 [4],爱因斯坦根本没说过什么“复利是宇宙中最强大的力量”这种傻话。 </span></div>
</div>
<br />
<div style="-webkit-box-direction: normal; -webkit-box-orient: vertical; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-direction: column; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0.866667rem 0px 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: font-text; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">参考文献</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: font-text; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">[1] Stock-Picking Fund Managers Are Even Worse Than We Thought At Beating the Market, JEFF BUKHARI, April 13, 2017 http://fortune.com/2017/04/13/stock-indexes-beat-mutual-funds/</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: font-text; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">[2] http://stats.areppim.com/stats/stats_mobilex2017.htm</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: font-text; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">[3] https://wdpower.wordpress.com/2011/04/01/why-growth-companies-stop-growing-3/</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: font-text; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">[4] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/compound-interest-the-most-powerful-force-in-the-universe/</span></div>
</div>
Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-31840541808309426232020-06-17T22:45:00.000+08:002020-06-17T23:02:02.094+08:00【分析】PTRANS (0786)限行令阻前進 霹靂運通伺機再出發<img height="640" src="https://www.evernote.com/shard/s322/res/048b9e8b-8941-4c70-8118-fa7c0539b6d5" width="480" /><br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;">
<img height="640" src="https://www.evernote.com/shard/s322/res/eaec7c1f-eac5-4abc-a375-406807a0939a" width="480" /></div>
<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
短評: 債務負擔是一點, 不過影響似乎在可控範圍。 行業有壟斷優勢, 不過市場環境短期內似乎沒有什麼發揮空間。</div>
<div>
</div>
Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-85411406655363835872017-10-18T19:38:00.003+08:002017-10-18T19:43:12.590+08:00【給師太的一封家書】<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6MFN2uFkV5k8w9C9OaweEnPXUxz8QnL_ltne5D0IL4tGFDB7v1-nJKEJrqvVTpjF9OoFu7ZFE3_qhfqqfGoBMYhGhi-UoET3eUPTZQdbGUmrVzZJWaz-Ounl9etN7v9HRPf473zI7ge0W/s1600/304444516e683030.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6MFN2uFkV5k8w9C9OaweEnPXUxz8QnL_ltne5D0IL4tGFDB7v1-nJKEJrqvVTpjF9OoFu7ZFE3_qhfqqfGoBMYhGhi-UoET3eUPTZQdbGUmrVzZJWaz-Ounl9etN7v9HRPf473zI7ge0W/s640/304444516e683030.jpg" width="640" /></a>親愛的師太,<br />
離開印度至今兩年有餘, 開始了兩個人在新加坡的新生活, 新工作。 沒有了以前外派的福利,沒有司機, 沒有公司住房, 沒有宿舍阿姨洗衣煮飯。 感覺心情有點變回當初那個初出社會的小夥子。 不過兩個人互相扶持, 一路走來, 也沒什麼大風大浪。上個月你順利誕下小公主, 和2歲半的老大剛好湊個好字, 期間的辛苦不在話下, 也是時候收工, 好好計劃接下來的日子。<br />
<br />
從拍拖到結婚, 為了事業一直在國外打拼, 聚少離多, 身為丈夫, 是我沒盡到丈夫的責任。<br />
<br />
現在雖然兩人一起在新加坡, 可是PR明年才到3年才能買房, 結果兩個小的要老媽幫忙照看, 讓你們母女母子分隔兩地, 是我沒盡到父親的責任。<br />
<br />
盡快讓一家人穩定下來, 是我們現在的大目標。想透過這封信整理自己一直以來對我們未來的想法和一些大致規劃。<br />
<br />
之前其實和你提過, 如果真的不捨, 大不了兩個人打包回家, 隨便回馬找份幾千塊的輕鬆工作, 甚至乎不工作, 一輛小車, 一間老屋, 安安穩穩, 輕輕鬆鬆過小日子, 其實以現在的經濟基礎應該也不難。<br />
<br />
我自己認定了投資如果不是成為我的第一事業, 也會是我的第二事業跟著我一輩子。除了一家人安安穩穩的在一起, 我也有如何將資產增值和家庭經濟能力最大化的考量。<br />
<br />
年近不惑, 如果按照規劃, 這幾年應該在事業上和投資上可以略有小成, 5 年之後相信我們不管做任何決定, 就算在新加坡這個昂貴的城市,經濟能力應該也不會成為我們的第一考量了。<br />
<br />
放棄國外的職位剛回到這個城市, 我的主要資產存款都在馬來西亞, 又碰上馬幣暴跌,你這個摳門的老公真的捨不得換成新幣。 剛開始那段時間, 吃穿用度, 都是靠你補貼我這個小白臉。<br />
<br />
幸與不幸, 我們選擇了新加坡這個城市成為我們中短期的落腳處,<br />
不幸的是, 在這個生活消費指數全球數一數二的國家, 百萬馬幣也不過是這裡一套4房式組屋的事, 感覺上瞬間變得渺小。<br />
<br />
幸的是, 兩個人都有穩定工作, 加上投資回籌, 接下來五年家庭資本增值的速度要達到每年複利增長20-30%以上應該不算太難。當然, 對於投資興趣接近0的你,有空再逼你聽我講講複利的故事。<br />
<br />
之前有想過全職投資, 不過經過深思熟慮之後, 以現在的投資方式, 將資本增值速度作為考量, 放棄在新加坡工作的預期薪水和未來發展對,比全職投資能額外提升的投資回籌, 似乎安心拼上幾年事業配合投資, 是回酬最大化的綜合選項。<br />
<br />
<br />
<ol>
<li>薪水帶來的現金流給投資組合提供了更大的容錯性和提升了長期持有能力。 無需因為應付生活而面對動用投資資金的窘境。</li>
<li>通過現在的工作接觸各行各業, 能夠更好的用管理層的視角去觀察和分析一個行業。財報和數據, 可以告訴我們過去和現在, 只有能有審視行業格局的能力, 才能判斷大方向。這種能力, 跟人相信通過工作是提升這種能力的最佳辦法。</li>
<li>只要薪水能帶給我們5-10%的額外總資產回籌, 5年下來, 總的結果有這非常巨大的不同。 我會用我們私人的記錄做一個比較和預測讓師太你過目。</li>
<li>以現在工作發展來看, 估計很可能事業發展和薪水增幅不一定會少於投資回籌的增幅。</li>
</ol>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
曾經我也是一個花錢大手大腳的少年, 到如今買的所有東西都在考慮長期實用性作為第一考量。 有了家庭以後對金錢的看法有了質的改變。 真心謝謝師太在我最困難彷徨的時候一直不離不棄。 老衲定會扛起這個一家之主的責任, 財務上的問題, 就安心的交給我吧。</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
對于擔心投資股票會把錢虧光光一事, 你還記得我跟你說過那句話嗎?</div>
<div>
“在有生的瞬間能遇到你, 竟花光我所有運氣。” </div>
<div>
遇到你是我一生最大的運氣了, 所以我所有的投資決策,都非常的考慮著最壞的打算, 堅持不期望任何運氣成分, 因為,基本用光了。 </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
至於師太你對於我這個失責的父親獨吞兩個寶貝所有滿月和新年紅包的指控,<br />
請相信老衲不是你想的那種人,請容我之後才慢慢解釋 =D<br />
<br />
<br />
最後, 真心感謝你這些年來的對我, 對這個家的一切付出,愛你。<br />
<br />
股海無涯<br />
18 Oct 2017<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-51205425013180124562017-09-27T22:50:00.002+08:002017-09-27T23:04:00.968+08:00【LEONFB】【6】再说两发<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_ptUXO4nibZ_7PRwpVAiPN6ertbNxWoegzMERGPjkpFO8gbO6RbBzCVaqgvk1ns_OyD6NqmzL93uacUDqHpaA7UX6U3oiW7CT24JKaKIjXknKytbQsUW4f1o6TzQQqCoUXl7AIeOu7P81/s1600/leonfb1.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="304" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_ptUXO4nibZ_7PRwpVAiPN6ertbNxWoegzMERGPjkpFO8gbO6RbBzCVaqgvk1ns_OyD6NqmzL93uacUDqHpaA7UX6U3oiW7CT24JKaKIjXknKytbQsUW4f1o6TzQQqCoUXl7AIeOu7P81/s640/leonfb1.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
写这篇文章有两个目的,<br />
一是今年特别懒好久没发文章,借此和老朋友们交流交流。<br />
(先申明, 又是一篇废话多过分析的话痨贴)<br />
二是分享一下对LEONFB Q2 Qtr Report的一些看法。<br />
(话说Q2好像已经Annouce了快1个月了吧, 好吧, 老衲人老了速度反应都慢半拍)<br />
<br />
其实虽然没有发表BLOG, 不过私下还是时常和FB PAGE的老朋友们谈股论金。<br />
<br />
对于LEONFB收到最多的问题很特别, 总结起来, 基本是问的最多的是以下两点:<br />
1)钢价大涨对LEONFB盈利会不会有很大的负面影响?<br />
2)钢价大跌对LEONFB盈利会不会有很大的负面影响?<br />
<br />
LEONFB的中下游贸易加工商的位置在众多钢铁股中比较特别, 他不是钢价大涨的最直接受益者, 也不是钢价大跌的最大受害者。 这点可以从LEONFB的财报历史数据明白。<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb9RavjRlPzM0BinId24aRNGxA-n-nU4d3ZUu-_WJFZjVMyVSQCJDW5Ju1YA5eFvJZBlO94zdb0C5XFVziRhpV-WCHMJ-m_KhjpS9DwoCUmlnxJaJR3yHPtJl8MsU-QUdLH5lPRQ6tX3jJ/s1600/LEONFB+FY17+Q2.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb9RavjRlPzM0BinId24aRNGxA-n-nU4d3ZUu-_WJFZjVMyVSQCJDW5Ju1YA5eFvJZBlO94zdb0C5XFVziRhpV-WCHMJ-m_KhjpS9DwoCUmlnxJaJR3yHPtJl8MsU-QUdLH5lPRQ6tX3jJ/s640/LEONFB+FY17+Q2.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
虽然在钢铁加工业待过-7-8年的经验, 对一个行业来说其实连一个行业景气大循环都还没有完整经历过, 不敢在此倚老卖老, 大谈什么预测。(之前就完全没预测到中国会下大决心减产)<br />
<br />
不过这些年待过两家钢铁加工公司, 一家马来西亚企业, 一家台湾企业, 很巧的是大家喝酒应酬的时候, 马来西亚的老板和台湾的大老板和许多老臣子, 都不约而同的诉说着2008年以前钢铁业的荣景。<br />
场景不同, 不过却是雷同的故事,<br />
<br />
客户拿着现金在楼下等卖货的盛况, 刚到的货, 弹指间, 就没了。<br />
日子过得逍遥, 基本上就是喝酒应酬拿单。(顾客请你那种)<br />
<br />
其实现在市场实际状况距离当时的情况还是有段距离。<br />
钢铁贸易加工, 相对于钢价, 调控库存和市场需求来的更重要。以历史数据来看,<br />
<br />
LEONFB这点做得是很不错的, 钢价无论如何低迷, 都保持着不错的盈利。GROSS PROFIT一直以来都很稳定。<br />
<br />
钢价涨, 有库存的, 当然乐开怀。<br />
相信LEONFB如无意外,下个QTR的Operating Profit大概会破新高吧。至少在我有限经验里, 钢价大起似乎对于贸易商来说, 从来不是一件坏事。<br />
<br />
当然, 对比起上游长钢,扁钢的生厂商, LEONFB自然不是钢价大涨的最大收益者。<br />
<br />
不过按照自己的风险偏好, 钢价无论大起大落LEONFB依然游刃有余, 对我来说是更适合我这种慢半拍投资者的选择。<br />
<br />
<h3>
<b>Q2 Report被忽略的细节</b></h3>
按照我之前的估计, 售地的盈利应该是45.8m(赔偿金额)-估计5.6(土地的会计报表记录金额),应该是一次性约40m的盈利, 不知道大家是否注意到在Q2 Report只有22m的Other Income?<br />
<br />
BALANCE SHEET的PPE从上季度的144m, 变成这季度的138m, 刚好是我估计的5.6m土地价值。<br />
<br />
那40m的盈利为何会变成22m?<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbLBYCl3fx8DXV2no1YjL9tHso51qz-obIieijsan5o5HsbbiPhJ_PMARx4agLiDUNySSTtg2OFKvgbcrcxGyBa5eiCJuz3kB8UFgwFGLRl3QuedmOd3ydR0VnkWlD28tPmlDvjKKEPVim/s1600/LEONFB+BS+FY17+Q2.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbLBYCl3fx8DXV2no1YjL9tHso51qz-obIieijsan5o5HsbbiPhJ_PMARx4agLiDUNySSTtg2OFKvgbcrcxGyBa5eiCJuz3kB8UFgwFGLRl3QuedmOd3ydR0VnkWlD28tPmlDvjKKEPVim/s640/LEONFB+BS+FY17+Q2.PNG" width="640" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOdvYMWOO8KrhArUx8a7ltDF_uhmjpXzupCyR6rst01CbFuVGkvRkruVK327PsMbCXznRXEJk0f3G16ePKf0wcG3FEJ2j9MZy6mm5q4mdsCCDht1e3LcTKB2EsOoSupCnPB2Tq135eK3KJ/s1600/LEONFB+BS+FY17+Q2+NOTES.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOdvYMWOO8KrhArUx8a7ltDF_uhmjpXzupCyR6rst01CbFuVGkvRkruVK327PsMbCXznRXEJk0f3G16ePKf0wcG3FEJ2j9MZy6mm5q4mdsCCDht1e3LcTKB2EsOoSupCnPB2Tq135eK3KJ/s640/LEONFB+BS+FY17+Q2+NOTES.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
其中19.5m的盈利变成了Prepayments Received. 会计如此记录的原因在note 1 有说明, 主要是售地会造成迁厂和影响销售, 会计会在相对事件实际发生时才反映在Income Statement上。<br />
<br />
简单的来说, 这19m的Prepayment Received, 会在接下来出现在LEONFB的Income Statement中。<br />
<br />
为什么要如此记录?<br />
个人估计, 除了会计规则的限制与要求, 以公司利益出发还有两个原因:<br />
1。 避免一次性造成过高的税务负担。<br />
2。 把一个季度的巨额盈利, 平摊到接下来几个季度, 避免财报的业绩波动。<br />
<br />
当然, 这是我个人的推算, 欢迎会计专业多多指教更正。<br />
不过可以预见, 有了这19m的支撑,接下来的业绩报告都不会太难看(至于会多久或什么时候反映在在QTR report就不得而知了)。<br />
<br />
<h3>
LEONFB的Q2 CORE EARNING</h3>
Net Profit 30m, 扣除售地的一次性21.7m, 其实很多人会认为Core Profit应该是8.3m.<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBiLrD6tdZsj7cRjrHceKSnGq5ErzFbjmGlsTF6eF-YI3tBT3MP8N8EzxUUWNvIg8eZ8TCrEJ4CuobokjkSjkSa_M_bDLu9yH542wBZBc3hZOEOlOc8yimlhPv7UzIjmx_X1Rko3U1SHCz/s1600/LEONFB+BS+FY17+Q2+NOTES+result.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBiLrD6tdZsj7cRjrHceKSnGq5ErzFbjmGlsTF6eF-YI3tBT3MP8N8EzxUUWNvIg8eZ8TCrEJ4CuobokjkSjkSa_M_bDLu9yH542wBZBc3hZOEOlOc8yimlhPv7UzIjmx_X1Rko3U1SHCz/s640/LEONFB+BS+FY17+Q2+NOTES+result.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
其实跟人觉得应该加上0.92m的一次性售地PROFESSIONAL FEES.<br />
也就是说Q2的CORE PROFIT应该是9.2m左右。<br />
<br />
这是不只是超越Q1的业绩, 也算是和FY16Q3最高业绩记录11.5M可以媲美的记录了。<br />
<br />
对比所有Q2同季度所有钢铁股的业绩, 这个业绩满意与否, 各位心里自然有自己的判断。<br />
<h3>
<br />总结:</h3>
投资没有绝对的对于错。 我还持有LEONFB的原因很简单,<br />
回顾第一篇分析<a href="http://e-thg.blogspot.sg/2016/11/leonfb.html" target="_blank">http://e-thg.blogspot.sg/2016/11/leonfb.html</a>,<br />
其实并没有预测到钢价能够如此大涨。 虽然需求Q1-Q2并没有很出色, 不过我还是有抱着新产能遇上高需求的期望。 希望H2可以看到需求, 价格, 碰上LEONFB新产能齐升的空前盛况吧。<br />
<br />
<h4 style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 0.6em; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">卍個人分析記錄</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">買賣盈虧自負</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">分析若有錯誤</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">勞煩提點指出</b></h4>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">Facebook PAGE:</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth</a><o:p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></o:p></span></div>
<span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">股海無涯</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"> Blog:</b><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><a href="http://e-thg.blogspot.com/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">http://e-thg.blogspot.com/</a></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "open sans"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">Twitter: </b><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Endless_Wv" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/Endless_Wv</a></span></div>
</div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-54461861735710646382017-07-29T11:47:00.001+08:002017-09-27T20:42:36.584+08:00【LEONFB】(5)PROPOSED ACQUISITION OF PCM STEEL PROCESSING SDN BHD<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwAE4k-Nuw0MFvfxvTF81M-_5y-_WDPQ_3lkIJjDbmyqbniWm_8h04cL6Yn_wiTu1VjQ2rQShp8oAVhqef4vYPY-k5tnBJy20D2czqKgCcUTYwfMTd-vBldYjIYi-euDoHjCS6T19EclH4/s1600/pcm.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="605" data-original-width="1099" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwAE4k-Nuw0MFvfxvTF81M-_5y-_WDPQ_3lkIJjDbmyqbniWm_8h04cL6Yn_wiTu1VjQ2rQShp8oAVhqef4vYPY-k5tnBJy20D2czqKgCcUTYwfMTd-vBldYjIYi-euDoHjCS6T19EclH4/s640/pcm.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
看到这篇Annoucement本来没有特别感觉。因为看到了300万收购数额真的不大。 对一家营业额REV 近500m, PAT 20-30m的公司来说其实短期内, 无论正面反面的影响都不会太大。<br />
<br />
不过FB Page的老朋友们视乎蛮关心收购的影响, 说以昨晚就花了点时间细读一下Annoucement.<br />
<br />
大家主要关心的问题是Annoucement提到PSP上3年的业绩都处于亏损状态。<br />
<br />
结果仔细一看, 这家公司怎么这么眼熟。<br />
<br />
想了一想, 翻查回之前和朋友的Whatsapp聊天记录。 原来一年多前, 朋友有联络过我, 看看我以前台湾的总公司有没有兴趣收购一家公司, 这家公司正是PSP。<br />
<br />
当然, 最后总公司并没有太大的意愿扩展马来西亚的业务。这件事也就搁着了。<br />
<br />
如上所说, 其实300万的投资, 只是LEONFB拓展业务的一个踏板, 不会有什么短期内太大的印象。<br />
<br />
不过如果真的关心的话, 一下一些消息到可以和大家分享一下。<br />
<br />
PSP的背景Annoucement也大概提到了, 有兴趣的可以自己去看看, 主要是做SLITTING SERVICES为主。原投资方如下:<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "ヒラギノ角ゴ pro w3" , "hiragino kaku gothic pro" , , "meiryo" , "osaka" , "ms pゴシック" , "ms pgothic" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">YODDOGAWA STEEL WORKS, LTD. 85.00 %</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "ヒラギノ角ゴ pro w3" , "hiragino kaku gothic pro" , , "meiryo" , "osaka" , "ms pゴシック" , "ms pgothic" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">NIPPON STEEL & SUMIKIN BUSSAN CORPORATION. 13.00 %</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "ヒラギノ角ゴ pro w3" , "hiragino kaku gothic pro" , , "meiryo" , "osaka" , "ms pゴシック" , "ms pgothic" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">FUJIDEN INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION. 2.00 %</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "ヒラギノ角ゴ pro w3" , "hiragino kaku gothic pro" , , "meiryo" , "osaka" , "ms pゴシック" , "ms pgothic" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "ヒラギノ角ゴ pro w3" , "hiragino kaku gothic pro" , , "meiryo" , "osaka" , "ms pゴシック" , "ms pgothic" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">LEON FUAT会从 YODOGAWA和FUJIDEN手中收购87%的股权, NIPPON STEEL日本新日铁会维持原有股权。</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "ヒラギノ角ゴ pro w3" , "hiragino kaku gothic pro" , , "meiryo" , "osaka" , "ms pゴシック" , "ms pgothic" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "ヒラギノ角ゴ pro w3" , "hiragino kaku gothic pro" , , "meiryo" , "osaka" , "ms pゴシック" , "ms pgothic" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">从朋友口中得知, 其实今年2017年已经开始转亏为盈, 每个月产量也达到300-400mt, 主要是今年开始涉足SILICON STEEL矽钢分条的MARKET, 也SECURE了新客户 Singapore Panasonic的分条Services订单。</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "ヒラギノ角ゴ pro w3" , "hiragino kaku gothic pro" , , "meiryo" , "osaka" , "ms pゴシック" , "ms pgothic" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "ヒラギノ角ゴ pro w3" , "hiragino kaku gothic pro" , , "meiryo" , "osaka" , "ms pゴシック" , "ms pgothic" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">所以LEONFB可能未来也有机会涉足矽钢业务。</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "ヒラギノ角ゴ pro w3" , "hiragino kaku gothic pro" , , "meiryo" , "osaka" , "ms pゴシック" , "ms pgothic" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "ヒラギノ角ゴ pro w3" , "hiragino kaku gothic pro" , , "meiryo" , "osaka" , "ms pゴシック" , "ms pgothic" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">总的来说, 觉得这次收购是正面的。</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "ヒラギノ角ゴ pro w3" , "hiragino kaku gothic pro" , , "meiryo" , "osaka" , "ms pゴシック" , "ms pgothic" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "ヒラギノ角ゴ pro w3" , "hiragino kaku gothic pro" , , "meiryo" , "osaka" , "ms pゴシック" , "ms pgothic" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">当然, 300万的投资, 其实短期影响真的有限, 无需过度在意。</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "ヒラギノ角ゴ pro w3" , "hiragino kaku gothic pro" , , "meiryo" , "osaka" , "ms pゴシック" , "ms pgothic" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">长期如果通过PCM拓展产品品类,开发南马和新加坡市场, 也不失为一个不错的跳板。</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "ヒラギノ角ゴ pro w3" , "hiragino kaku gothic pro" , , "meiryo" , "osaka" , "ms pゴシック" , "ms pgothic" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "ヒラギノ角ゴ pro w3" , "hiragino kaku gothic pro" , , "meiryo" , "osaka" , "ms pゴシック" , "ms pgothic" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">对于持有13%股权的另一股东NIPPON STEEL,钢铁业的人都知道, 有兴趣的行外人可以知己GOOGLE一下。</span>Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-74653968654014061722017-03-23T14:04:00.002+08:002017-03-23T14:38:32.581+08:00【LEONFB】( 4 ) : COMPULSORY ACQUISITION OF LAND<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxd_GqNt9waoK8VRLboyeLpgjWaWvgOFUjXwoUolpwgDIVHdTCeHaelvE_Scuy0vP9TDY3U8n3C__N9aoXIVQsEHHi22EV9u-CsWjBESSur5yYvFPdinWac1EBikWNOc5Da42Am_YUWcu3/s1600/leonfb+logo.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="482" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxd_GqNt9waoK8VRLboyeLpgjWaWvgOFUjXwoUolpwgDIVHdTCeHaelvE_Scuy0vP9TDY3U8n3C__N9aoXIVQsEHHi22EV9u-CsWjBESSur5yYvFPdinWac1EBikWNOc5Da42Am_YUWcu3/s640/leonfb+logo.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkPljxh4KII4Mq0CZAoag6-xQmHCZgprEGbJ_E7U-YrqzILq_4WacryyaLnembqFu_tV-_edZRTrNwnbyMJ4QMKe6k_De_zJzVNXsk69mIrZQ9U-mx2E06XuDAt7Es1oH_vC4qH7jE__tE/s1600/leonfb+land+acquisition+by+MRT2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkPljxh4KII4Mq0CZAoag6-xQmHCZgprEGbJ_E7U-YrqzILq_4WacryyaLnembqFu_tV-_edZRTrNwnbyMJ4QMKe6k_De_zJzVNXsk69mIrZQ9U-mx2E06XuDAt7Es1oH_vC4qH7jE__tE/s640/leonfb+land+acquisition+by+MRT2.PNG" width="618" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
從 July 28, 2016公佈土地搜購消息, 整整等了8個月才算塵埃落定。<br />
(雖然我持有時間大概6-7個月)<br />
價值投資的等待有時是一種煎熬。<br />
等待市場對應有價值的認同, 這種時間抓不准。<br />
抓時機的本事不好, 只能癡癡的等相應消息浮現。<br />
<br />
心情是老朋友的都會懂, 就不多說了。<br />
先來說說細節。<br />
<br />
對於最初購買前對Land Acquisition的收購價格的預測, 是基於:<br />
1) MRT2對MRCB征地賠償的考量。<br />
2)Google了LEONFB廠房實際地址和附近廠房在Murah.com和其他Property網站的類似價格。<br />
3)之後MRT2對Ajinomoto征地賠償補強之前的考量。<br />
4) FB Page建築業、發展商行業的老朋友們給的一些意見和參考。<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjK-iH8VWqene2RaqX9nGwiY0Lnd7cmSXErTgbu3Cc7ftdC-RScplVbC4W2nVfulkWS1wrUoLLekl7mnWyCN2eRRFRwLZh2xczP9RpHEexIfCDA2KP-DCjJO466rEJPO8a8HR1hpok6NxoV/s1600/leonfb+land+acquisition+by+MRT2-2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjK-iH8VWqene2RaqX9nGwiY0Lnd7cmSXErTgbu3Cc7ftdC-RScplVbC4W2nVfulkWS1wrUoLLekl7mnWyCN2eRRFRwLZh2xczP9RpHEexIfCDA2KP-DCjJO466rEJPO8a8HR1hpok6NxoV/s640/leonfb+land+acquisition+by+MRT2-2.PNG" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">第一次的估算</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
一開始估算是<b>10000/sqm</b>, 35.4m, (total land 3346 sqm)<br />
實際征地賠償是 <b>11,000/sqm</b>, 45.8m (total land 4157 sqm)<br />
<br />
大家應該也發覺到細節了, 雖然PER Square Meter 賠償數額基本上是準確, 那為什麼總數<br />
竟然差了1000萬。<br />
<br />
問題就在於關於第二塊地的收購從2915sqm部分收購變成 3726 sqm整塊地完全收購。<br />
<br />
一開始看谷歌地圖的時候其實也有這個疑問, 征收了大部分廠房和土地留下800 sqm。<br />
<br />
不過還好我的關心是多餘的, MRT2給出了合理的方案(整塊土地完整收購), 賠償也比估算的稍微好一點。<br />
<br />
這是好事嗎? 當然是好事, 不然800 sqm的土地不足以建廠蓋倉庫, 只能荒廢長草養牛了。<br />
<br />
<br />
<h3>
總結</h3>
對LEONFB的兩大期待已經實現其一(超越期待),<br />
第二個期待就是2017年新產能碰上市場需求復甦。<br />
<br />
當然要注意以上只是MRT2的獻意(Proposal), LEONFB并還未接受。<br />
不過我實在想不到不接受的理由。<br />
<br />
在收到這筆錢后, 當然有部分會作為遷廠用途。<br />
估計另外部分相信會用來減少這幾年擴張造成的龐大債務。<br />
如果幸運的話, 今年Dividend給的闊氣點最好。<br />
<br />
<br />
在此要謝謝幾位FB PAGE的老朋友,<br />
其中一位做發展商的,大概在去年年尾的時候, 很主動的跑到土地局想幫我問問土地收購價, 雖然最後他說問不到,因為他裡面的朋友Pangkat不夠, 不過給了我其他很重要的訊息, 就是Leon Fuat正在Mpkj申请扩建Cheras Balakong的厂, 相信是替代征地廠房。<br />
<br />
另外一位就是在我之前對沒有任何消息, 股價突然爆量上漲, 突然股東又買票, 實在有點摸不著頭腦的時候, 好心分享他參與的其他平台的資訊, 原來是OTB和Shareinfo4u等平台都在推薦, 目標價給出了1.1-1.20.<br />
<br />
互聯網時代的投資人就是這樣, 缺少的不再是資訊(基本上已經是資訊氾濫),<br />
重要的是<b>獲得高質量資訊</b>和<b>分析判斷資訊</b>的能力。<br />
能有幸通過FB Page這個平台得到大家的幫助,<br />
<br />
<b>老衲深感榮欣, 與有榮焉, </b><br />
<b>在此謝謝大家。</b><br />
<br />
<h4 style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 0.6em; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">卍個人分析記錄</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">買賣盈虧自負</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">分析若有錯誤</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">勞煩提點指出</b></h4>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">Facebook PAGE:</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth</a><o:p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></o:p></span></div>
<span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">股海無涯</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"> Blog:</b><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><a href="http://e-thg.blogspot.com/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">http://e-thg.blogspot.com/</a></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "open sans"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">Twitter: </b><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Endless_Wv" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/Endless_Wv</a></span></div>
</div>
<br />
<br />Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-7330595926352333772017-03-10T17:30:00.001+08:002017-03-10T17:30:59.865+08:00【散户的期望】中韩萨德风波<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="a9pkh" data-offset-key="dlllu-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="dlllu-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="dlllu-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;">【散户的期望】</span></div>
</div>
<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="a9pkh" data-offset-key="9v1sq-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="9v1sq-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="9v1sq-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;">股市中有一种东西叫做希望。</span></div>
</div>
<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="a9pkh" data-offset-key="fje8d-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="fje8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="fje8d-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;">希望是个好东西, 身为一个红尘中迷途小散户,</span></div>
</div>
<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="a9pkh" data-offset-key="e7g13-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="e7g13-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="e7g13-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;">都希望自己的判断和推测成真。</span></div>
</div>
<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="a9pkh" data-offset-key="4sf33-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="4sf33-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="4sf33-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;"><br data-text="true" /></span></div>
</div>
<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="a9pkh" data-offset-key="47p62-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="47p62-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="47p62-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;">伊波拉时希望手套股需求疯涨,</span></div>
</div>
<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="a9pkh" data-offset-key="h041-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="h041-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="h041-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;">结果伊波拉在不知不觉中被大家所淡忘。</span></div>
</div>
<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="a9pkh" data-offset-key="5mqu3-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="5mqu3-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="5mqu3-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;"><br data-text="true" /></span></div>
</div>
<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="a9pkh" data-offset-key="20rn2-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="20rn2-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="20rn2-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;">兹卡病毒时希望保险套全球疯涨,</span></div>
</div>
<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="a9pkh" data-offset-key="5um6r-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="5um6r-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="5um6r-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;">结果闻之色变的病毒好像现在也无声无息。</span></div>
</div>
<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="a9pkh" data-offset-key="154m6-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="154m6-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="154m6-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;"><br data-text="true" /></span></div>
</div>
<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="a9pkh" data-offset-key="eocn4-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="eocn4-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="eocn4-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;">POKEMON看到满街都是“丧尸赶路, 全民抓怪”</span></div>
</div>
<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="a9pkh" data-offset-key="5quqg-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="5quqg-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="5quqg-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;">以为3g、4g移动网络需求会爆发,</span></div>
</div>
<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="a9pkh" data-offset-key="64vev-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="64vev-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="64vev-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;">结果之后,几乎每家Telco都交出让人大跌眼镜的业绩。</span></div>
</div>
<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="a9pkh" data-offset-key="c6ln8-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="c6ln8-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="c6ln8-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;"><br data-text="true" /></span></div>
</div>
<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="a9pkh" data-offset-key="7s737-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="7s737-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="7s737-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;">那这次我又希望些什么呢?</span></div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="7s737-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="7s737-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="7s737-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="7s737-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="http://www.enanyang.my/news/20170310/%E3%80%90%E8%90%A8%E5%BE%B7%E9%A3%8E%E6%B3%A2%E3%80%91%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%81%9C%E9%A3%9E%E5%A4%9A%E6%9D%A1%E8%B5%B4%E9%9F%A9%E8%88%AA%E7%BA%BF-br-%E9%87%8D%E5%88%9B%E9%9F%A9%E5%9B%BD/" style="font-size: 14px;" target="_blank">【萨德风波】中国停飞多条赴韩航线-br-重创韩国</a></span></div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="7s737-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="7s737-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
</div>
<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="a9pkh" data-offset-key="fhjs5-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="fhjs5-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="fhjs5-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="fhjs5-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="fhjs5-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;">韩国是中国第二大境外出境旅游,</span></div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="fhjs5-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="fhjs5-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="http://www.ctaweb.org/html/2017-1/2017-1-22-10-41-66902.html" target="_blank">2016中国出境旅游者大数据</a></span></div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="fhjs5-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="fhjs5-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;">2016年为1.22亿人 依次为-泰国-韩国-日本</span></div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="fhjs5-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="fhjs5-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe0MsQ8m_KIln6ym94JkH8ZH0bz819yowBBzolkqbPtM9WtxjiBCRigdOgLCKDOKT7IQZJndPyYInLFU7mfOSRJ1oLo_4kPB5dJDBipM8LA9qZAfwqhDm9fzbHGQOBMuaFZsOY3USL2Kqd/s1600/23-752262-11.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="522" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe0MsQ8m_KIln6ym94JkH8ZH0bz819yowBBzolkqbPtM9WtxjiBCRigdOgLCKDOKT7IQZJndPyYInLFU7mfOSRJ1oLo_4kPB5dJDBipM8LA9qZAfwqhDm9fzbHGQOBMuaFZsOY3USL2Kqd/s640/23-752262-11.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="fhjs5-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="fhjs5-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
</div>
<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="a9pkh" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<br /></div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
中韩事件越演越烈, </div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
中国人爱杯葛是总所周知,</div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
以前钓鱼岛事件杯葛过日货,南海事件杯葛过美货&菲律宾,</div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
最近和小英政府闹不开心,</div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
也开始杯葛台湾旅游业(对了, 上表你看不到台湾, 中国人应该认为那是境内游)</div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
MH370事件, 也杯葛过马来西亚。</div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<br /></div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
虽然最后大家都忘了杯葛过什么, 日子还是照样过, </div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
不过如果有跟进这些新闻的, 在杯葛初期, 强国人的杯葛力度是真的强大。</div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
钓鱼岛事件时我还在中国, 那时看到新闻砸车事件,</div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
吓得赶快叫保安吧厂里一辆Odyssey和一辆City用帆布开起来。</div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<br /></div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
长期改变什么我到不觉得,</div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<br /></div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
This Shall Will Pass.</div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<br /></div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
不过接下来, </div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
中国-东南亚航线今年应该会有一段不错的日子。</div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<br /></div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
而亚航的4个基地TAA, MAA, IAA, PAA 泰马印菲都是在10大出游之列。。。</div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
之前大航空时代:<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal;"><a href="http://e-thg.blogspot.sg/2016/06/blog-post_11.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">【第三章】龍與象的崛起</a><a href="http://e-thg.blogspot.sg/2016/06/blog-post_11.html" target="_blank"> http://e-thg.blogspot.sg/2016/06/blog-post_11.html</a></b></div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
也提到过, AA GROUP中国来往东南亚廉航在中国的市占率是龙头老大。</div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<br /></div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<br /></div>
<h3 style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
总结:</h3>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<br /></div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; position: relative;">
影响幅度有多大?</div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; position: relative;">
有多少旅客会从韩国流入东南亚?</div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; position: relative;">
那就不知道了, 反正, 怎么看都正面。</div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; position: relative;">
<br /></div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; position: relative;">
这些年在股市领悟到的一个小道理:</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; position: relative;">
站在安全的地方期待奇迹。<br />东方不亮西方亮, 给点阳光就灿烂。</blockquote>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; position: relative;">
就算这期待不成真, 我还有AAC, PAA/IAA listed, AACE Listed, Special Dividend, OneAsean Brand等等等等。。。。</div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; position: relative;">
<br /></div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; position: relative;">
随便那一道阳光照进来, 都一样可以花开灿烂。</div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; position: relative;">
<br /></div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; position: relative;">
如果一道光都没有呢?</div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; position: relative;">
哈哈, 那老衲只能自认倒霉了。。。</div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; position: relative;">
<br /></div>
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3fj8d-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; position: relative;">
<h4 style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 0.6em; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal;">
<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">卍個人分析記錄</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">買賣盈虧自負</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">分析若有錯誤</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">勞煩提點指出</b></h4>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">Facebook PAGE:</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth</a><o:p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: "open sans"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal;">
<div style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">股海無涯</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"> Blog:</b><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><a href="http://e-thg.blogspot.com/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">http://e-thg.blogspot.com/</a></span></div>
<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">Twitter: </b><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Endless_Wv" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/Endless_Wv</a></span></div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="a9pkh" data-offset-key="67c9m-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="67c9m-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="67c9m-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;"><br data-text="true" /></span></div>
</div>
<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="a9pkh" data-offset-key="7fsfj-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="7fsfj-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;">
<span data-offset-key="7fsfj-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></div>
</div>
Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-42030262695515078242017-03-01T13:05:00.000+08:002017-03-01T14:03:31.588+08:00【LEONFB】【3】2016Q4业绩出炉<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxd_GqNt9waoK8VRLboyeLpgjWaWvgOFUjXwoUolpwgDIVHdTCeHaelvE_Scuy0vP9TDY3U8n3C__N9aoXIVQsEHHi22EV9u-CsWjBESSur5yYvFPdinWac1EBikWNOc5Da42Am_YUWcu3/s1600/leonfb+logo.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxd_GqNt9waoK8VRLboyeLpgjWaWvgOFUjXwoUolpwgDIVHdTCeHaelvE_Scuy0vP9TDY3U8n3C__N9aoXIVQsEHHi22EV9u-CsWjBESSur5yYvFPdinWac1EBikWNOc5Da42Am_YUWcu3/s320/leonfb+logo.PNG" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUDNW_ychrT7ZeR-Jgm8kAzE3m6OAJaRBLPAnw2REPp-QQBUQTNz1Ejz0Q3KhFhJ7NGOMGXna4lX-TD7eHH3AFplABVjMYb8puXiWu48FrFUXkw6TY4KIqGEduB4CILKQsQH1vG4BlE1Uc/s1600/leonfb16q4.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUDNW_ychrT7ZeR-Jgm8kAzE3m6OAJaRBLPAnw2REPp-QQBUQTNz1Ejz0Q3KhFhJ7NGOMGXna4lX-TD7eHH3AFplABVjMYb8puXiWu48FrFUXkw6TY4KIqGEduB4CILKQsQH1vG4BlE1Uc/s640/leonfb16q4.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<b>Revnue</b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
</div>
<ul>
<!-- adsense -->
<li>PAT历史新高(虽然只是比2014年高峰多了130k)</li>
<li>主要归功于钢材价格高涨, EPS=8.928, 以现在0.55左右的价格大概是PE6左右</li>
</ul>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2SvjDm1HiyLBp9YTmw5Djgjn_HS0St1bvMygPT0jJCddT4lUIUDWp3tHHTySI9iaRhzYhdNLr3wTspTwCOCDLazl6EnnIU79-hwes0m1TjkXyf7iZnyBcHvPO53NqMMBhSh3Iodo8ownx/s1600/leonfb16q4-segment.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2SvjDm1HiyLBp9YTmw5Djgjn_HS0St1bvMygPT0jJCddT4lUIUDWp3tHHTySI9iaRhzYhdNLr3wTspTwCOCDLazl6EnnIU79-hwes0m1TjkXyf7iZnyBcHvPO53NqMMBhSh3Iodo8ownx/s640/leonfb16q4-segment.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Business Segment</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
</div>
<ul>
<li>Trading: 销售量和销售价格齐升, Trading Rev&Profit部分都是历史新高, 估计和新的Warehouse投入运作有关</li>
<li>Processing: Processing是公司的主力, 虽然受惠于钢价上涨Margin上升, 不过市场需求冷淡, 很大程度上被销售量的下跌抵消。</li>
</ul>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg47rbrJ_Xy_VXUrGVzOxpQUpmrd1ambY_wgQnySQFafle5fNJDmmfg3g07rPfLe9AtW-tIIWokCNa__4PbOVS8uGtYBhJC9iLvVItDsoP03GgrhBRMM1RvuknHDfr6FDOJ1wCsUxlfZsxo/s1600/leonfb16q4-bs.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="466" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg47rbrJ_Xy_VXUrGVzOxpQUpmrd1ambY_wgQnySQFafle5fNJDmmfg3g07rPfLe9AtW-tIIWokCNa__4PbOVS8uGtYBhJC9iLvVItDsoP03GgrhBRMM1RvuknHDfr6FDOJ1wCsUxlfZsxo/s640/leonfb16q4-bs.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
BALANCE Sheet<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>NTA=0.83 vs Share Price 0.55</li>
<li>这两年积极投资新产能, Warehouse&New Factory, 可以发现到PPE从FY15的93m增加到FY16的144M, 可是产能上并还没有看到显著提升, 希望FY17能开始为业绩作出实际的贡献。</li>
<li>Total Liabilities从FY15增加23m左右, 主要是作为新产能的投入用途, 估计FY17会大幅降低。</li>
</ul>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOhV5SNu8xS6v8Fl6gRv-2iVlm1Rog_ayqYZMeSKtwE9vXYpRFq8khscgWF8GBvc6hhyuuEiyrRi6HqfGo3jDTDqb9f8awIiAFI4M2CAyr7dmApvvEthwdz-M3gMrlMox420zohniXA3JC/s1600/leonfb16q4-cf.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="302" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOhV5SNu8xS6v8Fl6gRv-2iVlm1Rog_ayqYZMeSKtwE9vXYpRFq8khscgWF8GBvc6hhyuuEiyrRi6HqfGo3jDTDqb9f8awIiAFI4M2CAyr7dmApvvEthwdz-M3gMrlMox420zohniXA3JC/s640/leonfb16q4-cf.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<b> Cashflow</b><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>FY16的Net Cash frm Operating 39m是历史新高。</li>
<li>Cash flow frm InvestingFY15+16大概花费了75m, 估计FY17应该会大幅度减少</li>
<li>估计会有MRT2土地收购案会额外贡献2000-3000左右的One Off Extra Cash</li>
</ul>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
总结</h3>
<div>
FY16业绩如果没有钢价的大涨的前提下我会非常满意, </div>
<div>
不过在钢价暴涨的环境下这样的业绩只能算合格。</div>
<div>
Processing是LEON FUAT的中心, 可是去年却面对市场需求缓慢的影响, 虽然价格和Margin提升, 不过被销售量所抵消。 </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
FY17国内需求暂时保持乐观, Saudi增加Rapid 7b的投资, 还有2017各主要工程MRT2, Pan Boneo Highway, 大吉隆玻计划等等, 需求方面应该对比FY16应该会显著提升。</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
至于MRT2土地收购案至今任然没有消息。</div>
<div>
耐心等待中。希望开出个好价格。</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
发现很多FB Page的老朋友也买进了LEONFB, 不禁感到压力山大,</div>
<div>
我的持股按FY15年报已经是30大股东了, 竟然发现至少有2位FB的朋友买的比我还多。</div>
<div>
老衲真的不明白现在的年轻人到底是多有钱。</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
如果FY16年报没有我名字老衲跟你割席断交。</div>
<div>
(开玩笑, 其实我希望你们最好尽量买, 买到把我挤出去)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
玩笑开过了, 还是要说些心里话, LEONFB属于钢铁业下游,受到大环境的影响不小, </div>
<div>
虽然现在是站在PE6左右期待明年新产能的贡献, 觉得风险不大。</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
而且我的要求也不高, </div>
<div>
不过是31m/EPS 0.10, 对比2016的27m不过是10-15%的增长, </div>
<div>
正常环境下配合新产能应该不难做到, </div>
<div>
配合MRT2土地收购改善Balance Sheet, PE来个Re-rating to PE8-10左右。</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
不过也要留意新产能受到大环境影响缺乏需求而闲置的窘境。</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
如果加上钢价来个大回转, 以LEONFB的流通量, 想跑都很困难,还希望各位施主谨慎小心。</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
对之前总分析有兴趣的可以点连接:<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://e-thg.blogspot.sg/2016/11/leonfb.html" target="_blank">http://e-thg.blogspot.sg/2016/11/leonfb.html</a></span><br />
<br />
<br /></div>
<br />
<h4 style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 0.6em; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">卍個人分析記錄</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">買賣盈虧自負</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">分析若有錯誤</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">勞煩提點指出</b></h4>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1d2129; font-family: "open sans"; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">
</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "open sans"; font-size: 15px;"></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">Facebook PAGE:</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth</a><o:p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></o:p></span></div>
<span style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">股海無涯</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"> Blog:</b><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><a href="http://e-thg.blogspot.com/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">http://e-thg.blogspot.com/</a></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: "open sans"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">Twitter: </b><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Endless_Wv" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/Endless_Wv</a></span></div>
</div>
<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-27351412586056434482017-02-25T00:25:00.000+08:002017-02-25T00:26:03.137+08:00【AIRASIA】管理层与投行会议视频Youtube分享<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWZpBRam4Vsnj2xVmzbDTDazltRYy64qX8jop8XoiNDpEvt3SkSVgQDjUxdInZhA5hqTVVVEIdsBrVqJGoaZLBP3n-zzcEkfBYY8H35CelDPX7t5i2PEDT7Gx74wyXA0j_4AzcMuix3o8Z/s1600/air-asia-red-hot-sale.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWZpBRam4Vsnj2xVmzbDTDazltRYy64qX8jop8XoiNDpEvt3SkSVgQDjUxdInZhA5hqTVVVEIdsBrVqJGoaZLBP3n-zzcEkfBYY8H35CelDPX7t5i2PEDT7Gx74wyXA0j_4AzcMuix3o8Z/s640/air-asia-red-hot-sale.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<!-- adsense -->
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/LrRymIPFobY/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LrRymIPFobY?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
身为AA的小股东, 对于这种形式的视频分享是大大的赞赏。<br />
之前就有讨论过媒体新闻的弱点。<br />
除了很多标题哗众取宠, 很多都是简单的盈利暴涨,业绩急跌等很片面的立场。<br />
再加上之前有提过, 很多报章是转载了再转载, 翻译了再翻译。<br />
有多重错误传播的风险。<br />
(<span style="font-family: inherit;">相信很多人或者公司培训是都玩过传话游戏,<span style="background-color: white; color: #252525;">为从队伍首端通过</span><a class="new" href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%E8%80%B3%E8%AF%AD&action=edit&redlink=1" style="background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #a55858; text-decoration: none;" title="耳语(页面不存在)">耳语</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #252525;">或</span><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%82%A2%E4%BD%93%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80" style="background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #0b0080; text-decoration: none;" title="肢体语言">肢体语言</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #252525;">传达一句话至队尾,通常游戏结束时最初的那句话已变得面目全非。游戏过程中的注意事项是,两人在进行传话时,不能有第三方听见。这个游戏旨在说明</span><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%B0%A3%E8%A8%80" style="background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #0b0080; text-decoration: none;" title="谣言">谣言</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #252525;">或者是</span><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%BC%A0%E8%AF%B4" style="background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #0b0080; text-decoration: none;" title="传说">传说</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #252525;">在扩散中因传播者误听或添油加醋所产生的效果。</span>) </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
这样的视频分享让小股东可以直接接触原始数据(Primary Data), 而不是经过投行的分析或者报章的转载。<br />
<br />
视频除了Q4业绩的presentation, 跟重要的是还有之后的Investment Bank的问答环节。<br />
<br />
很多IB提出的不单单是那些“捧大脚”或者歌功颂德的问题, 而是很多投资者的疑惑, 和一些具有挑战意味的问题。<br />
<br />
建议大家和Presentation一起看, Download Link Below:<br />
<a href="http://www.airasia.com/my/en/about-us/ir-quarterly-reports.page" target="_blank">http://www.airasia.com/my/en/about-us/ir-quarterly-reports.page</a><br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzm0JXLWT-sYgOZwvU_HT9hSehacu6kFhrJp7H9oj6Udo__VqHKxD_6bj3PDnWfIovA97l-zIXRe4s7vYBRoTb7J4oob2higKnIBXStgThnW3u4cNMFsLH9krh87HiLpwtJxKWXX4h3x-x/s1600/AA+16q4+PRESENTATION+N+VIDEO.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="348" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzm0JXLWT-sYgOZwvU_HT9hSehacu6kFhrJp7H9oj6Udo__VqHKxD_6bj3PDnWfIovA97l-zIXRe4s7vYBRoTb7J4oob2higKnIBXStgThnW3u4cNMFsLH9krh87HiLpwtJxKWXX4h3x-x/s640/AA+16q4+PRESENTATION+N+VIDEO.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<h2>
总结</h2>
还是那句老话, 站在理解相同资讯的平台下进行的讨论才有意义。<br />
在同样资讯平台下,无论你认为风险太大, 管理层夸大;<br />
还是你和我一样认为2017年AAC, IAA, PAA listed, 业绩, GTR, ACE, 任然有可期待,<br />
我都一样给予万二分的尊重与理解。<br />
这也是我设立Blog和FB Page的一个目的, 通过各行各业的老朋友们互相交流, 吸收各方面的资讯来降低投资的风险。<br />
<br />
所以, 老朋友们, 以后有分享希望大家不吝赐教, 踊跃发言吧!<br />
<br />
这次就不做Summary了, 有兴趣的朋友慢慢看, 再来聊聊。<br />
关于i3有些高手有特殊理解的“970亿债务问题”Video里有稍稍提到, 有兴趣的朋友可以留意一下。<br />
<br />
<h4 style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 0.6em; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">卍個人分析記錄</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">買賣盈虧自負</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">分析若有錯誤</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">勞煩提點指出</b></h4>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">Facebook PAGE:</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth</a><o:p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: "open sans"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<div style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">股海無涯</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "open sans"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"> Blog:</b><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><a href="http://e-thg.blogspot.com/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">http://e-thg.blogspot.com/</a></span></div>
<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">Twitter: </b><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Endless_Wv" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/Endless_Wv</a></span><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
<br />Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-39957831194739690032017-02-23T13:47:00.004+08:002017-02-23T13:52:35.807+08:00【AIRASIA】2016Q4业绩预测<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgA2MsFwkBlVjZVrX8iqvDJBXuSq4vs_K3mHePozDmSHnljDyiYQLiHTcV_a-TMpOylTyifdOdIh16TapZUr2CwIWKaQ2SihYQP6D0xOupi5U7JswSX9zHcGimd-xNCaUxcgHLOPQ4Pt842/s1600/AirAsia-flight.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgA2MsFwkBlVjZVrX8iqvDJBXuSq4vs_K3mHePozDmSHnljDyiYQLiHTcV_a-TMpOylTyifdOdIh16TapZUr2CwIWKaQ2SihYQP6D0xOupi5U7JswSX9zHcGimd-xNCaUxcgHLOPQ4Pt842/s640/AirAsia-flight.jpg" width="640" /></a><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<!-- adsense -->
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsfEaXZovR64oo5djMUulL7BNHo5CD_t3zh87C6B1la4SbALbnNNM6usqMJqUl4ENBEOmH7fRJ7a3ygujlk_5AFEvaeZs7oWZBVOGd5r1ydTvSO88rsWcNHuyT-gfKnCfj5dMoAEdFoR5l/s1600/AA+2016Q4+EST-1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsfEaXZovR64oo5djMUulL7BNHo5CD_t3zh87C6B1la4SbALbnNNM6usqMJqUl4ENBEOmH7fRJ7a3ygujlk_5AFEvaeZs7oWZBVOGd5r1ydTvSO88rsWcNHuyT-gfKnCfj5dMoAEdFoR5l/s640/AA+2016Q4+EST-1.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhldYIzn6piU8scki8ZOx55gWI0DpnYtSDn-1rj5QLngbEcaEhkG0LoFqHoYatdubZEwkuUy1zTACicYFJ-X7J28oywMOEyOeE5jnvU_qYUUroF9T0Ok25PmW24GAoKAwB4NytUuz5j_0R0/s1600/AA+2016Q4+EST-2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhldYIzn6piU8scki8ZOx55gWI0DpnYtSDn-1rj5QLngbEcaEhkG0LoFqHoYatdubZEwkuUy1zTACicYFJ-X7J28oywMOEyOeE5jnvU_qYUUroF9T0Ok25PmW24GAoKAwB4NytUuz5j_0R0/s640/AA+2016Q4+EST-2.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
只是预测, 大家别太认真。。。<br />
<br />
Net Operating Profit 469m<br />
PAT 414m<br />
<br />
算比较保守的预测吧, 实际成绩可能稍微好些。。。<br />
<br />
share Issue过后No of share 变成3.3b, 不过那是2017Q1的事, 这里没更改,大家留意就好。<br />
<br />
<br />Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-65687625469469730992017-02-22T13:17:00.001+08:002017-02-22T13:21:16.737+08:00【LEONFB】【2】对最近钢铁股业绩两极化的一些想法<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzNTI-5OYlv9YbI15fW08SjmcQT_8zqhvhp_PXWiRb1v_kikSh9b3nGti0ksgEuP8gyw1FWE6GTk1DmXK6lsAK_HlTibak-16bvm7JuibOI-EteBudbr15KmIgQ8i1oKxb2JkTpqkeEW0l/s1600/Leonfb.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzNTI-5OYlv9YbI15fW08SjmcQT_8zqhvhp_PXWiRb1v_kikSh9b3nGti0ksgEuP8gyw1FWE6GTk1DmXK6lsAK_HlTibak-16bvm7JuibOI-EteBudbr15KmIgQ8i1oKxb2JkTpqkeEW0l/s640/Leonfb.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
看到钢铁股出炉业绩如此两极, 不禁担心起来, Leonfb不会给我来个‘惊喜’吧?<br />
<br />
对自己投资判断产生怀疑不是第一次, 无可否认, 我们很多时候都会‘主动’或者‘被动’的受到周遭泛滥成灾的资讯影响。<br />
<br />
<br />
这是一个心态历练的过程。<br />
<!-- adsense -->
每次产生怀疑, 我都提醒自己静下心来, 再看看年报, 再看看自己分享过的分析, 再看看自己这些年做的正确与错误的决定。<br />
<br />
这也是我为什么尽量坚持分享, 除了记录投资历程的目的, 另一大原因也因为分享有第三方参与, 心里暗示下会把分析写的严谨一点, 思考上也全面一点<br />
<br />
很多人应该都有那种在没有记录和第3方监督的情况下想法上发生突然地改变而不知觉的情况, 至少我以前常常有。<br />
<br />
Q2 业绩出炉高峰, 看了这么多钢铁股业绩, 当然会担心LEONFB究竟会是正极, 还是负极?<br />
<br />
昨天晚上就好好的看了篇年报, 网站, 和自己的分享记录, 再好好想想这些年在钢铁业看到的兴衰浮沉。<br />
<br />
一觉醒来登时豁然开朗。<br />
<br />
那到不是因为我准确预感到了LEONFB Q4业绩会一飞冲天,<br />
而是, 我之前的分析和判断基本上和Q4业绩没有太直接关系。<br />
<br />
有兴趣看之前分析的可看:<a href="http://e-thg.blogspot.sg/2016/11/leonfb.html" target="_blank">【LEONFB】我和鋼鐵業的那些年</a><br />
<br />
之前的分析是基于几点。<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>低PE&预计在新产能:明年国内各大工程的配合下可以有一番作为, 这个预测主要是对2017年的期待, 现在很多工程都还未正式开跑, 按Q4其他钢铁股季报的讯息, 估计Q4普遍上存在下游需求不高的现象</li>
<li>MRT2 卖地的售价情况:耐心等待中, 希望很快又好消息。 我乐观估计是30m, 如果保守按照附近厂房估价, 应该至少也有20m, 按Annual Report2003年土地采购价4.7m, 那至少是15m-25m的一次性盈利。 如果有土地重估,估计一次性盈利会达到20-40m, 当然重估部分不过是纸上盈利(LEONFB上市以来历史盈利高峰是2014年27.5m). </li>
</ul>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
按照之前的判断, 我要做的是等待我的预测和判断成真。 </div>
<div>
并不需要是对Q4季度提心吊胆。</div>
<div>
即使Q4季度不好, 和我之前的判断并没有太大冲突。</div>
<div>
(当然, 不合理的亏损必然有重新审视自己判断的必要性)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
而且,自己也是在钢铁加工业待过的人, 底价库存和上升中的销售价格, 是百利而无一害的, 这是生意人的逻辑认知。 </div>
<div>
也许会计上会因为Accounting Method计算新进库存的价值而有所影响(一般钢铁股Inventories VALUE的计算方式是使用Weight Average, 而不是FIFO/LIFO), 不过按照做生意的逻辑, 这就是一笔大赚的生意。 </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
LEONFB在Q3的Inventories 是181m, </div>
<div>
Inventories Turnover 历史上大概是0.5 or 6 Month.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
假设品均产品售价接下来2个季度增加在20%, 这批库存无形中就为LEONFB的盈利额外贡献了 36m.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
当然, 以上是最简单粗暴不管ACC Method的估计, </div>
<div>
实际情况还要考虑到可能因为销售量降低造成的削价。</div>
<div>
不过我是保持谨慎乐观。</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
而且, 我买入LEONFB的时候, 根本就没预算到钢铁价格会大涨。</div>
<div>
为什么现在反而要去担心可能因为ACC Method造成的业绩?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
后话</h3>
<div>
一字记之曰, </div>
<div>
不忘初心。<br />
<br />
<h4 style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 0.6em; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">卍個人分析記錄</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">買賣盈虧自負</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">分析若有錯誤</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">勞煩提點指出</b></h4>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: "open sans"; font-size: 17px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
</span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">Facebook PAGE:</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth</a><o:p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></o:p></span></div>
<span style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">股海無涯</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"> Blog:</b><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><a href="http://e-thg.blogspot.com/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">http://e-thg.blogspot.com/</a></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: "open sans"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">Twitter: </b><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Endless_Wv" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/Endless_Wv</a></span></div>
</div>
<br />Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-89628993113709405232017-02-22T10:59:00.001+08:002017-02-22T10:59:07.945+08:00【AAX】對2016Q4業績的预测<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNrHuxXUbMO3viMla3SQSZdJ1IAxU4uYKg6CogyHx_eWNxYB6EFY87ER1QjmVy2aIBjycI25B1TFVNpOY6_4XbDfWOc_th2dpEJ9_vp2tWnIWyQYvOO-TBtqmcGQd5rfwj9n2WD3hSEyrW/s1600/2000px-AirAsia_X_Logo.svg.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNrHuxXUbMO3viMla3SQSZdJ1IAxU4uYKg6CogyHx_eWNxYB6EFY87ER1QjmVy2aIBjycI25B1TFVNpOY6_4XbDfWOc_th2dpEJ9_vp2tWnIWyQYvOO-TBtqmcGQd5rfwj9n2WD3hSEyrW/s640/2000px-AirAsia_X_Logo.svg.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
基本上今天下午就出业绩了, 现在来做预测其实意义也不大。</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
本来已经放弃分享AA&AAX的预测了。。。</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
不过嘛, 时间允许的话就尽量坚持, 作为自己对公司营运思考的一种练习和验证,</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
通过老朋友们的反馈提升自己的判断能力。</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
更重要的是通过实际业绩来反复验证和提升自己对企业的认知。</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
基于之前i3有嫌疑借用预测推高股价之嫌(真心认为这是一种赞赏= =, 一天上千万股的量我一篇预测就推得动, 老衲真是前途无可限量), </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
这里就只在Blog 和自己的FBPage和大家分享好了, </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
选择在业绩出炉当天分享也算稍稍避嫌。</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
毕竟目的只是不断的通过文章和分析来记录自己的投资历程。</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
毕竟都是老朋友, 没有i3戾气这么重。年近不惑,没太大把握的事最好不要到处宣扬。</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
(这季度的Avg Fare真的没有太大把握, 有很大的预测成分)</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<!-- adsense -->
以下是较为保守VS乐观的预测:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIyPrQ0O35VMmkd_53sqtfzLnTtLc74Q-PRJZUglqrmKyDNENNawW0HHqBa_inWhv0lMOtwiMy40thCUMRFQpNQ_atBfXmkmRV0aNGe4rhJ81p_pBIRmCAhh7RI_HtP4CTCOJ8NLmKqOqj/s1600/AAX+2016q4+est+pt1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIyPrQ0O35VMmkd_53sqtfzLnTtLc74Q-PRJZUglqrmKyDNENNawW0HHqBa_inWhv0lMOtwiMy40thCUMRFQpNQ_atBfXmkmRV0aNGe4rhJ81p_pBIRmCAhh7RI_HtP4CTCOJ8NLmKqOqj/s640/AAX+2016q4+est+pt1.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1G0mY-rhVVshzT0pltiFHnTE1k3p90WNvgPYSNfQEvj7aYSLiJKI_iydatODGmRRZ1oVWfvWNwXccb8sgEBT3BS8MwbsXzUrm5zZuHDREaJnlOMNHcDUxB6xWNhWGbdCKek7CkS8OCa_V/s1600/AAX+2016q4+est+pt-2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1G0mY-rhVVshzT0pltiFHnTE1k3p90WNvgPYSNfQEvj7aYSLiJKI_iydatODGmRRZ1oVWfvWNwXccb8sgEBT3BS8MwbsXzUrm5zZuHDREaJnlOMNHcDUxB6xWNhWGbdCKek7CkS8OCa_V/s640/AAX+2016q4+est+pt-2.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
悲观Net Operating Profit 95m, PAT 4m </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
乐观 Net Opperating Profit 176m PAT 85m</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<ul>
<li>做悲观预测的目的是要了解最坏情况是否会亏损, 以个人来说, 我的预测是偏向乐观的。</li>
<li>AAX 油价官方所发2016 100%已hedge在56,不过保守起见预测偏高, 油价是最不担心的一部分。</li>
<li>Avg Fare是比较难预测的部分, 影响利润的幅度很大。 这里保守估计稍稍比去年下跌。 </li>
<li>Exchange Loss 按以前的Model, 基本上80-90m跑不掉</li>
<li>Fleet Size没有增加, 预计不会出现太大的Deffer Tax Gain</li>
<li>以上的乐观预测, 其实只是稍微乐观, 我心里期待着惊喜的, 可能出现惊喜的部分就是Avg Fare&Ancillary Rev. 还有Staff Cost. 其他项目估计和预测变化不会太大。</li>
</ul>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
后话:</h3>
<div>
基本撇开Exchange Loss, 无论如何这都是很不错的Qtr.</div>
<div>
如果Q4实际业绩是偏向乐观的话, 2017Q1和明年总体业绩就有很多想象空间了。</div>
<div>
当然, 这和打算短暂持有的朋友, 受到Exchange Loss大幅影响的Q4业绩市场会如何反应, 其实就很难说了。</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
关于预测方法有兴趣的朋友可以参考上篇分析:</div>
<div>
<a href="http://e-thg.blogspot.sg/2016/11/aax16q3.html" target="_blank">http://e-thg.blogspot.sg/2016/11/aax16q3.html</a></div>
<div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
</div>
</div>
<br />
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">卍</span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">個人分析記錄</span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">買賣盈虧自負</span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">分析若有錯誤</span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">勞煩提點指出</span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><o:p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Facebook PAGE: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth</a><o:p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: 宋体; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">股海無涯</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> Blog: <a href="http://e-thg.blogspot.com/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">http://e-thg.blogspot.com/</a><o:p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></o:p></span></div>
</div>
Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-56907896960142541712017-02-15T10:39:00.002+08:002017-02-15T10:39:43.392+08:00【分享】資匯2016年12月棕油追踪 (鲜果串,原棕油产量变化,总种植面积,已种植面积数据)<div class="_2cuy _3dgx _2vxa" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #1d2129; direction: ltr; font-size: 17px; line-height: 28px; margin: 0px auto 28px; white-space: pre-wrap; width: 700px; word-wrap: break-word;">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3UiXivL61dCiGMNUD3MQFiPCMdSdmJdfCRwTiL5rOU265rQtukQCXlW_ttKjo-yiESCUtzdY-2blANeOdMJBg0GyppcFxCnp_kUIj4uP6xrcTISOOw5E92abZFBySizJIOGGYZBOaiIg5/s1600/Palm-fruit-oil.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="372" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3UiXivL61dCiGMNUD3MQFiPCMdSdmJdfCRwTiL5rOU265rQtukQCXlW_ttKjo-yiESCUtzdY-2blANeOdMJBg0GyppcFxCnp_kUIj4uP6xrcTISOOw5E92abZFBySizJIOGGYZBOaiIg5/s640/Palm-fruit-oil.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
<!-- adsense -->
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5s7A7_rYDKWxtlgFMqz72ZfWM4L4qTX5CiRGkaMF53Sxdc72rhP4csGMVHLauUao1qw1AR_t6592PzG9Vo6DZUwJrNTbl_9OSQ7adGWLN6-3ww2fcDLZxhWmGRnbdQTYv32_9Wj865Bmh/s1600/%25E6%25A3%2595%25E6%25B2%25B9%25E8%25BF%25BD%25E8%25B8%25AA+16-12.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5s7A7_rYDKWxtlgFMqz72ZfWM4L4qTX5CiRGkaMF53Sxdc72rhP4csGMVHLauUao1qw1AR_t6592PzG9Vo6DZUwJrNTbl_9OSQ7adGWLN6-3ww2fcDLZxhWmGRnbdQTYv32_9Wj865Bmh/s640/%25E6%25A3%2595%25E6%25B2%25B9%25E8%25BF%25BD%25E8%25B8%25AA+16-12.jpg" width="494" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">油棕价钱大起, 很大程度是厄尔尼诺造成产量、供应上的不足。 加上政府最近增加了油棕出口税冲12月6%上调到现在7.5%, 对各公司有不同影响。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: helvetica neue, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">整体来说是正面的, 不过还是要细心观察那些公司值得买进, 树龄和产量都处在上升阶段的自然是首选。 </span><br />
<span style="font-family: helvetica neue, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: helvetica neue, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">从上表可以发现到, 很多公司的油棕产量和去年、上季相比都是下跌的, 可以从中找出较有潜力的公司。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">资汇-棕油追踪资汇每月提供马股棕油公司的数据可为股友们提供一些参考, 希望对大家有用。</span></div>
<div class="_2cuy _3dgx _2vxa" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #1d2129; direction: ltr; font-size: 17px; line-height: 28px; margin: 0px auto 28px; white-space: pre-wrap; width: 700px; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">如图太小请right click上图-Open Image in new tab
老規矩,免費分享, 情理上幫人家打點廣告,里面很多统计数据与分析都很不错。
【資匯】FB page: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/%E8%B3%87%E5%8C%AF-The-busy-weekly/183843371625918" style="color: #365899; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;">https://www.facebook.com/pages/%E8%B3%87%E5%8C%AF-The-busy-weekly/183843371625918</a></span></div>
<div class="_2cuy _3dgx _2vxa" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #1d2129; direction: ltr; font-size: 17px; line-height: 28px; margin: 0px auto 28px; white-space: pre-wrap; width: 700px; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">有興趣訂閱【資匯】的:<a href="http://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fbusyweekly.newspaperdirect.com%2Fepaper%2Fviewer.aspx&h=1AQEAueNN&s=1" rel="nofollow" style="color: #365899; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">http://busyweekly.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx</a></span></div>
<div class="_2cuy _3dgx _2vxa" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #1d2129; direction: ltr; font-size: 17px; line-height: 28px; margin: 0px auto 28px; white-space: pre-wrap; width: 700px; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">實體報章各大7-11能賣到
</span></div>
<div class="_2cuy _3dgx _2vxa" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #1d2129; direction: ltr; font-size: 17px; line-height: 28px; margin: 0px auto 28px; white-space: pre-wrap; width: 700px; word-wrap: break-word;">
<h4 style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 0.6em; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal;">
<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">卍個人分析記錄</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">買賣盈虧自負</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">分析若有錯誤</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">勞煩提點指出</b></h4>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">Facebook PAGE:</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth</a><o:p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: "open sans"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal;">
<div style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">股海無涯</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "open sans"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"> Blog:</b><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><a href="http://e-thg.blogspot.com/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">http://e-thg.blogspot.com/</a></span></div>
<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">Twitter: </b><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Endless_Wv" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/Endless_Wv</a></span></div>
</div>
<br />Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-29101248019983248772017-02-15T02:49:00.002+08:002017-02-15T02:49:40.124+08:00每一个承诺都曾是真心, 也许背弃承诺, 只是无力履行。 <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbTX3tCm5Ffid1xfhiPSlmmBzWv8qFPsLWtuXjIXvZddQKU7HMyjC1RdY1SLqhLKYlzxy4XMt0dlIQkqdbMAK-0gVjtKzvBupnwPMT4tC0GdXpZpkcYosxSD4mN_MgVeklISSq7tEUHO9y/s1600/12040B226-0.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbTX3tCm5Ffid1xfhiPSlmmBzWv8qFPsLWtuXjIXvZddQKU7HMyjC1RdY1SLqhLKYlzxy4XMt0dlIQkqdbMAK-0gVjtKzvBupnwPMT4tC0GdXpZpkcYosxSD4mN_MgVeklISSq7tEUHO9y/s640/12040B226-0.jpg" width="640" /></a>情人节看到大家都在秀恩爱, 突然想起之前网上看过的的一段话:
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
每一个承诺都曾是真心, 也许背弃承诺, 只是无力履行。</blockquote>
承诺这种事情, 很多时候, 在当时都是真心真意的, 但随着时间越来越长, 承诺的力量就越来越薄弱。 到最后变成了遗憾。<br />
<br />
曾今有个兄弟,和女友感情上已经渐行渐远, 性格和相处上都出现了很大的分歧。<br />
曾经的承诺, 也成为女孩与男孩争吵的导火线。 最后搞到一哭二闹三上吊, 情人变仇人, 令人不胜唏嘘。<br />
<br />
当时的真心真意, 换来了继续痛苦或互相仇恨的两难局面。<br />
<br />
当然这里不去做道德批判, 孰是孰非, 本不是局外人三言两语说得清。<br />
感情这种东西, 本来就是剪不断, 理还乱。<br />
<br />
这就是为什么大家常说“ Do not fall in love with a Stock”<br />
一旦牵涉感情, 理性判断自然就会变得困难。<br />
<br />
其实撇开感情和道德批判, 当已经出现无法弥补的裂痕, 就应该当机立断, 好聚好散。<br />
<br />
这就是最符合双方客观上最大利益的一种方法。<br />
<br />
这也是为什么我觉得投资比谈恋爱容易的多。<br />
<br />
你不必对你的持股有任何感情, 因为你的股票不会因为你持有他而感激你, 也不会因为你卖掉它而憎恨你。你不会因为投入另一只股票的怀抱而遭到道德批判或者情感上的自责。<br />
<br />
一切的规律在于股票是否会能够创造合理的回酬与价值。<br />
<br />
投资的路上也会碰到很多承诺,<br />
比如公司和管理层各种伟大远景的描绘。<br />
<br />
想起你描述梦想天堂的样子<br />
指着远方画出一栋一栋房子<br />
<br />
其实一直提醒自己客观看待, 投资路上走久了, 会发现很多承诺,<br />
<br />
很多时候并不是虚假, 而是比预测的时间更长,<br />
很多时候不是刻意欺瞒, 而是力有不逮。<br />
很多时候不是信口雌黄, 而是计划赶不上市场变化。<br />
<br />
当然, 恶意误导投资者也是时有所闻。<br />
交易所的监管本来就能力有限。<br />
<br />
认认真真的回归基础去研究行业格局与竞争优势, 对承诺抽丝剥茧, 才能了解一家公司是否有足够的底气去支撑那样的承诺。<br />
<br />
<br />
维系感情的只是一份承诺, 一段感情注定难以开花结果。<br />
支撑投资决定的如果也只是一份管理层的承诺, 这项投资也注定是一场豪赌。。。<br />
<br />
<br />
P.s: 闲聊贴, 祝他家情人节快乐, 投资愉快 =DEndlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-86074156962426426072017-01-19T15:04:00.000+08:002017-01-19T15:15:34.280+08:00【分享】資匯2016年11月棕油追踪 (鲜果串,原棕油产量变化,总种植面积,已种植面积数据)<div class="_2cuy _3dgx _2vxa" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #1d2129; direction: ltr; font-size: 17px; line-height: 28px; margin: 0px auto 28px; white-space: pre-wrap; width: 700px; word-wrap: break-word;">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3UiXivL61dCiGMNUD3MQFiPCMdSdmJdfCRwTiL5rOU265rQtukQCXlW_ttKjo-yiESCUtzdY-2blANeOdMJBg0GyppcFxCnp_kUIj4uP6xrcTISOOw5E92abZFBySizJIOGGYZBOaiIg5/s1600/Palm-fruit-oil.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="372" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3UiXivL61dCiGMNUD3MQFiPCMdSdmJdfCRwTiL5rOU265rQtukQCXlW_ttKjo-yiESCUtzdY-2blANeOdMJBg0GyppcFxCnp_kUIj4uP6xrcTISOOw5E92abZFBySizJIOGGYZBOaiIg5/s640/Palm-fruit-oil.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
<!-- adsense -->
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdFWCHSctw0nG89qAvpYa8mV2hR9uN9Bm308KwAn6iJMx0fhsmI6OAwjisEEg4h-nexOh8-K73HIcNRQqWI4Q3epks7Y-w9qygVH94E5dTETWW-SovWPTEdVK32PF6NKxXr-CifPxjjQ2c/s1600/%25E6%25A3%2595%25E6%25B2%25B9%25E8%25BF%25BD%25E8%25B8%25AA+16-11.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdFWCHSctw0nG89qAvpYa8mV2hR9uN9Bm308KwAn6iJMx0fhsmI6OAwjisEEg4h-nexOh8-K73HIcNRQqWI4Q3epks7Y-w9qygVH94E5dTETWW-SovWPTEdVK32PF6NKxXr-CifPxjjQ2c/s640/%25E6%25A3%2595%25E6%25B2%25B9%25E8%25BF%25BD%25E8%25B8%25AA+16-11.jpg" width="404" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">2016M11 棕油追踪</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">资汇-棕油追踪资汇每月提供马股棕油公司的数据可为股友们提供一些参考, 希望对大家有用。</span></div>
<div class="_2cuy _3dgx _2vxa" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #1d2129; direction: ltr; font-size: 17px; line-height: 28px; margin: 0px auto 28px; white-space: pre-wrap; width: 700px; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">如图太小请right click上图-Open Image in new tab
老規矩,免費分享, 情理上幫人家打點廣告,里面很多统计数据与分析都很不错。
【資匯】FB page: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/%E8%B3%87%E5%8C%AF-The-busy-weekly/183843371625918" style="color: #365899; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;">https://www.facebook.com/pages/%E8%B3%87%E5%8C%AF-The-busy-weekly/183843371625918</a></span></div>
<div class="_2cuy _3dgx _2vxa" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #1d2129; direction: ltr; font-size: 17px; line-height: 28px; margin: 0px auto 28px; white-space: pre-wrap; width: 700px; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">有興趣訂閱【資匯】的:<a href="http://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fbusyweekly.newspaperdirect.com%2Fepaper%2Fviewer.aspx&h=1AQEAueNN&s=1" rel="nofollow" style="color: #365899; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">http://busyweekly.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx</a></span></div>
<div class="_2cuy _3dgx _2vxa" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #1d2129; direction: ltr; font-size: 17px; line-height: 28px; margin: 0px auto 28px; white-space: pre-wrap; width: 700px; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">實體報章各大7-11能賣到
</span></div>
<div class="_2cuy _3dgx _2vxa" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #1d2129; direction: ltr; font-size: 17px; line-height: 28px; margin: 0px auto 28px; white-space: pre-wrap; width: 700px; word-wrap: break-word;">
<h4 style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 0.6em; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal;">
<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">卍個人分析記錄</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">買賣盈虧自負</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">分析若有錯誤</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">勞煩提點指出</b></h4>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">Facebook PAGE:</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth</a><o:p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: "open sans"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal;">
<div style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">股海無涯</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "open sans"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"> Blog:</b><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><a href="http://e-thg.blogspot.com/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">http://e-thg.blogspot.com/</a></span></div>
<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">Twitter: </b><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Endless_Wv" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/Endless_Wv</a></span></div>
</div>
Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-44786425389658123152017-01-18T20:15:00.000+08:002017-01-18T23:01:56.604+08:00【AIRASIA】管理层与投行会议视频记录Youtube分享,综合新闻&争议参考意见<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWZpBRam4Vsnj2xVmzbDTDazltRYy64qX8jop8XoiNDpEvt3SkSVgQDjUxdInZhA5hqTVVVEIdsBrVqJGoaZLBP3n-zzcEkfBYY8H35CelDPX7t5i2PEDT7Gx74wyXA0j_4AzcMuix3o8Z/s1600/air-asia-red-hot-sale.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWZpBRam4Vsnj2xVmzbDTDazltRYy64qX8jop8XoiNDpEvt3SkSVgQDjUxdInZhA5hqTVVVEIdsBrVqJGoaZLBP3n-zzcEkfBYY8H35CelDPX7t5i2PEDT7Gx74wyXA0j_4AzcMuix3o8Z/s640/air-asia-red-hot-sale.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/sB4skUqNJAQ/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sB4skUqNJAQ?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<br />
<!-- adsense -->
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;">Episode 8 : 3Q2016 Analyst & Investors Earnings Briefing</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">我是AA的小股东和支持者,FB Page的老朋友们都知道, </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;">所以最近股价跌到2.17收到很多PM关心, 也聊了很多对最近新闻很各大投资论坛的一些分享。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">基本上聊到的话题焦点都比较集中在最近比较火的几个话题。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">由于Pm有点多, 问题也基本重复, 这里综合大概回复一下几个<b><span style="font-size: large;">我认为</span></b>正确的资讯和资料来源。</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
<!-- adsense -->
<br />
<h3>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><b>AAC销售状况与阶段</b></span></h3>
<div>
时间和进度基本上如下(视频4:50&24:10):</div>
<ol>
<li><span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">5 Dec 收到各投行Non Binding Bid</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Open DATA room for verifying</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Firm Bid by March</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">根据Banker的预计一切顺利最早4月完成脱售, 当然期间几个长假很有可能会拖慢进度</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">脱售按Tony的说法是一定会在2017年</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">按11月24号的资讯总共有9个Bid, 其中2个希望亚航继续持有20%, 另外7个打算全额收购,</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">据说12月5号实际的Bid超过9个, 不过没有确定的新闻可考证。</span></span></li>
</ol>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<h3>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;">900亿债务,折旧与假账</span></h3>
</div>
<div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #545454; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">You are neither </span><span style="color: #6a6a6a; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-weight: bold;">right nor wrong</span><span style="color: #545454; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"> because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your </span><span style="color: #6a6a6a; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-weight: bold;">data</span><span style="color: #545454; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"> and reasoning are right. --Benjamin Graham</span></span></span></blockquote>
<br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">把Capital Commitment当成假账并且质疑折旧有问题的指控,对会计和Annual Report有基本认识的人都不会犯这样的错误。</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Capital Commitment是一家公司和供应商有协议在未来将会投入的Capital, 主要是Airasia和Airbus 签订的400架飞机订单, 还包括一些引擎和飞机维修合约。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">那是未来10-15年的订单, 而且部分飞机会转让给AAC, 列如最新订购的100架A321, 有30架就是指定给AAC.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">认为要自己赚或者借贷900亿来接收全部机队, 只能说对航空公司的基本行业格局和商业模式认识不足。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">胡乱诠释数据来作为投资依据,就像一个人拿着燃烧的</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">火把,在穿过一个铺满火药的火药厂</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">,</span><wbr style="font-family: arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">或许最后你还活着,但是最后的结果,你依然还是一个睁着眼的傻子</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">可能是别人的看法太高深, 反正我是看不懂这种指控, 只能选择忽略不计。</span></span></span><br />
<br /></div>
<h3>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></h3>
<h3>
</h3>
<h3 style="font-size: medium;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">2017年Overcapacity</span></span></h3>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">有报章引述MAS CEO Peter Bellew的Interview说2017年Malaysia会增加40架飞机(亚航 x28架,Malindo x10架, Mas x2), 这报道有错误。</span></span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">实际情况是亚航的28架是Airasia Group的增加数量而不是MAA增加28架。 </span></span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">分配情况是</span></span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">MAA X 7/8, </span></span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">TAA X6, </span></span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">IAA X2,</span></span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">PAA X4,</span></span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">AAI X8. (参考视频19:20) </span></span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">不过按照CAPA 1月16号的报道, 最新Fleet plan是增加32架, 包括订单中的11架A320neo&6架A320ceo, 另外租赁15架A320ceo, 不过会归还3架租赁到期的飞机, 说以总机队增长是32-3=29. 不过29架飞机如何分配没有详细说明, 估计和视频计划差别不大。</span></span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<a href="https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/airasia-group-fleet-analysis-expansion-to-resume-in-2017-with-32-deliveries-including-15-new-leases-321811" style="font-family: roboto, arial, sans-serif;" target="_blank">https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/airasia-group-fleet-analysis-expansion-to-resume-in-2017-with-32-deliveries-including-15-new-leases-321811</a></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuv6_NRcUN6LaHQORIbC6EMQj1vMVJyXvqvU5fM3kSRchZT1OccNLBwtigSGSxQdXV16zFjOHshE8R96Di298ZT375cw5cMVGGyWTv_XU5jkStMPn8ks4Y6lCUzL4QLvpDrntzx3n7S1QW/s1600/AA+aircraft+order+plan.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuv6_NRcUN6LaHQORIbC6EMQj1vMVJyXvqvU5fM3kSRchZT1OccNLBwtigSGSxQdXV16zFjOHshE8R96Di298ZT375cw5cMVGGyWTv_XU5jkStMPn8ks4Y6lCUzL4QLvpDrntzx3n7S1QW/s640/AA+aircraft+order+plan.PNG" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">OCT2016 数据, 2017年有修改计划, 接收更多的飞机</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"></span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;">MALINDO大量增加机队是事实, </span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;">从16年初27架增加15架, </span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;">2017年底机队是42架, </span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;">预计到2018年底会增加另外10架飞机</span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"></span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;">不过其实仔细了解, 新增的15架飞机里面有5架是ATR72-600, 也就是座位68-72的螺旋桨飞机, 只能在Subang和其他小型机场起降, 新加坡只能在Seletar Airport降落。</span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"></span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;">Malindo现有42架飞机里面有16架是ATR72机型.</span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"></span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;">Capacity的确是有点Over了, 可是影响没有直观感觉增加15架飞机来的那么严重。</span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;">而且Malindo ATR机型主要是在Subang机场和Firefly竞争, 也造成Firefly为了面对竞争不得在减少5台ATR飞机, 整体来说对MAS来说可能压力大点。</span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/malaysia-airlines-subsidiary-firefly-reduces-atr-fleet-as-competition-with-malindo-intensifies-319658" target="_blank">https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/malaysia-airlines-subsidiary-firefly-reduces-atr-fleet-as-competition-with-malindo-intensifies-319658</a></span></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;">而且从去年中开始Malindo转移到KLIA, 从Hybrid Airline转型Full Services Airline, 相对来说可能对MAS的冲击要来的更大(KLIA和Subang机场重叠, 转型Full Service)。</span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"></span></div>
<div style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;">Overcapacity带来的竞争肯定有, 不管直接间接, 谁都逃不掉,这里我只提供数据, 实际情况大家请自己观察判断。</span></div>
</h3>
<h3>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">USD/MYR汇率影响</span></span></h3>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"></span></span><br />
<div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";">
</div>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">
</span></span>
<br />
<ul><span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">
<li>66-67%USD Hedge(borrowing Cost)</li>
<li>50% USD non borrowing cost hedge up to 2Q17</li>
<li>每10cent USD/MYR增值会大概影响20m的Net Profit</li>
</span></span></ul>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">
<br />
</span></span><br />
<div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";">
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;">(</span><span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;">参考视频 39:00,46:40&Q316 presentation</span><span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;">)</span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">
</span></span>
<br />
<div>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">
</span></span>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">
</span></span></div>
<h3>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Q4业绩情况</span></span></h3>
<ul>
<li>BEST Quater of the years(Revenue wise),</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>所有Associate Company第一次同时盈利赚钱</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>预计Load Factor 92%</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Net Profit Tony叫你自行脑补</li>
</ul>
(参考视频29:00)<br />
<br />
<div>
<h3>
</h3>
<h3>
Listing of Indonesia&Philippine, Dual Listing in HK</h3>
<ul>
<li>会先计划在2017Q1让Indonesia &Philippine 上市,之后才进行Hongkong Dual Listing</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Tony希望4月30他53岁生日那天Hongkong上市, 个人认为有点不太可能, 今年能顺利上市就谢天谢地了。</li>
</ul>
(参考视频38:00)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br />
<br />
<h3>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">AIRASIA为什么大跌?</span></span></h3>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;">汇率,Overcapacity, 油价, Trump... BLA bla bla</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<h3>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">AIRASIA为什么大起?</span></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">= = 施主, 股市不是跌就是起, 老衲无能为力,放过我吧 =D</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<h2>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">总结</span></span></h2>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">这里尽量不做过多判断, 希望可以在最近这市场么多杂音中分享正确资讯(我认为正确的), </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">其实投资了一段时间, 可以发现本地报章的新闻很多不是一手的, 有时候可能为了哗众取宠, 讯息又转了一手, 或者翻译之后, 时常发现和被访者的原意有出入。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">对于AA, 我建议可以看Bloomberg&CAPA, </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;">尤其是访问视频,</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;">作为一个跟进AA 3年多的股东, 基本上没有发现报道失真问题。其他的我尽量在找到源头之前当做参考资料。</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">The Edge也有一些一手访问还不错,</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">各大中文报章基本上是转载加翻译, 有双重失真风险。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">还有</span>管理层与投行会议视频记录,个人感觉真的太好了。 让散户在很大程度上在资讯渠道上更接近投行</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;">(完全接近是不可能, 散户要认散户的命)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">以上主要是要确定正确资讯, 不是判断或者结论, 这样才能在同样的资讯平台展开理性判断,</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">可以支持, 可以反对, 可以认为Tony在车大炮,可以认为视频里都是请来演戏的, 也可以认为航空业不确定因素和风险太大, 我的看法是投资本来就没有绝对和0风险这回事。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">重要的是, 平台统一讨论才有意义。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span>
就像有人跟你说他從南天門一直砍到蓬萊路來回砍了三天三夜是血流成河可我就是手起刀落手起刀落手起刀落一眼都沒眨過<br />
<br />
你却问他那麼長時間不眨眼睛,難道眼睛不會乾嗎?<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">讨论重点不同, 再多时间也是徒然。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">主要是抛砖迎玉, 欢迎集思广益, 有错误和过期资讯请不吝赐教。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<h4 style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 0.6em; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">卍個人分析記錄</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">買賣盈虧自負</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">分析若有錯誤</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">勞煩提點指出</b></h4>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">Facebook PAGE:</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth</a><o:p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<div style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">股海無涯</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "open sans"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"> Blog:</b><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><a href="http://e-thg.blogspot.com/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">http://e-thg.blogspot.com/</a></span></div>
<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">Twitter: </b><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Endless_Wv" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">https://twitter.com/Endless_Wv</a></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "roboto" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 20px;"><br /></span></span></div>
Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-68313915679078769692016-12-29T16:59:00.000+08:002016-12-29T17:28:42.607+08:00【分享】資匯2016年国内&国外大事件<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
2016年已经接近尾声, </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
希望大家今年有好成绩, 也在2017年, 更上一层楼。</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
不管成绩好坏, 只要还有打算走投资这条路, </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
那一定要好好回顾今年最对, 做错的决定,</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
好好检讨, 不要浪费了一张张血汗钱 换来的宝贵经验。</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
这里借花献佛, 资汇总结了2016国内外每月大事, 配合股价走势, 希望帮助大家回顾、检讨自己这一年的表现可以节省一点时间。</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR3-dO3lxmTEarhEvW08OCxE_S3t7dfhqqY5aIkBEy-QSDgrxVkN5pjl8OCeETGCk6pKx_RSVYmQPMghgKgtTVfJDyIsVReArEW8DBZrujIxRe90Z5WsefI6w9zgAK1WSHcBJKtsrVqeaQ/s1600/Binder1_Page_1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR3-dO3lxmTEarhEvW08OCxE_S3t7dfhqqY5aIkBEy-QSDgrxVkN5pjl8OCeETGCk6pKx_RSVYmQPMghgKgtTVfJDyIsVReArEW8DBZrujIxRe90Z5WsefI6w9zgAK1WSHcBJKtsrVqeaQ/s640/Binder1_Page_1.jpg" width="492" /></a></div>
<!-- adsense -->
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgj2NZfUWifzvgrRQY16r35OIGHFVLW1AID97pnVt9fLKRxckFU5BVOX5TAGBSvNGCVeKAy-HiCQKCCGFJLu3bw-eGdZkav89QOsqf_kP5pmTn1Tt2YsiFytEN9WBfdfwU16jLDk5-UljWN/s1600/Binder1_Page_2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgj2NZfUWifzvgrRQY16r35OIGHFVLW1AID97pnVt9fLKRxckFU5BVOX5TAGBSvNGCVeKAy-HiCQKCCGFJLu3bw-eGdZkav89QOsqf_kP5pmTn1Tt2YsiFytEN9WBfdfwU16jLDk5-UljWN/s640/Binder1_Page_2.jpg" width="492" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZCHFJf6_JU8peZ7xojiSNUJU_hf7oPUkHleivFwmzUuD_l-q6K3Zv7ga5ghyZJYGI5ilU751ukbwP_zmlbSQeoQeESLphrO34Z6KyqDo97Y3Hr_PiOZFqVyb-ulQanhVeAZrIawtHhOFo/s1600/%25E8%25B5%2584%25E6%25B1%2587+-+2016%25E5%259B%25BD%25E5%25A4%2596%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E4%25BA%258B%25E4%25BB%25B6.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZCHFJf6_JU8peZ7xojiSNUJU_hf7oPUkHleivFwmzUuD_l-q6K3Zv7ga5ghyZJYGI5ilU751ukbwP_zmlbSQeoQeESLphrO34Z6KyqDo97Y3Hr_PiOZFqVyb-ulQanhVeAZrIawtHhOFo/s640/%25E8%25B5%2584%25E6%25B1%2587+-+2016%25E5%259B%25BD%25E5%25A4%2596%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E4%25BA%258B%25E4%25BB%25B6.jpg" width="494" /></a></div>
<br />Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-90715269937335359332016-11-30T10:54:00.001+08:002016-11-30T11:42:02.868+08:00【分享】資匯2016年11月50之最 (預測本益比最低,股息率最佳,預測盈利最佳公司)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtOTqSchus_LTl1LFQrzko4xBHjzyTA6gXbMfphMUicfTQy9J_oY2ehZo7VzEZ7iEUtBOy33yGSXoUDPtZB4ezab5OE0K4XuZvrlVoyXKCezrJ49lDIdYJSIAtqZ34u7hMZmw67myld4se/s1600/Busyweekly+screen920x920.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtOTqSchus_LTl1LFQrzko4xBHjzyTA6gXbMfphMUicfTQy9J_oY2ehZo7VzEZ7iEUtBOy33yGSXoUDPtZB4ezab5OE0K4XuZvrlVoyXKCezrJ49lDIdYJSIAtqZ34u7hMZmw67myld4se/s320/Busyweekly+screen920x920.jpeg" width="244" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIPbXh72B5cGB3xUCBhOn3ZGSdvO5_SOIFOuUSDMyCrYvBuPwT6CEGagcX5lK5FYbS8At1dx5MQGI4KOr0nSLxdX5vkLQz83r5xrRZYdS92kSiIDPLcuc7vHYnv9WNRW0iejAUk3Mh-Ewf/s1600/Nov+top+50.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIPbXh72B5cGB3xUCBhOn3ZGSdvO5_SOIFOuUSDMyCrYvBuPwT6CEGagcX5lK5FYbS8At1dx5MQGI4KOr0nSLxdX5vkLQz83r5xrRZYdS92kSiIDPLcuc7vHYnv9WNRW0iejAUk3Mh-Ewf/s640/Nov+top+50.jpg" width="494" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">資匯<span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">16年11月 </span>50之最</b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<!-- adsense -->
<br />
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">【分享】資匯<span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">16年11月-</span>50之最 (預測本益比最低,股息率最佳,預測盈利最佳公司)</b></div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /></div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">本益比绝非判断企业价值的单一/唯一指标, 仅供参考.</b><br />
<span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12.8px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;"></span><br />
<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
<ul><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12.8px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="text-align: left;">真个11月美国大选后腥风血雨, 恭喜有先前的施主们, 又是年终大减价的时候了。。。。</li>
<li style="text-align: left;">50最大市值, 明年或许会大洗牌吧。。。</li>
<li style="text-align: left;">最近的业绩, 大有风雨欲来风满楼的趋势</li>
</span></ul>
</div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /></div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /></div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
老規矩,免費分享, 情理上幫人家打點廣告,里面很多统计数据与分析都很不错。</div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /></div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
【資匯】FB page: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/%E8%B3%87%E5%8C%AF-The-busy-weekly/183843371625918" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #303030; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/pages/%E8%B3%87%E5%8C%AF-The-busy-weekly/183843371625918</a></div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
有興趣訂閱【資匯】的:<a href="http://busyweekly.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #303030; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">http://busyweekly.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx</a></div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
實體報章各大7-11能賣到</div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /></div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /></div>
<h4 style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0.6em; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
</h4>
<h4 style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0.6em; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">卍個人分析記錄</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">買賣盈虧自負</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">分析若有錯誤</b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">勞煩提點指出</b></h4>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">Facebook PAGE:</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth">https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth</a><o:p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<div style="color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit;">
<span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">股海無涯</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "open sans"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"> Blog:</b><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><a href="http://e-thg.blogspot.com/">http://e-thg.blogspot.com/</a></span></div>
<b style="color: #444444; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit;">Twitter: </b><span style="color: #444444;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Endless_Wv">https://twitter.com/Endless_Wv</a></span></div>
Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-40408851343407223152016-11-25T23:09:00.003+08:002016-11-26T12:51:33.719+08:00【分享】42 Uncovering Gems In An Undervalued Market 4/4<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBpm8xvX5pH90xzalqhexwFDXGQR_QHt_eWQt_rc9N-7aTrVHkaP_5-v_F_m5Ml105vtEOLM74YUPwDxGOhfJ6NBvL8jhCP75z9M-OD1utS7jP-rYF1GpracLAJgUl15lk0leqwhK5a23r/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_087.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBpm8xvX5pH90xzalqhexwFDXGQR_QHt_eWQt_rc9N-7aTrVHkaP_5-v_F_m5Ml105vtEOLM74YUPwDxGOhfJ6NBvL8jhCP75z9M-OD1utS7jP-rYF1GpracLAJgUl15lk0leqwhK5a23r/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_087.jpg" width="480" /></a><br />
<a name='more'></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfrJJKCLfX_3p7k0rkU8Tdg-mX1OX5eQ_doYLtqAojErVbvq0xESlhrlY7FOcNi-QrgGCBPjxbrvQDPoyYnmW0ME8PXQplKVgqrS2y0IGiN3A95WopEQGeXm8QTkySJwYZkxQ9wqnWerEi/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_088.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfrJJKCLfX_3p7k0rkU8Tdg-mX1OX5eQ_doYLtqAojErVbvq0xESlhrlY7FOcNi-QrgGCBPjxbrvQDPoyYnmW0ME8PXQplKVgqrS2y0IGiN3A95WopEQGeXm8QTkySJwYZkxQ9wqnWerEi/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_088.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3_8DwjFtZMs0QmrAinxr0HXJiClMM0VlM8p3umZUE3kop02EBmOTt3pomxaUiZjXm3BXQnoICcdzTgyBitPinJkTAtldS_7LydaEhJlWvz90rBd2AtjDW4jE4_5uEOqRyDV7NBVQyazqQ/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_089.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3_8DwjFtZMs0QmrAinxr0HXJiClMM0VlM8p3umZUE3kop02EBmOTt3pomxaUiZjXm3BXQnoICcdzTgyBitPinJkTAtldS_7LydaEhJlWvz90rBd2AtjDW4jE4_5uEOqRyDV7NBVQyazqQ/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_089.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhL-MRXhgdl9V44cYXxgZkhy19lKeSVedzDv4PGo3y2Wfe81du33X48KpIrV1_3DHgDHL1WcsVd-YaH3SuJrNjvfUNtHMwMTOOz6ZadKMGDI8nmRu5hoKwl761QIVxL3x0-DdzVtYoQeBYo/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_090.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhL-MRXhgdl9V44cYXxgZkhy19lKeSVedzDv4PGo3y2Wfe81du33X48KpIrV1_3DHgDHL1WcsVd-YaH3SuJrNjvfUNtHMwMTOOz6ZadKMGDI8nmRu5hoKwl761QIVxL3x0-DdzVtYoQeBYo/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_090.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRpZsEOiY9NqgXNG01etU_iM2FV7XS9dpWtNZDhhkZtBBS26_QH2jgvRtv4h26ZZxds0pcBaFIdhtxT3ZI0gp3URmCA4Y9a4p6sD5C7A3SOdLhtIlCisUtfIXP27OrNGGzsabyH1wMcGB3/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_091.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRpZsEOiY9NqgXNG01etU_iM2FV7XS9dpWtNZDhhkZtBBS26_QH2jgvRtv4h26ZZxds0pcBaFIdhtxT3ZI0gp3URmCA4Y9a4p6sD5C7A3SOdLhtIlCisUtfIXP27OrNGGzsabyH1wMcGB3/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_091.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIE73TcEqsm9IO_zyt6Tw6cnJe5gLkHw76aHjZgSDqanP1qKuWm1vAkwPvoPYC7f8nxWlY0_jJuPqfygVk0alZjG5C0x7OdHDBJ9h9SgBLSvZMf668_brnJKDBs2Ea2AZtrov_4FCCRFCB/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_092.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIE73TcEqsm9IO_zyt6Tw6cnJe5gLkHw76aHjZgSDqanP1qKuWm1vAkwPvoPYC7f8nxWlY0_jJuPqfygVk0alZjG5C0x7OdHDBJ9h9SgBLSvZMf668_brnJKDBs2Ea2AZtrov_4FCCRFCB/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_092.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEib5OC6GYpEWkreGZQuzBEwk4al_0WZhOns6EBRxVgXLPG_o1b6K9vhfWaHSfS9njNT_XgVSrTpU4w0ap-XtmhnN1CdaJvQUvZQi7GHMmK2RxgwZlPijNkItiw6appyHpJc8-Hwj6fh8QQM/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_093.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEib5OC6GYpEWkreGZQuzBEwk4al_0WZhOns6EBRxVgXLPG_o1b6K9vhfWaHSfS9njNT_XgVSrTpU4w0ap-XtmhnN1CdaJvQUvZQi7GHMmK2RxgwZlPijNkItiw6appyHpJc8-Hwj6fh8QQM/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_093.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsgDeyL9fdeOm3FRkXaladCcfMwob_FAciJ8y5apKICLJ2kg0-tVFoRuU3MotCGHU3VJOwyNaWWy8T9tAcUS2rfhncedKc0FQaeNrueOtzz919M-XyC-tvqQCpUp8L6hNkO-Dorxr12Q2d/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_094.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsgDeyL9fdeOm3FRkXaladCcfMwob_FAciJ8y5apKICLJ2kg0-tVFoRuU3MotCGHU3VJOwyNaWWy8T9tAcUS2rfhncedKc0FQaeNrueOtzz919M-XyC-tvqQCpUp8L6hNkO-Dorxr12Q2d/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_094.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7mVbQeL51KNaacXnYpiqyfOzb7c-3QSmk2KUNJjJmMDhpto6quToFYILgXgZ_yRuKTvuVcxCMXvZ3v6vjpboDz4fcgvYbJWbXnGz0SAYHRdynAUcwuBib4Ze7gXGcZCkixOegGO1N3Kbr/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_095.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7mVbQeL51KNaacXnYpiqyfOzb7c-3QSmk2KUNJjJmMDhpto6quToFYILgXgZ_yRuKTvuVcxCMXvZ3v6vjpboDz4fcgvYbJWbXnGz0SAYHRdynAUcwuBib4Ze7gXGcZCkixOegGO1N3Kbr/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_095.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOckGQFE-kUV22Uw4TvJv8XbiDuVbmVZ6mtxGjPY-gvnisNjpYM53zZ_wYq7nTfJ08NNGHwffGEIcIsRVRymin3QF173Z0V4skanfMNrldcknW_ATjJSqFC5zOFDwL2WRWHKCYxNlC5ncJ/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_096.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOckGQFE-kUV22Uw4TvJv8XbiDuVbmVZ6mtxGjPY-gvnisNjpYM53zZ_wYq7nTfJ08NNGHwffGEIcIsRVRymin3QF173Z0V4skanfMNrldcknW_ATjJSqFC5zOFDwL2WRWHKCYxNlC5ncJ/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_096.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWIOCgAJ_KLJC3XcUiTTjo2DGi5qw8Oc9nUrhQmDfOPHww0-JK3JJmhhyphenhyphenzzrT_OJSdfQ143ef9oNJ2mcz2YmQ80timhf1g7anfx1uBErWRfX_27254DQjeebMNX8OBlBLymr4f7T4De8b2/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_097.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWIOCgAJ_KLJC3XcUiTTjo2DGi5qw8Oc9nUrhQmDfOPHww0-JK3JJmhhyphenhyphenzzrT_OJSdfQ143ef9oNJ2mcz2YmQ80timhf1g7anfx1uBErWRfX_27254DQjeebMNX8OBlBLymr4f7T4De8b2/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_097.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjH4Ir4_lmiSZYXeVEYVqWb0QpPOPMaG_hfxzfX6nfTYSQBzKvuSnHH4gULaWLEWHJEj9UtnGmbK7eRFIGgE4RDc1JtZ7-mXQyseQLsw-1UWf5JH6JucuHvc1mZZ0CvTQh6nCoymzBYlVU/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_098.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjH4Ir4_lmiSZYXeVEYVqWb0QpPOPMaG_hfxzfX6nfTYSQBzKvuSnHH4gULaWLEWHJEj9UtnGmbK7eRFIGgE4RDc1JtZ7-mXQyseQLsw-1UWf5JH6JucuHvc1mZZ0CvTQh6nCoymzBYlVU/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_098.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHxKk0A4r7gbTfeOTR5AkcAPQO_rYgnqceS33bgRy_zViAsGqMXiPNXiM-LMdtF-S79zr-KwbDF5Vn_er2O1H_jGVQFwncAGsajO5_dfKDcDFG50zN8n4XyPt7hQvY6tlir7DjnhVoiFKk/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_099.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHxKk0A4r7gbTfeOTR5AkcAPQO_rYgnqceS33bgRy_zViAsGqMXiPNXiM-LMdtF-S79zr-KwbDF5Vn_er2O1H_jGVQFwncAGsajO5_dfKDcDFG50zN8n4XyPt7hQvY6tlir7DjnhVoiFKk/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_099.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBT14fwGtg-Zq6KpImNjv9lKwwjiIqI_Qe-XXEad_UplRGJ_iaZG-6vjcFMsuxw-ux3RV05XeZAM1-jwKeWLaMqzO8HdLScZzR_VBAtWJvV9BCsFrrPeYCyhZnJ4qpRXlWHb5kkx_XrSQV/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_100.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBT14fwGtg-Zq6KpImNjv9lKwwjiIqI_Qe-XXEad_UplRGJ_iaZG-6vjcFMsuxw-ux3RV05XeZAM1-jwKeWLaMqzO8HdLScZzR_VBAtWJvV9BCsFrrPeYCyhZnJ4qpRXlWHb5kkx_XrSQV/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_100.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTdTQZc_RI0qyBth8c-pE0TUAKGg5Xo2j4bzwrX-LzwKWEoBw7pOLbylqhRZ36a8HTlxcfSpvV-VFYhZHsRS6pkJGxE9RjQqDt1rbT0xIsmBnviJbiTreIYY-ZTw_bQ4mSQ8VcXmiSzoBT/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_101.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTdTQZc_RI0qyBth8c-pE0TUAKGg5Xo2j4bzwrX-LzwKWEoBw7pOLbylqhRZ36a8HTlxcfSpvV-VFYhZHsRS6pkJGxE9RjQqDt1rbT0xIsmBnviJbiTreIYY-ZTw_bQ4mSQ8VcXmiSzoBT/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_101.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAUUsbcJW86HORnTKdmDqY2DP38xRmWHYvOIJolEJhRbSZD6M1dovWMH7AM5gkLbPWG0Ce0zCK_wd1qb9FGWVgS1VJnsYfsP6H2pd2ONbBcHTdogiWkyx39vwj7N-LtSmB5AJJIxiedaQl/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_102.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAUUsbcJW86HORnTKdmDqY2DP38xRmWHYvOIJolEJhRbSZD6M1dovWMH7AM5gkLbPWG0Ce0zCK_wd1qb9FGWVgS1VJnsYfsP6H2pd2ONbBcHTdogiWkyx39vwj7N-LtSmB5AJJIxiedaQl/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_102.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO5cU0EgAc1_86gdLJ5JGDIx3UIml-xiwtFB6mSorSa3h4_QeEHgKDcSxegQ6Vd9-LqxTI2ymZ2Glpfrw9RsF7m38iW6hfad7kORgmO_P-VvjyFrW4B4fffAfWvEItdqTf9E82hl__Lk5g/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_103.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO5cU0EgAc1_86gdLJ5JGDIx3UIml-xiwtFB6mSorSa3h4_QeEHgKDcSxegQ6Vd9-LqxTI2ymZ2Glpfrw9RsF7m38iW6hfad7kORgmO_P-VvjyFrW4B4fffAfWvEItdqTf9E82hl__Lk5g/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_103.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0pOq7JT6dE0SF0IluDtjkuwQvVXW8OXHsIP1fCbsXC4_om8DL4EI_IuMCr-bzy56tBKHdC6gwy3jbJyMyjpx-qUzwfcJE-Cn7WFml5udDVx6DDvq4t2Y0QPJXwgj3Hr9XQijuhdBqJrb6/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_104.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0pOq7JT6dE0SF0IluDtjkuwQvVXW8OXHsIP1fCbsXC4_om8DL4EI_IuMCr-bzy56tBKHdC6gwy3jbJyMyjpx-qUzwfcJE-Cn7WFml5udDVx6DDvq4t2Y0QPJXwgj3Hr9XQijuhdBqJrb6/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_104.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4e7aZxC_usn6HurTX3P7kFI3vlQF-fRM4lGy_ldzHxjf7D_71GsL8jnL67-1znv1xLNS42n1E8UWlkPSd_MZwL_TdgyWYolYUahrt-uQjno76x-exxboYS7eJpVu_lO6QiH3XuYUqV6z2/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_105.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4e7aZxC_usn6HurTX3P7kFI3vlQF-fRM4lGy_ldzHxjf7D_71GsL8jnL67-1znv1xLNS42n1E8UWlkPSd_MZwL_TdgyWYolYUahrt-uQjno76x-exxboYS7eJpVu_lO6QiH3XuYUqV6z2/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_105.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqDdGhnFCIg8-AyqS5TqTnpBr1JdXtOOWGfHRsk2RSc39CYlwPxAs87aClyauCtG4Wm9H0zykkKyphcRquuFTRDF8uwj6DctbEUhqcJc5jtQxwMEN4JBF65RijcsfsKduZSXyRRfWkf-eE/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_106.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqDdGhnFCIg8-AyqS5TqTnpBr1JdXtOOWGfHRsk2RSc39CYlwPxAs87aClyauCtG4Wm9H0zykkKyphcRquuFTRDF8uwj6DctbEUhqcJc5jtQxwMEN4JBF65RijcsfsKduZSXyRRfWkf-eE/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_106.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLbtO0dTIhyKFi_3aTaISdaH4LoJmoYkFHRdaxGVEIneFJc-C2nuREZn2KvOI2GkQTUEPpQgKmBQRj96qn67rvdRwlM2sUiIKOouAKsu0dmE6f60B_yLJtzk3IwNV3WEnL2EUAiZwWA9s0/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_107.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLbtO0dTIhyKFi_3aTaISdaH4LoJmoYkFHRdaxGVEIneFJc-C2nuREZn2KvOI2GkQTUEPpQgKmBQRj96qn67rvdRwlM2sUiIKOouAKsu0dmE6f60B_yLJtzk3IwNV3WEnL2EUAiZwWA9s0/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_107.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYFW7ZqB_mO6adAPg6OQc_JWZZ5oVFljTBOi1WIwi819YwlcHxehURtKKRvnsaFh2GYkRcqDn2-AryZg0awILIQAOjqNT7exxtnv30jcyOspciUU4SsbyrjwEJ4ra3DLtOQzPPNm95QBTl/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_108.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYFW7ZqB_mO6adAPg6OQc_JWZZ5oVFljTBOi1WIwi819YwlcHxehURtKKRvnsaFh2GYkRcqDn2-AryZg0awILIQAOjqNT7exxtnv30jcyOspciUU4SsbyrjwEJ4ra3DLtOQzPPNm95QBTl/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_108.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijL6wzgyhW6Z0TUsSHWzPgRaDLh-xGcZ749h7DRx2voq9XGxtGBFru5ldsrQsuXQyV03Ak4LR3c1p_8wX8GJysinuthxxBcnCTRLWCPY2Oa3flSW_FVQJ81WaCw2N376973LAhRxkwFoc7/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_109.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijL6wzgyhW6Z0TUsSHWzPgRaDLh-xGcZ749h7DRx2voq9XGxtGBFru5ldsrQsuXQyV03Ak4LR3c1p_8wX8GJysinuthxxBcnCTRLWCPY2Oa3flSW_FVQJ81WaCw2N376973LAhRxkwFoc7/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_109.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnoBamTjHCsPDtcED2jQGWO5y98Nh9NqH8ybmdtKMmFKuiFz1TQ1agjWuMDPWVN_JU631a1SrirqMvI006RwPsDawDONuR3wHxYTC9c9g7Wv-7sOGIE_ABd3JrMQOM0M_C4gfhwL9hNBu_/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_110.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnoBamTjHCsPDtcED2jQGWO5y98Nh9NqH8ybmdtKMmFKuiFz1TQ1agjWuMDPWVN_JU631a1SrirqMvI006RwPsDawDONuR3wHxYTC9c9g7Wv-7sOGIE_ABd3JrMQOM0M_C4gfhwL9hNBu_/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_110.jpg" width="480" /></a></div>
Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-12473402978489852182016-11-25T23:03:00.004+08:002016-11-26T12:51:41.075+08:00【分享】42 Uncovering Gems In An Undervalued Market 3/4<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBNS_S6lkNWX8mcKKIUkA7HzzFaiAOEImIDlMVpGdSJudfKIQDloYEfn4hA7g76UtJpY2XNK-rgDs0F5WUq-TMLpiWA0HcOIe-H5uHHD2jNmK7NcdcLMQXPdtTSrxOypy6ED_5J27PSpK-/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_083.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBNS_S6lkNWX8mcKKIUkA7HzzFaiAOEImIDlMVpGdSJudfKIQDloYEfn4hA7g76UtJpY2XNK-rgDs0F5WUq-TMLpiWA0HcOIe-H5uHHD2jNmK7NcdcLMQXPdtTSrxOypy6ED_5J27PSpK-/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_083.jpg" width="480" /></a></div>
<a name='more'></a><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7zm_6j4lIB_nMOReoOAWjQwtwuNCznFH-zNy91FQtYCN3L-W9Q1fPe7y_y9oPteDGW_wfhmAB4TKZAGZ8GbcfTJ_yUuZs_wriT9mgsnxpVDa1KGyzGlR1_7EWDUhcDZA1PPf9hUEhw1ou/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_084.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7zm_6j4lIB_nMOReoOAWjQwtwuNCznFH-zNy91FQtYCN3L-W9Q1fPe7y_y9oPteDGW_wfhmAB4TKZAGZ8GbcfTJ_yUuZs_wriT9mgsnxpVDa1KGyzGlR1_7EWDUhcDZA1PPf9hUEhw1ou/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_084.jpg" width="480" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg80sS69PjZn_AxqHbet3CivS6Ue4T-bQBTTzP0RGymjMQsEpcn23p7n6LmwPhRbt_nPks0BqH3F27F2EMs2XJHvFsBX4Rohjftg8aEaXt0lKBMuq-pqGakZdSAONG04ZfkjkokW53sg-Et/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_060.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg80sS69PjZn_AxqHbet3CivS6Ue4T-bQBTTzP0RGymjMQsEpcn23p7n6LmwPhRbt_nPks0BqH3F27F2EMs2XJHvFsBX4Rohjftg8aEaXt0lKBMuq-pqGakZdSAONG04ZfkjkokW53sg-Et/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_060.jpg" width="480" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi59yVfPmXL3ZaolafZunypyvJ0EvAK1CqzGkQaeZC0Y3875FTSFg_L5xzND-6mFhwJoLj5QVRgquFDUKCjIClxKbiOseZcgzZSCS_6Y9oqMYToYngSx33bhCf98GVrG-bXDHau3pJFhBLq/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_085.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi59yVfPmXL3ZaolafZunypyvJ0EvAK1CqzGkQaeZC0Y3875FTSFg_L5xzND-6mFhwJoLj5QVRgquFDUKCjIClxKbiOseZcgzZSCS_6Y9oqMYToYngSx33bhCf98GVrG-bXDHau3pJFhBLq/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_085.jpg" width="480" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhy9P64fhJAe0MJBR0hqEMPRCFfOleC-7ekOtd_YLa_DXRJzOz4OVimvVZSUCsHI6I31Zbs19dqCpV6c6kz6kARoQAWZ20caYR0DJa2iqdAdSFr1VQdh2nVxjyIbA-VXhiJWQ8ZH6n2Jz_C/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_086.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhy9P64fhJAe0MJBR0hqEMPRCFfOleC-7ekOtd_YLa_DXRJzOz4OVimvVZSUCsHI6I31Zbs19dqCpV6c6kz6kARoQAWZ20caYR0DJa2iqdAdSFr1VQdh2nVxjyIbA-VXhiJWQ8ZH6n2Jz_C/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_086.jpg" width="480" /></a></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1M83X0QqP7YamasFhDhcAmsu2hM1SRR9D99iUXzCouLKSiQ1ummn3dQZyd2P5vX4bNOlVdTokULmvfX7sEy9uBW4R1J101H6JnOkioigtAH_4PeYwv5utDFXNrHBLFXgjLU1oXmgwyCfO/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_061.jpg" imageanchor="1"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1M83X0QqP7YamasFhDhcAmsu2hM1SRR9D99iUXzCouLKSiQ1ummn3dQZyd2P5vX4bNOlVdTokULmvfX7sEy9uBW4R1J101H6JnOkioigtAH_4PeYwv5utDFXNrHBLFXgjLU1oXmgwyCfO/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_061.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1M83X0QqP7YamasFhDhcAmsu2hM1SRR9D99iUXzCouLKSiQ1ummn3dQZyd2P5vX4bNOlVdTokULmvfX7sEy9uBW4R1J101H6JnOkioigtAH_4PeYwv5utDFXNrHBLFXgjLU1oXmgwyCfO/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_061.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiREguGcaZa3WwueVEroEhe762J-gBUqMfTUAIQLz5KzZHZ4nSMntTZ3tL1OLAn56gkW4Sg2J31VlYGadvfMWm7_JV-lc8u0m-uu5oWUoexXPJ5jNdfjstWNDR6y92-HYfscixEFwPxMAOz/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_062.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiREguGcaZa3WwueVEroEhe762J-gBUqMfTUAIQLz5KzZHZ4nSMntTZ3tL1OLAn56gkW4Sg2J31VlYGadvfMWm7_JV-lc8u0m-uu5oWUoexXPJ5jNdfjstWNDR6y92-HYfscixEFwPxMAOz/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_062.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9eufmIafBpNf-uTTTDzDBs6NAGnVHZ8CF8krU8UEjZW0mPy-7doqOis0n13NAiaYcwwJWi0bKyncSFtNXXM9Fl14-rrDX7Ox8QNHQEpp6Ib1C5Rzm1h9qHNIDn-Z24nHOE0ncaLWtkA-c/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_063.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9eufmIafBpNf-uTTTDzDBs6NAGnVHZ8CF8krU8UEjZW0mPy-7doqOis0n13NAiaYcwwJWi0bKyncSFtNXXM9Fl14-rrDX7Ox8QNHQEpp6Ib1C5Rzm1h9qHNIDn-Z24nHOE0ncaLWtkA-c/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_063.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8ZT8ZBwCaadtHL_Jn_jQzID-RD_dMAoht5tWt_UDbeFHPkcuiATahySynZSKrYSvbrH24ABHK7IQLMS9hpEx-noLiBmZA5srPpyTsiLoj8mdZZ5b1NnQXNaBkBG4FkMaQ72TWdCfoBJ9r/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_064.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8ZT8ZBwCaadtHL_Jn_jQzID-RD_dMAoht5tWt_UDbeFHPkcuiATahySynZSKrYSvbrH24ABHK7IQLMS9hpEx-noLiBmZA5srPpyTsiLoj8mdZZ5b1NnQXNaBkBG4FkMaQ72TWdCfoBJ9r/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_064.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIwGLRI-rIIQkGoyqPsTfilVxrT5P3Jwiib2J85qz-nQmIJCbcM8C6W3sgrkXIP8O7RxGfMssTv2XKYnQ8s-hw3p_I9Cc0WoyfApHLU6vGDn2clCVlLcrwCTjdcg1pfgKnMqiYDH0L3sY4/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_065.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIwGLRI-rIIQkGoyqPsTfilVxrT5P3Jwiib2J85qz-nQmIJCbcM8C6W3sgrkXIP8O7RxGfMssTv2XKYnQ8s-hw3p_I9Cc0WoyfApHLU6vGDn2clCVlLcrwCTjdcg1pfgKnMqiYDH0L3sY4/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_065.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWoXASywRwLFojNidVl89t4O2ZRyi-7knJEjmzwxWiM5lOvqmlQm9JhNdFde6PcsFQYEI2wxJWvb90XxObZUnGOBo4UiyuNuHAbdievoYP7DudWWacBD4lavoEzBdhpuTh5TImNsAk1cAs/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_066.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWoXASywRwLFojNidVl89t4O2ZRyi-7knJEjmzwxWiM5lOvqmlQm9JhNdFde6PcsFQYEI2wxJWvb90XxObZUnGOBo4UiyuNuHAbdievoYP7DudWWacBD4lavoEzBdhpuTh5TImNsAk1cAs/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_066.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqPzobCo37rR5YTp2V27eEMCt768m0wnFmxis9z0kvd35QOt1Od8NzBqdPnoIgWZ-P0m_krI5xBNwyy8OyfYhMKnKvx0RHcariv9_kIDeWDpyv59eL_Ojwf0LevHQfHQO2azRbE2ttFWx0/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_067.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqPzobCo37rR5YTp2V27eEMCt768m0wnFmxis9z0kvd35QOt1Od8NzBqdPnoIgWZ-P0m_krI5xBNwyy8OyfYhMKnKvx0RHcariv9_kIDeWDpyv59eL_Ojwf0LevHQfHQO2azRbE2ttFWx0/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_067.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3v3H1tNTlK0LVnRID1ZTuDkIeInl1-hX-7OAqpFvQ_rzWYlmCpveUtwO_BvT_d_FUV9fhDfJ2EU8JfMuAtCzRwhzJ2A-dwowlSW721d18gj7cO5X1dup1CjX3t7XGl1jm0G5ivmRhn4hG/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_068.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3v3H1tNTlK0LVnRID1ZTuDkIeInl1-hX-7OAqpFvQ_rzWYlmCpveUtwO_BvT_d_FUV9fhDfJ2EU8JfMuAtCzRwhzJ2A-dwowlSW721d18gj7cO5X1dup1CjX3t7XGl1jm0G5ivmRhn4hG/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_068.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0ZuvKwpQJPnisNwhbB3KVajwAjEt6OvGVmYF2t43AaUC90tjpkLDHsLDkJhfOy5ak45d5gMOmeLy7NZmnGaOhBt68pwXZrdG_mXdI9K3ZCaHCcZ96k2oYj8rbR_q1oy89_-Qoowdvthul/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_069.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0ZuvKwpQJPnisNwhbB3KVajwAjEt6OvGVmYF2t43AaUC90tjpkLDHsLDkJhfOy5ak45d5gMOmeLy7NZmnGaOhBt68pwXZrdG_mXdI9K3ZCaHCcZ96k2oYj8rbR_q1oy89_-Qoowdvthul/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_069.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_i3peqdXcTyCMH2Yt-k4_brQ4yY9CQ9MSeRSru-e5a-k-AQxZal9PnAI46L_d8T92EkHQeHgZaSvQr5MoY95XfEjwfXJzy6Bs6eQkGHw4ruKCyqKXuBpAd3lVdAfjqduGmxZC_paADvNk/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_070.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_i3peqdXcTyCMH2Yt-k4_brQ4yY9CQ9MSeRSru-e5a-k-AQxZal9PnAI46L_d8T92EkHQeHgZaSvQr5MoY95XfEjwfXJzy6Bs6eQkGHw4ruKCyqKXuBpAd3lVdAfjqduGmxZC_paADvNk/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_070.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkJzmk3px594M9h8m7QRHmrzGCMc_SSwPYAnFIP9qvqoWdTrlLZ1DN8rtZlZharn3lr_J9f10Gj42oYZGE4zufptY6jki6Y8ovn29ebGFCgaiwSlnljWPCfQjK8Zb3KcDhDO4pe1it3nJw/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_071.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkJzmk3px594M9h8m7QRHmrzGCMc_SSwPYAnFIP9qvqoWdTrlLZ1DN8rtZlZharn3lr_J9f10Gj42oYZGE4zufptY6jki6Y8ovn29ebGFCgaiwSlnljWPCfQjK8Zb3KcDhDO4pe1it3nJw/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_071.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaN7LTXLFiXDMuNDGp3vybCe4dYeD-qdcZxjk3hSq8HUJkQrbyLP_d-itGINkfyAfNNzzXQit3c2NfgF6dUHulPy99VynYfiVbj0jT-JdOBGEYxLGd21nS3qDFgD4UKMAUfgqEoBTfO13m/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_072.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaN7LTXLFiXDMuNDGp3vybCe4dYeD-qdcZxjk3hSq8HUJkQrbyLP_d-itGINkfyAfNNzzXQit3c2NfgF6dUHulPy99VynYfiVbj0jT-JdOBGEYxLGd21nS3qDFgD4UKMAUfgqEoBTfO13m/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_072.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrDof2bIIXf19znQrXP3KnPDlzRpmFP2vj5DNdNpf_JXXqGhSnT2K-miF9WSsO43qUEa9dWFWYSY7cmwK-OQaI8ly2Y_uBfjzHjwK7Hk5qxXxghdiTR08Am_JNvyzCIdtHqnlMlou-YoSL/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_073.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrDof2bIIXf19znQrXP3KnPDlzRpmFP2vj5DNdNpf_JXXqGhSnT2K-miF9WSsO43qUEa9dWFWYSY7cmwK-OQaI8ly2Y_uBfjzHjwK7Hk5qxXxghdiTR08Am_JNvyzCIdtHqnlMlou-YoSL/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_073.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi45y8uDGaZq3LXIKxLDJ6tmrImUBPPX2QZ6PLBWMAiXU7vsrdtkC0aYS-9g5ak6Qg2WS4xBgrWN6E4oZE6jNHJHKX9LJy_66Dx_hTu-J2hbjyaWZSiVuJPrqcWbvY2xAxwBLvSC-wUt1R1/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_074.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi45y8uDGaZq3LXIKxLDJ6tmrImUBPPX2QZ6PLBWMAiXU7vsrdtkC0aYS-9g5ak6Qg2WS4xBgrWN6E4oZE6jNHJHKX9LJy_66Dx_hTu-J2hbjyaWZSiVuJPrqcWbvY2xAxwBLvSC-wUt1R1/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_074.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNBipQAqwTXf1PH_EVJedF8VUOLt9A0Zb_W41HcnmhcB5BXbiuAcJrccJQOyClOIFIGxqc-VyTMCe86P79yJOpY9SXYjBAb2brZR5ClaW3XMCJ_TGNPquUtah9w8SLUrbaZOmrpc7ynYVs/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_075.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNBipQAqwTXf1PH_EVJedF8VUOLt9A0Zb_W41HcnmhcB5BXbiuAcJrccJQOyClOIFIGxqc-VyTMCe86P79yJOpY9SXYjBAb2brZR5ClaW3XMCJ_TGNPquUtah9w8SLUrbaZOmrpc7ynYVs/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_075.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhx-VBZBI59nN8x39IujzelSZj0mhGZu7WJdgk4CmSpJ4bNqDtWp3Pkh3aU3eSHn5aPE_8wesgoFMOSYmpUJTGhyphenhyphenTDpSUppT1giYRRRemQWHE7UztxnSxIlghOAwx0KTj1ag7e3R-F9_HkG/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_076.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhx-VBZBI59nN8x39IujzelSZj0mhGZu7WJdgk4CmSpJ4bNqDtWp3Pkh3aU3eSHn5aPE_8wesgoFMOSYmpUJTGhyphenhyphenTDpSUppT1giYRRRemQWHE7UztxnSxIlghOAwx0KTj1ag7e3R-F9_HkG/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_076.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrkv6MjbL7TbrpZYYg2oHDXDTloozAtlI9Q8nT_GinIHxy_EbjNq1vyy6Ewsvf8NmtaGLqBBneD9FKsjx6KIttatMhTkOd-uQeFk4ODrnX6HMNcSEz3swAUVKClgoKle7qrtT1qzKj2yxX/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_077.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrkv6MjbL7TbrpZYYg2oHDXDTloozAtlI9Q8nT_GinIHxy_EbjNq1vyy6Ewsvf8NmtaGLqBBneD9FKsjx6KIttatMhTkOd-uQeFk4ODrnX6HMNcSEz3swAUVKClgoKle7qrtT1qzKj2yxX/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_077.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCt-MpUa8NQshbte2FHPv3x3j0wcp_BSiJ_hGaUTdEI4sa1_q31Ou5JBJauvCnyminu7YAFH4nIqVDt5RnmdolBxHaWnUPEf-gb95keOFBlq0BRISXMuWnchc97i1MRf7Stidw2enUqFQx/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_078.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCt-MpUa8NQshbte2FHPv3x3j0wcp_BSiJ_hGaUTdEI4sa1_q31Ou5JBJauvCnyminu7YAFH4nIqVDt5RnmdolBxHaWnUPEf-gb95keOFBlq0BRISXMuWnchc97i1MRf7Stidw2enUqFQx/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_078.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMJAmXRoxG3f7Q3FlNgiM9pFidvRq_18jEDhQUa3GxI-i4EH4_GNu-QC2q2Ik89E4TPO3By2kZYQB1xIEzieLkyoaeu9W9fdDIEBcw_owDpCxmVpugnwcN0HBwv4BYO_2EFje1KfsyxEmd/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_079.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMJAmXRoxG3f7Q3FlNgiM9pFidvRq_18jEDhQUa3GxI-i4EH4_GNu-QC2q2Ik89E4TPO3By2kZYQB1xIEzieLkyoaeu9W9fdDIEBcw_owDpCxmVpugnwcN0HBwv4BYO_2EFje1KfsyxEmd/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_079.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyZLRRFJxw2UXH9n39OuZX_g1yvT3UyNB6P2g8HWHzuUwNhZxgFCZaH7mh64Eeogm5T1V4iAzgV2aJ-bptwHuxQA9I3INI7_RUO_5_FyMkPrMFC-H1iHBLZBQ6NmwtM9umgu2MobtsBBu0/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_080.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyZLRRFJxw2UXH9n39OuZX_g1yvT3UyNB6P2g8HWHzuUwNhZxgFCZaH7mh64Eeogm5T1V4iAzgV2aJ-bptwHuxQA9I3INI7_RUO_5_FyMkPrMFC-H1iHBLZBQ6NmwtM9umgu2MobtsBBu0/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_080.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVzhlwBbu0xzHoXr5sI8UEgFx5FSnGJZsJYEP7X0FNuzk8xzIMSNscIbR-VYRKvTQNgQHq7WXRVM9J1cWD1_1-nPPUwKLAkTSiqB9jczHkO8n9vlhYryuuDEfpfTvMM4I_gXOTgkAkXb8Y/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_081.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVzhlwBbu0xzHoXr5sI8UEgFx5FSnGJZsJYEP7X0FNuzk8xzIMSNscIbR-VYRKvTQNgQHq7WXRVM9J1cWD1_1-nPPUwKLAkTSiqB9jczHkO8n9vlhYryuuDEfpfTvMM4I_gXOTgkAkXb8Y/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_081.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaj471dXednOwuSadyeCDGAsvBXvtvFF9bYjnncFbld68rgL4PW5WjR7Q2P-soCkvWJa0GdX-MBZls38REdijMrY51nOK3JLNDRDhX5ia500MhBLycqcxSWYHhu2cDRvMhm7qojP1bNqpp/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_082.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaj471dXednOwuSadyeCDGAsvBXvtvFF9bYjnncFbld68rgL4PW5WjR7Q2P-soCkvWJa0GdX-MBZls38REdijMrY51nOK3JLNDRDhX5ia500MhBLycqcxSWYHhu2cDRvMhm7qojP1bNqpp/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_082.jpg" width="480" /></a></div>
Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-71265851958709620812016-11-25T22:55:00.000+08:002016-11-26T12:51:48.188+08:00【分享】42 Uncovering Gems In An Undervalued Market 2/4<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgT6XcElUwF9Pvejns_j9x_Amxp3sROTNJ7Y3shv4AWUn45svFXor0a1w_Kj738fxqcpysVAJArPsf3KqP7YeNp46iflEU-ynFMTBwdsinkp27rskbzfv6ZUIN_o2Q_upI_nbPyQc-8RzZh/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgT6XcElUwF9Pvejns_j9x_Amxp3sROTNJ7Y3shv4AWUn45svFXor0a1w_Kj738fxqcpysVAJArPsf3KqP7YeNp46iflEU-ynFMTBwdsinkp27rskbzfv6ZUIN_o2Q_upI_nbPyQc-8RzZh/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_023.jpg" width="480" /></a></div>
<a name='more'></a><br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7J7QGwPqtmH3oSCJP6Sse8hCmIisBq748bFZaMzPf7yCzUOohnrUnL0nuMISOpWn1W77jtPwGQrhyphenhyphenaNXRmNWGPxTOeaXrMssLNennsIkQ5_1p65SuIg3CAOrLgmH67GFfqpHdMlJ_Z-tk/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_024.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7J7QGwPqtmH3oSCJP6Sse8hCmIisBq748bFZaMzPf7yCzUOohnrUnL0nuMISOpWn1W77jtPwGQrhyphenhyphenaNXRmNWGPxTOeaXrMssLNennsIkQ5_1p65SuIg3CAOrLgmH67GFfqpHdMlJ_Z-tk/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_024.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpn6w5WX4mXfq71GhHk9IlhmCG8n_KG9q3A7gg6DAQm6pPJFEbIVgcPHyuh0yfK_EwxjaDAXBucqgXmftv9Njv2W1bvkMHifnegSpvNQmOxssGF8uNzK0U7kBYf8ELzWjLovRh9H4XmFwY/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_025.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpn6w5WX4mXfq71GhHk9IlhmCG8n_KG9q3A7gg6DAQm6pPJFEbIVgcPHyuh0yfK_EwxjaDAXBucqgXmftv9Njv2W1bvkMHifnegSpvNQmOxssGF8uNzK0U7kBYf8ELzWjLovRh9H4XmFwY/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_025.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyyIhqeyKY-p1MCbTyLuy6mLp7xpqO8TVC4ML14RFv2fXFzGLjTS-_roGzF1V2D-d4utKya8gFcXF1hQaF0hkEEN07J7EODm2RKWWG5Q4rLMR-uQVDXXwFmuufFsrQga1e78met5kedCPJ/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_026.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyyIhqeyKY-p1MCbTyLuy6mLp7xpqO8TVC4ML14RFv2fXFzGLjTS-_roGzF1V2D-d4utKya8gFcXF1hQaF0hkEEN07J7EODm2RKWWG5Q4rLMR-uQVDXXwFmuufFsrQga1e78met5kedCPJ/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_026.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU9r8xrscEa_1W4jPeZE8qJfJxRGGy1h65a9fBEwywOn-JWUPi1wDDToxYNhNdPLvz6c5KhZduIp4zC7kVJ_4gfNakCOVcVqUx8ZPF0Ila8Nmeeu6n5ZAO_yblswSx259YLCazgTozhecJ/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_027.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU9r8xrscEa_1W4jPeZE8qJfJxRGGy1h65a9fBEwywOn-JWUPi1wDDToxYNhNdPLvz6c5KhZduIp4zC7kVJ_4gfNakCOVcVqUx8ZPF0Ila8Nmeeu6n5ZAO_yblswSx259YLCazgTozhecJ/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_027.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-6vxl-Gqgfp-FYwGo5xr4ZHfpfTopItLp9pXxGW-8Pkuda8kgjsD7CuT4wmunYFsBujEvRx_Kr2fKA_t_xlwFU-b26wU0lqt2uET-scDf_KiUHQYaWSAkxxUO9CNfzqVTSx6t06z72muu/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_028.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-6vxl-Gqgfp-FYwGo5xr4ZHfpfTopItLp9pXxGW-8Pkuda8kgjsD7CuT4wmunYFsBujEvRx_Kr2fKA_t_xlwFU-b26wU0lqt2uET-scDf_KiUHQYaWSAkxxUO9CNfzqVTSx6t06z72muu/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_028.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj934ZjiAQv8ei9XeiUEx2npU_A6XcsOykfiCCgjrvExG0DQ06XbKZwakhEn-k3uehmXaFXwHWTsaHj_IPmpFLtRY4ogm3VRMeG0ml2xB2zLfkfrEoD3-nFX43u6CCebJMg3fH4D77ObuoE/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_029.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj934ZjiAQv8ei9XeiUEx2npU_A6XcsOykfiCCgjrvExG0DQ06XbKZwakhEn-k3uehmXaFXwHWTsaHj_IPmpFLtRY4ogm3VRMeG0ml2xB2zLfkfrEoD3-nFX43u6CCebJMg3fH4D77ObuoE/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_029.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9r-M8ysVC0oDRSXyoQgIKWVQI6yGghzqz3ja149jDN8QO5VxcN19tvNa8ZxoSV5vf7d-ULbwIdznZ1JVvEyJhj5P9Gn5ZJdVVhJ2vRpOCYwk22mb2blFZ7dI4zNIeuC0Y11k5Ycdlv8zF/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_030.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9r-M8ysVC0oDRSXyoQgIKWVQI6yGghzqz3ja149jDN8QO5VxcN19tvNa8ZxoSV5vf7d-ULbwIdznZ1JVvEyJhj5P9Gn5ZJdVVhJ2vRpOCYwk22mb2blFZ7dI4zNIeuC0Y11k5Ycdlv8zF/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_030.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1MNFxc_qVYhuVL30RVfkZrH7qbKRmiejKODDC-LulDultIoFfFQIy85NtugWxlMr2qXPsFI7SuhPX5vla231Xl0FzVM-hGh0ayrH5T7cpUgdLUa1qixcXRgKPs32bHktk37niuxC9ESPL/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_031.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1MNFxc_qVYhuVL30RVfkZrH7qbKRmiejKODDC-LulDultIoFfFQIy85NtugWxlMr2qXPsFI7SuhPX5vla231Xl0FzVM-hGh0ayrH5T7cpUgdLUa1qixcXRgKPs32bHktk37niuxC9ESPL/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_031.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilHdRMYoQiJ0qUb1Pcfvhyphenhyphen1BtcPBqkfRc_Pa4GnUHc_i19l0phTGDxa-o-VcqBeNnNIfzXr6IXI4DsMnSbx6ID99FqWj9ILY-Q3akRQ1XvxFyS-BwmgHibFuYkf7whyQ9rfm-05K3RcUy1/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_032.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilHdRMYoQiJ0qUb1Pcfvhyphenhyphen1BtcPBqkfRc_Pa4GnUHc_i19l0phTGDxa-o-VcqBeNnNIfzXr6IXI4DsMnSbx6ID99FqWj9ILY-Q3akRQ1XvxFyS-BwmgHibFuYkf7whyQ9rfm-05K3RcUy1/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_032.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjM3TkWRKR1BgIzzyqzTkOskvajeo1_jMhz6ISMhkiFTmwl5tmjakGI-Pj2_tgW3cS5lU0vf6B1bfxByURvJFiKvDqvyyP-gcZCmXzPjX1cjt78E84lYRVAPV7GL456w_pOseVoaSJszXKs/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_033.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjM3TkWRKR1BgIzzyqzTkOskvajeo1_jMhz6ISMhkiFTmwl5tmjakGI-Pj2_tgW3cS5lU0vf6B1bfxByURvJFiKvDqvyyP-gcZCmXzPjX1cjt78E84lYRVAPV7GL456w_pOseVoaSJszXKs/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_033.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiJ1ii_crycUZMqhoOmv27diEEgGGt5064GmCn_c_fQZl_OGTVNy2f06TXciMwUcH85p7dgUsUSC5ZylHVwn7IyuO3XveYv14rtOj2l40maRX8sn6rYgIxoo7I4lPc9nHIHJ1jPuIz21x4/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_034.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiJ1ii_crycUZMqhoOmv27diEEgGGt5064GmCn_c_fQZl_OGTVNy2f06TXciMwUcH85p7dgUsUSC5ZylHVwn7IyuO3XveYv14rtOj2l40maRX8sn6rYgIxoo7I4lPc9nHIHJ1jPuIz21x4/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_034.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgE-93iVnLr3To20MQgA4YU6_kjjCd98qtYmRMeBwbpDWYZIYgb_sQt9G7HEcTPDMDtjkCCXiLwUhYEzdXNBcczEXdo7b8v6VSEVB8GiAuS1wnLpv55xXUPLPS8S85OLWSFsNcKLZcfbpBP/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_035.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgE-93iVnLr3To20MQgA4YU6_kjjCd98qtYmRMeBwbpDWYZIYgb_sQt9G7HEcTPDMDtjkCCXiLwUhYEzdXNBcczEXdo7b8v6VSEVB8GiAuS1wnLpv55xXUPLPS8S85OLWSFsNcKLZcfbpBP/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_035.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtRYEJWpA-b-korOoatbR9t7HJWtn7ANOF6Ye_B-FIKSRot0TjX-I_bHWpwcUpz6CMsoPnHoQO00xipQDgk3ch5T6auMOsDwzMC5k-1FWGH1z3RRnwGjB8yBHku6qhAegj5-ADTAEo8GOw/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_036.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtRYEJWpA-b-korOoatbR9t7HJWtn7ANOF6Ye_B-FIKSRot0TjX-I_bHWpwcUpz6CMsoPnHoQO00xipQDgk3ch5T6auMOsDwzMC5k-1FWGH1z3RRnwGjB8yBHku6qhAegj5-ADTAEo8GOw/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_036.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7ruVACqZJODnk2_UzTUXX7lT8tVosgoi8Di9gihr0df2CFDNJcxjcpGIPFdORhwhOzaneQm7ckfyoGDcUIYDBo8lx19WCExzOOXNMeoa6uFDdMjSmAJt_Zcea0VnvHqPCSAc5bPlT7jBq/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_037.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7ruVACqZJODnk2_UzTUXX7lT8tVosgoi8Di9gihr0df2CFDNJcxjcpGIPFdORhwhOzaneQm7ckfyoGDcUIYDBo8lx19WCExzOOXNMeoa6uFDdMjSmAJt_Zcea0VnvHqPCSAc5bPlT7jBq/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_037.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0ioRfgQdXnn0mVjPaaYiZCM1ZDeMafp5GJCkytgwtZNLBEp_tgtSsU8lrsKqKyQzApL4SwHujm_OMhzMbVdY0NHjYNEhx4knVma8ggJNpiANkYVVXswAS1_HLuJ4IaRVIlRiWP9uevqiA/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_038.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0ioRfgQdXnn0mVjPaaYiZCM1ZDeMafp5GJCkytgwtZNLBEp_tgtSsU8lrsKqKyQzApL4SwHujm_OMhzMbVdY0NHjYNEhx4knVma8ggJNpiANkYVVXswAS1_HLuJ4IaRVIlRiWP9uevqiA/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_038.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsWI-fiZzSamY6RgLoJePwRdzJrh4bwRUTnGtfvk6s_bwcseVFX59-7r2WPRFAzMyxtUv1mjoUQJ8ZBJGkJiy1ZbNJ7XTmeu30nC3vuY0Kpcu7Lzqb-9WrVl_ZyFYHGzhmWfO7_4wi_DKp/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_039.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsWI-fiZzSamY6RgLoJePwRdzJrh4bwRUTnGtfvk6s_bwcseVFX59-7r2WPRFAzMyxtUv1mjoUQJ8ZBJGkJiy1ZbNJ7XTmeu30nC3vuY0Kpcu7Lzqb-9WrVl_ZyFYHGzhmWfO7_4wi_DKp/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_039.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYl7ZJemH0R4muA00R9aSPzwAW7-d3v4ri7Rhr01cv13H0HZ6kWrT1uTpDTly_uDia5nYIsg1FBsbuvxiBC2ivVKkjHjkZBaiiGwUCRusj-TNv71Nw_KVul6iGemPz4KhAT99YDWVcolnV/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_040.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYl7ZJemH0R4muA00R9aSPzwAW7-d3v4ri7Rhr01cv13H0HZ6kWrT1uTpDTly_uDia5nYIsg1FBsbuvxiBC2ivVKkjHjkZBaiiGwUCRusj-TNv71Nw_KVul6iGemPz4KhAT99YDWVcolnV/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_040.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMG2S9FA7HcLKCnwQs2pskQnfv6TVlss3B_MU37tBDtxn0d81GO6Zr5RgY4u_7a6f4MBKwmkAZGzRyCzubQ7KpYem4l1aXEKsfQJ0LOK6TLSAFsDX9ohsPucGHvo_0P5e1SatQlbFOirW8/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_041.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMG2S9FA7HcLKCnwQs2pskQnfv6TVlss3B_MU37tBDtxn0d81GO6Zr5RgY4u_7a6f4MBKwmkAZGzRyCzubQ7KpYem4l1aXEKsfQJ0LOK6TLSAFsDX9ohsPucGHvo_0P5e1SatQlbFOirW8/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_041.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhstmnj10GpdI9Y4ybB_TstcZrVVwIbLigVgRTAY6ZpXHLvljnpPKBLR-MoX_vJ1rbid62JA4HnaZ-mBGczAhmbyS2MjdyrNvhyphenhyphenCisQYCVxSwhl3mVxJ4R8irnfoBYuYOgCGxwUgjpdjMG3/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_042.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhstmnj10GpdI9Y4ybB_TstcZrVVwIbLigVgRTAY6ZpXHLvljnpPKBLR-MoX_vJ1rbid62JA4HnaZ-mBGczAhmbyS2MjdyrNvhyphenhyphenCisQYCVxSwhl3mVxJ4R8irnfoBYuYOgCGxwUgjpdjMG3/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_042.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPqu96rTxHRYU4-tV6bZPNsZepw4vpT6HgU-NcoZ2KfWJ12a0X7Lbc95FKn5p9loGe01qYRJjBKMDzW3C4FkHlrQUQUId3KtJsLslqR4VyqVgG1QsFEtV1MTqsdxwvth8OHmkUDEIF1Ty8/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_043.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPqu96rTxHRYU4-tV6bZPNsZepw4vpT6HgU-NcoZ2KfWJ12a0X7Lbc95FKn5p9loGe01qYRJjBKMDzW3C4FkHlrQUQUId3KtJsLslqR4VyqVgG1QsFEtV1MTqsdxwvth8OHmkUDEIF1Ty8/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_043.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKbKuwACC0aiSHlAf0exNhZbhyphenhyphen0pztG8UdMnkguuLQdxk1KbkMqCjny3-6PDXNVX3Nijw3adoeL9oQbF9qiOhyphenhyphenduIu-NT1eHFsTF-RNl71XveGVV16k13w62sNQ-UVNMdU8PpbXGmqmLdV/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_044.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKbKuwACC0aiSHlAf0exNhZbhyphenhyphen0pztG8UdMnkguuLQdxk1KbkMqCjny3-6PDXNVX3Nijw3adoeL9oQbF9qiOhyphenhyphenduIu-NT1eHFsTF-RNl71XveGVV16k13w62sNQ-UVNMdU8PpbXGmqmLdV/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_044.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcl6gJ4udpgCHy-aX5Tn27cUKcMPYxdbWO5Kxrg3FamCOz2dAbNVnM3TiwdcR-LInYwk3KYo7pGg-3GNC79mbbQg8-kNrwtL6yxgTyntqnMWDn1Bb6mJuK6OOUxWdRBJTALqjI22YC5apK/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_045.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcl6gJ4udpgCHy-aX5Tn27cUKcMPYxdbWO5Kxrg3FamCOz2dAbNVnM3TiwdcR-LInYwk3KYo7pGg-3GNC79mbbQg8-kNrwtL6yxgTyntqnMWDn1Bb6mJuK6OOUxWdRBJTALqjI22YC5apK/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_045.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjf2e9UMl_XU3B7vgFRjUgeIiYyWBR6rVQFv8BHeWxfdUmxxO_z2lMM2sL4R7sEbvhej-1UcPi9qmiGR8xzi4nJQReipDwai7Yo2UWvaLMBU4GlLulKO2O8p73l2ifX8Gxh6OsCFCJd0Ija/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_046.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjf2e9UMl_XU3B7vgFRjUgeIiYyWBR6rVQFv8BHeWxfdUmxxO_z2lMM2sL4R7sEbvhej-1UcPi9qmiGR8xzi4nJQReipDwai7Yo2UWvaLMBU4GlLulKO2O8p73l2ifX8Gxh6OsCFCJd0Ija/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_046.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLttPbFJ-vCTfH_-2-ULRAsN47X90dJLNGuGLYbhW8lIfCAXZjxGqt0G7phZVka8KU5-27GRH-vcCPJARNWwYvJjbA-zyjK4KfqMVDYD81EBuEDHxW2kQ95G1tMGV-hBcaS6EuJGdOtju7/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_047.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLttPbFJ-vCTfH_-2-ULRAsN47X90dJLNGuGLYbhW8lIfCAXZjxGqt0G7phZVka8KU5-27GRH-vcCPJARNWwYvJjbA-zyjK4KfqMVDYD81EBuEDHxW2kQ95G1tMGV-hBcaS6EuJGdOtju7/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_047.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFU1FaQsTSzefJu1ARhpbxgODSd1FQS22v8fm4lchuKqxSylz5sqS8Lo9fFzfRT4IWmEXX6rHpeu2MDaD7QkzzzTH0NGQ2JYbIUodUqa4QhrcDkWXUF1diZRPb_N8qoCRjBLhyjj7gkvPY/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_048.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFU1FaQsTSzefJu1ARhpbxgODSd1FQS22v8fm4lchuKqxSylz5sqS8Lo9fFzfRT4IWmEXX6rHpeu2MDaD7QkzzzTH0NGQ2JYbIUodUqa4QhrcDkWXUF1diZRPb_N8qoCRjBLhyjj7gkvPY/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_048.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDOSrVk4V9DkT16HCvKJed0685tTvWch_nm2lL-5zbrOtqc5u4nBeiacUMZPlj211rmtcUCHtgTwVeK1H4ySHDz3CxIzLbaVgYKfwXWYBdLxgTBBHYe6oA9WOVLeBiTEImvvgtL7O-BI9a/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_049.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDOSrVk4V9DkT16HCvKJed0685tTvWch_nm2lL-5zbrOtqc5u4nBeiacUMZPlj211rmtcUCHtgTwVeK1H4ySHDz3CxIzLbaVgYKfwXWYBdLxgTBBHYe6oA9WOVLeBiTEImvvgtL7O-BI9a/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_049.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsutbUDSfjB3X4bWvBQ7bsKxbhQBt1s2HguoSGhHHnUk3Z-2W8CuTaQnZwELldesgfzmu0Tpg0FHRW0xv9Q9BWi8uYeBVQxlh8bqH_YhQlKs4qXfCKLms9Tsr79bUFh4PLfEOg41FbexZO/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_050.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsutbUDSfjB3X4bWvBQ7bsKxbhQBt1s2HguoSGhHHnUk3Z-2W8CuTaQnZwELldesgfzmu0Tpg0FHRW0xv9Q9BWi8uYeBVQxlh8bqH_YhQlKs4qXfCKLms9Tsr79bUFh4PLfEOg41FbexZO/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_050.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX1Yfq3JpyZB713kMSKe_vwdQu6jgqwCgfiJ61ePSwFXkjvNCRAu8jesUQtCdaVqzAvmzUSKbmO8Hx_9zmSqLBgG5Kvp1v2iu_v9ki7AOWUqOL71BE_eJa6ex6XmR2ohJUPgZtuaO5rAqU/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_051.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX1Yfq3JpyZB713kMSKe_vwdQu6jgqwCgfiJ61ePSwFXkjvNCRAu8jesUQtCdaVqzAvmzUSKbmO8Hx_9zmSqLBgG5Kvp1v2iu_v9ki7AOWUqOL71BE_eJa6ex6XmR2ohJUPgZtuaO5rAqU/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_051.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisT8AuQx-mLb6Y-msEr3z2pif143sT5An_G4I_yGP8sk5FtNyFPkUrQIj9mo9oDp2bHKwjWsrCaXEIdxDX3fHBqnvlNblaEBqLA3vMjASp1_13g3hKd90_KVY2QTOdR83oOE1S7UYtteFl/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_052.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisT8AuQx-mLb6Y-msEr3z2pif143sT5An_G4I_yGP8sk5FtNyFPkUrQIj9mo9oDp2bHKwjWsrCaXEIdxDX3fHBqnvlNblaEBqLA3vMjASp1_13g3hKd90_KVY2QTOdR83oOE1S7UYtteFl/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_052.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSXpJXXHdXKuOg2BnLFNOOrnF38Txw_XfcrA7t4c2pz42iCtwZEK1jlkMBM0eB_14h5JtEkJO85mtufL8xfrwqx3GBQMLY1IvPxYsNY0DIs29uWP9qhi5DBbGBdtfQCTPmF5wm3Nnmpfqz/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_053.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSXpJXXHdXKuOg2BnLFNOOrnF38Txw_XfcrA7t4c2pz42iCtwZEK1jlkMBM0eB_14h5JtEkJO85mtufL8xfrwqx3GBQMLY1IvPxYsNY0DIs29uWP9qhi5DBbGBdtfQCTPmF5wm3Nnmpfqz/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_053.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8GLUg5V8hNu4KDCL4Y1ocFvomaUOu4EK9rLpTo7mgfQimJG5ZhyphenhyphenGzWCt_AOGRmnpnm2LAFSoutaYXbnhWmTg_-EINuiQJSLx33ztVLYfUkqHkmRrx6t4rwxf1YyxpA_WVmKybf845qC2Y/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_054.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8GLUg5V8hNu4KDCL4Y1ocFvomaUOu4EK9rLpTo7mgfQimJG5ZhyphenhyphenGzWCt_AOGRmnpnm2LAFSoutaYXbnhWmTg_-EINuiQJSLx33ztVLYfUkqHkmRrx6t4rwxf1YyxpA_WVmKybf845qC2Y/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_054.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgviB9zH_QhhS3DHvPirZAwOvu_3R2ptzsyVq-PaeDyZNmVSGFHJL6faMzpfdsHx-Wc1m5vEASX85BwCT1P-PoXHTVTijPAguxYCOzrSa2Mc5LqfUIedn9XgRh_zH-yH9Xhz72XllSr2ukL/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_055.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgviB9zH_QhhS3DHvPirZAwOvu_3R2ptzsyVq-PaeDyZNmVSGFHJL6faMzpfdsHx-Wc1m5vEASX85BwCT1P-PoXHTVTijPAguxYCOzrSa2Mc5LqfUIedn9XgRh_zH-yH9Xhz72XllSr2ukL/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_055.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSJTN747Iwtg5L7yzoikFsytIYP8m3EVWzSESclvbHVfSS_7Y0Chrhcmusm369IvnFAvEWN9lXsUbXVZ_W75vrCJzqqDGd4LV5tGrCFh9P1uwxlaXErWrtchG3jc02KOE1FDNVPT9ZCy1P/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_056.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSJTN747Iwtg5L7yzoikFsytIYP8m3EVWzSESclvbHVfSS_7Y0Chrhcmusm369IvnFAvEWN9lXsUbXVZ_W75vrCJzqqDGd4LV5tGrCFh9P1uwxlaXErWrtchG3jc02KOE1FDNVPT9ZCy1P/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_056.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi57zo58E3Z7qZNARotevvFiHSOCoYf-qlMOCJGVBLxaTXX9uEDccMOq2X5YZsmf562J7L_eR60Boyg6-OET440eShq38X_mXohtU16LqUH9xoYgxMo0B1n9_qgdJMVwz-25KMxqmCCcm-M/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_057.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi57zo58E3Z7qZNARotevvFiHSOCoYf-qlMOCJGVBLxaTXX9uEDccMOq2X5YZsmf562J7L_eR60Boyg6-OET440eShq38X_mXohtU16LqUH9xoYgxMo0B1n9_qgdJMVwz-25KMxqmCCcm-M/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_057.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEib-yyyO7wGZ6Dp0llEzfnsA7hPcTmbc-Y4f9FW_wXT_c27ATNhjBgVLETmtsIbBv65Ae73JHuessUeyjj-X88MvDs2vtEWVEywjmQ6GvtuY5vDJ83XdMTI3vg14J_u6XZd0X_YAkqvmZLc/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_058.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEib-yyyO7wGZ6Dp0llEzfnsA7hPcTmbc-Y4f9FW_wXT_c27ATNhjBgVLETmtsIbBv65Ae73JHuessUeyjj-X88MvDs2vtEWVEywjmQ6GvtuY5vDJ83XdMTI3vg14J_u6XZd0X_YAkqvmZLc/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_058.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsE7l-T8BUIYChZakqaAmziUVjTaeWttiHLou5VJPHwXImI8fjf5b3OvohuQu5aK2UvWMVczauFfrduCRa01inkA9kUmyLMxOVF5qF_uh5DKhiCgcX8xIx_H_zWqANM8nBm92kfVtAOgXy/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_059.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsE7l-T8BUIYChZakqaAmziUVjTaeWttiHLou5VJPHwXImI8fjf5b3OvohuQu5aK2UvWMVczauFfrduCRa01inkA9kUmyLMxOVF5qF_uh5DKhiCgcX8xIx_H_zWqANM8nBm92kfVtAOgXy/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_059.jpg" width="480" /></a></div>
Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-4689231133148799692016-11-25T22:41:00.001+08:002016-11-26T12:51:55.803+08:00【分享】42 Uncovering Gems In An Undervalued Market 1/4<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZIkWTCCRxNMqwo3vkl_5IswnY-bdcbIhMwl6I3yY2eQxfbS7uvFR0a88RS5ZQxgcz-n-9RYt3iqm_it7crZKWR0inibRPkHPjX5_e4c57jcrEhfVdig0zlBSD8BeiOVXHj7hGKlNzyAg4/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_001.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZIkWTCCRxNMqwo3vkl_5IswnY-bdcbIhMwl6I3yY2eQxfbS7uvFR0a88RS5ZQxgcz-n-9RYt3iqm_it7crZKWR0inibRPkHPjX5_e4c57jcrEhfVdig0zlBSD8BeiOVXHj7hGKlNzyAg4/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_001.jpg" width="480" /></a></div>
<a name='more'></a><br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOdnwUzjdkDUCgFThofD7JK_pROksR1fFbZmYzqO5La4T1IELh0AkunaKsef2FWZ54npdt72k8Pwsr6GTf6Pc8-YeicX5eMsfShF1V-rKpmYb6fS1ypdIrsZjZPLFHAzenchzFgcOIdgoP/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_002.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOdnwUzjdkDUCgFThofD7JK_pROksR1fFbZmYzqO5La4T1IELh0AkunaKsef2FWZ54npdt72k8Pwsr6GTf6Pc8-YeicX5eMsfShF1V-rKpmYb6fS1ypdIrsZjZPLFHAzenchzFgcOIdgoP/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_002.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI_o4_lPn_xBnW1vyIm8WdxnUEj_RfN1mDetr-fhaWmqbKpNLOrgIMmalt7Qw-cdFqdX0Kjl3VjqS0GgKqs_GAXu_5Gv_vqK3WWOryvrsc-oWg-xBfGsWICvp8Ekb1HKpcvlES4q7WR6f7/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_003.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI_o4_lPn_xBnW1vyIm8WdxnUEj_RfN1mDetr-fhaWmqbKpNLOrgIMmalt7Qw-cdFqdX0Kjl3VjqS0GgKqs_GAXu_5Gv_vqK3WWOryvrsc-oWg-xBfGsWICvp8Ekb1HKpcvlES4q7WR6f7/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_003.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipMNxiF_zT8kJ3dEFcRD4P8HZ-V6yDVPJJqL12ROEWeSMH39_enM29fE2Nmn4Lbw0d02upVUa0A8IXbhQNA1zcrdHYNmu8B36SE2vPktU9AVps4PXad8UyUkq4BRviTs4-GFbFAfqW3QNB/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_004.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipMNxiF_zT8kJ3dEFcRD4P8HZ-V6yDVPJJqL12ROEWeSMH39_enM29fE2Nmn4Lbw0d02upVUa0A8IXbhQNA1zcrdHYNmu8B36SE2vPktU9AVps4PXad8UyUkq4BRviTs4-GFbFAfqW3QNB/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_004.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQrBbXeftCriafUyDBUqdn6ZttA5dSfPsa-qJoWbOjJpzc1PuW8h2Lb5E9vE2dkbLsDHsovCsdcK9rRZd-5tUs4WbqTwjNcpomCD3waxv2YKe9GuM8epDnQcLPjJUEH3F5Ek38iWb_7WpP/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_005.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQrBbXeftCriafUyDBUqdn6ZttA5dSfPsa-qJoWbOjJpzc1PuW8h2Lb5E9vE2dkbLsDHsovCsdcK9rRZd-5tUs4WbqTwjNcpomCD3waxv2YKe9GuM8epDnQcLPjJUEH3F5Ek38iWb_7WpP/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_005.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPZoRpCbyD3dEcYvhIqra-Ju4qHJytQ9SQxv4N79nW3V9MCTRTi4bv_5_rK3aRhlDfXPohe3yrdKL_nPYebFqbOzocv84pPIdXjnPc823bcUqpdeDew4cgeJENRMhlDiIrznyyhE0yrnn9/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_006.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPZoRpCbyD3dEcYvhIqra-Ju4qHJytQ9SQxv4N79nW3V9MCTRTi4bv_5_rK3aRhlDfXPohe3yrdKL_nPYebFqbOzocv84pPIdXjnPc823bcUqpdeDew4cgeJENRMhlDiIrznyyhE0yrnn9/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_006.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNGYsBXmnf9Co8a1_f1Ag48WQTj8p3KK8YTICG7VqU_7s0-nAl5h4e2WHHEeFre45HPxl4RvuwHRuiCVjd9iM_lXUygPcaLs6COA00BnG5KIYjWlYO_BjTtom7l8CMoc2ZgM7tumH-E14K/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_007.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNGYsBXmnf9Co8a1_f1Ag48WQTj8p3KK8YTICG7VqU_7s0-nAl5h4e2WHHEeFre45HPxl4RvuwHRuiCVjd9iM_lXUygPcaLs6COA00BnG5KIYjWlYO_BjTtom7l8CMoc2ZgM7tumH-E14K/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_007.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc3So5aHFAWie5Tmb9EaXT2kjo7jfn3DM_40ItKlknt5tDpx-QQYnYjxCKlGiaL7UxE8LI3uUqlFfetN6N2IVnvWG6QQrevwrRnoDe8QReteZh2PAoopzBZYEULp6VSNPt5r3cUhZFJlBa/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_008.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc3So5aHFAWie5Tmb9EaXT2kjo7jfn3DM_40ItKlknt5tDpx-QQYnYjxCKlGiaL7UxE8LI3uUqlFfetN6N2IVnvWG6QQrevwrRnoDe8QReteZh2PAoopzBZYEULp6VSNPt5r3cUhZFJlBa/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_008.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiSu_dmr_5xO9u0Rbo_3Ripc0_jZYB15joq7AxTJTnjfVApEQUQ-cneMKXtpzW5o2hBTEPiwGC8jfCh6U8Cq1HnnEmozZbHU-bcPSVhpI3WECrE_kEHEsysPOh1UHPzPFxHrpplEbYeOuA/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_009.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiSu_dmr_5xO9u0Rbo_3Ripc0_jZYB15joq7AxTJTnjfVApEQUQ-cneMKXtpzW5o2hBTEPiwGC8jfCh6U8Cq1HnnEmozZbHU-bcPSVhpI3WECrE_kEHEsysPOh1UHPzPFxHrpplEbYeOuA/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_009.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhADFD8dM6jA18Guc46RIF-YoGNlYI2KklGqfAMJIOkXkLuF6ZUvD81Pvh0z5LE5SrTMxyPIOuoHHBWDKjcRMSKXHc3itvLWpStOkfrzTA79q1zFTj9f3WexCUgC02R8k3jrh2YFMSrxk1T/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_010.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhADFD8dM6jA18Guc46RIF-YoGNlYI2KklGqfAMJIOkXkLuF6ZUvD81Pvh0z5LE5SrTMxyPIOuoHHBWDKjcRMSKXHc3itvLWpStOkfrzTA79q1zFTj9f3WexCUgC02R8k3jrh2YFMSrxk1T/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_010.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbnH5lDMBPkwEENSaUybGoovJ8mbdCozCvL7RPvoMbliXEJpA6HkV7KcKizazL4HZlkoA3Z_dwfbShalek41DC37zYYGu2bTQp69Qnz8FCWCaG6R_h71pTxcVUB6rYlmKN8kim7VYLkRZS/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_011.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbnH5lDMBPkwEENSaUybGoovJ8mbdCozCvL7RPvoMbliXEJpA6HkV7KcKizazL4HZlkoA3Z_dwfbShalek41DC37zYYGu2bTQp69Qnz8FCWCaG6R_h71pTxcVUB6rYlmKN8kim7VYLkRZS/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_011.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX-mm8govHfRo_Ive-0YM2cg86N8mDt8kMWv42ZImdGl1klUP0YGYdK4lcOjPCErMaqmc9-9GFJzpj8iAtVwZ02KNa7IWELAzvgdVwDY546O6gIGsLu6CvQ4pHE47i-rFZiV1cm-IR_2s2/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_012.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX-mm8govHfRo_Ive-0YM2cg86N8mDt8kMWv42ZImdGl1klUP0YGYdK4lcOjPCErMaqmc9-9GFJzpj8iAtVwZ02KNa7IWELAzvgdVwDY546O6gIGsLu6CvQ4pHE47i-rFZiV1cm-IR_2s2/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_012.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhqx1uf-DZ3Ywmu4Ha3C0A3aI3SH6hy85_XOxDYG3S9vGA49-tZeFPN-M9FSzK80P6xgN9sXCrIAZ7U8E__2nl8yYNpePV0ekDqITynXz99WerkI-dfcxp3QiWWlQvOQTvB55ocYopfK20/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_013.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhqx1uf-DZ3Ywmu4Ha3C0A3aI3SH6hy85_XOxDYG3S9vGA49-tZeFPN-M9FSzK80P6xgN9sXCrIAZ7U8E__2nl8yYNpePV0ekDqITynXz99WerkI-dfcxp3QiWWlQvOQTvB55ocYopfK20/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_013.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1CFRWKsMwi4wFuqkeuSaidGRhotdQzuJa9fdmeFkH-qx7QDINc_i2ozMB-3Dv0-MbcnW5yujz-CFGkdTcA5lX_lne9xUAvCcIQR04r79qfxNpcGGihNpm68EvxQKJX-NfKfTzVah2VbkG/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_014.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1CFRWKsMwi4wFuqkeuSaidGRhotdQzuJa9fdmeFkH-qx7QDINc_i2ozMB-3Dv0-MbcnW5yujz-CFGkdTcA5lX_lne9xUAvCcIQR04r79qfxNpcGGihNpm68EvxQKJX-NfKfTzVah2VbkG/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_014.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY0255imKPepdvpVUWuP-cGDMnsDKv7WVu5FP2XTIHtyKX3QzEAc-rCFG18oNscy97EUiR-T5EEWO5fwQWe0beq69MdHUdINzp_8u2GeCSegr25SxbOpqh_PizPconSFfFAL6sNfZAVCVY/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_015.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY0255imKPepdvpVUWuP-cGDMnsDKv7WVu5FP2XTIHtyKX3QzEAc-rCFG18oNscy97EUiR-T5EEWO5fwQWe0beq69MdHUdINzp_8u2GeCSegr25SxbOpqh_PizPconSFfFAL6sNfZAVCVY/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_015.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXUchYPqeLgrWs8ijk_fuc9SVWxybgCZP8tQBH27MaEOqQiOXJWHP1MoDAW414RidUbL8VA5R0uxvRnYTkrycgkNvzyTOoLMyR67er3RUy3FSyVlYOM7yiCaua3coK3xVU_JjvEiUhqm0z/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_016.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXUchYPqeLgrWs8ijk_fuc9SVWxybgCZP8tQBH27MaEOqQiOXJWHP1MoDAW414RidUbL8VA5R0uxvRnYTkrycgkNvzyTOoLMyR67er3RUy3FSyVlYOM7yiCaua3coK3xVU_JjvEiUhqm0z/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_016.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig8sTtoOcFoip-LeLcCvap3jpARPBcmwtK27eO8-TpJym3Fb53DDco7K_uMaT2EJS1gyzYvAG00201hHyfL4eic9GKndLJJG0wSF7HPkmk2zNOMeZqYEx-pYOLYEjxcoUDJSXuiBp54TMG/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_017.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig8sTtoOcFoip-LeLcCvap3jpARPBcmwtK27eO8-TpJym3Fb53DDco7K_uMaT2EJS1gyzYvAG00201hHyfL4eic9GKndLJJG0wSF7HPkmk2zNOMeZqYEx-pYOLYEjxcoUDJSXuiBp54TMG/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_017.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9xrPEZn1qvniLfnR0lkaEDNcrUu9CaS-d0LRx8R85eUG6CeJv-_bMJSJ6xabMKrP_z3rOFn8yPCzoem5KuHVNArFlK5bUrPWId__q3FkxdHtY7NI5VXTtjIxXu9E_rMnPKnAMe3IZ5KQ7/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_018.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9xrPEZn1qvniLfnR0lkaEDNcrUu9CaS-d0LRx8R85eUG6CeJv-_bMJSJ6xabMKrP_z3rOFn8yPCzoem5KuHVNArFlK5bUrPWId__q3FkxdHtY7NI5VXTtjIxXu9E_rMnPKnAMe3IZ5KQ7/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_018.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKgsM0DlB9KEZghit-njKtjfudbhGnoeSwXYE_2t-nwB9X671lguh4H7m5qz1kpW7IXRj6JzKxm3iEX01FCqfUDlT3Vxn31jA-YLyta93cFYT5GkSTCJ33aZ6jpO98Q1wmsOoSDclCexFA/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_019.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKgsM0DlB9KEZghit-njKtjfudbhGnoeSwXYE_2t-nwB9X671lguh4H7m5qz1kpW7IXRj6JzKxm3iEX01FCqfUDlT3Vxn31jA-YLyta93cFYT5GkSTCJ33aZ6jpO98Q1wmsOoSDclCexFA/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_019.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjM51iMK0UKRIdsVnyGH3a4S_FF_ArK3bpow9OJerU7kjcecox4wEBhSavP5EpPgCzHJYjreM-HOjLWNbmd2-VvO_F5C5EWSsAlfFgQIIRhaljc3TYN-GqGhcjLC3rRAqtnGjp5MT52hSjA/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_020.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjM51iMK0UKRIdsVnyGH3a4S_FF_ArK3bpow9OJerU7kjcecox4wEBhSavP5EpPgCzHJYjreM-HOjLWNbmd2-VvO_F5C5EWSsAlfFgQIIRhaljc3TYN-GqGhcjLC3rRAqtnGjp5MT52hSjA/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_020.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizau6f4lU6I-e9pY0_iRdq37wl-h8xuwBGFEuzbWvqt5ICV-az3KgrKB-wtv7WQuYAm-eqNWwT6dB9m2SdPbOu0U2k0p5Pn3CwYUn6utPTfiYYEwu0mNPG9schA1bqrLMFjWIWs8NVSHH3/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_021.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizau6f4lU6I-e9pY0_iRdq37wl-h8xuwBGFEuzbWvqt5ICV-az3KgrKB-wtv7WQuYAm-eqNWwT6dB9m2SdPbOu0U2k0p5Pn3CwYUn6utPTfiYYEwu0mNPG9schA1bqrLMFjWIWs8NVSHH3/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_021.jpg" width="480" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc6OSUgN0uqp5C4WCdUfIJpKVFPJWeRBR4ZQV1cxSNBurKUZyWy-fPi1PkJjzSZrm5ObAwH_b4CxyP0p8WaS6zfHpi2Q1uBwzBx6fzV3OSm7vgvHYImDfAg7gyF6eqDq6MHFUkQZvdMXb-/s1600/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_022.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc6OSUgN0uqp5C4WCdUfIJpKVFPJWeRBR4ZQV1cxSNBurKUZyWy-fPi1PkJjzSZrm5ObAwH_b4CxyP0p8WaS6zfHpi2Q1uBwzBx6fzV3OSm7vgvHYImDfAg7gyF6eqDq6MHFUkQZvdMXb-/s640/Uncovering+gems+in+an+Undervalued+Market_%25E9%25A1%25B5%25E9%259D%25A2_022.jpg" width="480" /></a></div>
Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-82313006562433386132016-11-22T16:42:00.002+08:002016-11-22T16:45:20.655+08:00【LEONFB】我和鋼鐵業的那些年<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtqJWT0hLnXZIN_aFjWSxl_isyEhIRjo4id1JQQGX22jXIEAEMd_-fntyyCfZkkNh0lhV6GwnkZinPvVvmtkiZIoJzv_xQKzcNfwJ_x3Vh6rJiWTRD6U63UmjsJf7gUQqWe4trn0Il5lRl/s1600/leonfb+logo.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtqJWT0hLnXZIN_aFjWSxl_isyEhIRjo4id1JQQGX22jXIEAEMd_-fntyyCfZkkNh0lhV6GwnkZinPvVvmtkiZIoJzv_xQKzcNfwJ_x3Vh6rJiWTRD6U63UmjsJf7gUQqWe4trn0Il5lRl/s640/leonfb+logo.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<b>友情提醒: 這篇廢話閒聊較多, 可能無關分析的東西不少, 比較啰嗦, 为了不浪费大家时间, 大忙人請自行路過, 感恩!</b><br />
<br />
真正進入鋼鐵這一行是2009年的12月24, 平安夜.<br />
行業主要是專注在冷軋硅鋼(CRGO/CRNGO)的貿易和加工.<br />
當天飛到中國開始學習中國分廠的銷售和處理當地管理的協調工作.<br />
2012年之後被台灣的同行挖角到印度Bangalore負責開廠和銷售事宜.<br />
<br />
7-8年的時間對鋼鐵業來說不長, 不過這幾年足以切身感受近年鋼鐵業的困境.<br />
這也可能是為何身在熟悉的鋼鐵業, 卻完全看漏了最近鋼鐵股的暴漲...<br />
<br />
看漏的原因是一開始壓根兒就不信中國能實際意義上的減產, 中國鋼鐵業牽連太廣, 是國家重點戰略物資. 過剩產能不是說停就停. 降低產能這件事其實說了好多年.<br />
<br />
2011年的時候, 鋼材的一波大跌勢, 當時USD900的母材鋼捲原材, 加工過後成品被別人壓倒USD880, 還要給90天Open Credit. 所有廠家還在比出貨速度, 看誰庫存能銷的快, 因為大家都對鋼價的跌勢感到擔心. 事實也證明, 之後幾年鋼材還是一直往下走.<br />
<br />
隨著珠三角地區工資不斷暴漲(我2010年的時候, 所處的3線城市基本工資是630, 2012年離開中國的時候已經是RMB 980), 很多追求低成本的下游企業也慢慢外移.我 最後會去到印度, 也是因為整個產業鏈和制造中心往菲律賓,印度等低工資國家迁移说造成.<br />
<br />
所以對於中國下大決心去產能, 以及武鋼寶鋼重組等一系列事件我是蠻意外的.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLoqle4sO2V-lUNE00MmXgtxkFJMJyfG0U49N2rAaM-AqPGWAiOIQaBHgRi2IMMhbbgUQej0HfQkGS3RsFblbHHJdp0OM4vSGaNg-RSs3tpwIwpYE46FjPsEOKit_Xj6kQoxN9KqAphU5Y/s1600/%25E7%2594%259F%25E4%25BA%25A7%25E6%25B5%2581%25E7%25A8%258B.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLoqle4sO2V-lUNE00MmXgtxkFJMJyfG0U49N2rAaM-AqPGWAiOIQaBHgRi2IMMhbbgUQej0HfQkGS3RsFblbHHJdp0OM4vSGaNg-RSs3tpwIwpYE46FjPsEOKit_Xj6kQoxN9KqAphU5Y/s640/%25E7%2594%259F%25E4%25BA%25A7%25E6%25B5%2581%25E7%25A8%258B.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
對於馬來西亞上市鋼鐵公司, 由於這幾個月的暴漲, 也隨著出現了大量高質量的分析, 這裡就不多說了.对于钢价对于钢铁行业的利好到现在再来说意义已经不大.<br />
<br />
<br />
今天要說的, 是一家不是那麼鋼鐵股的鋼鐵股-<b>LEONFB</b><br />
嚴格來說, Leonfb不是鋼鐵生產商,<br />
属于下游的下游, 主要從事貿易和鋼材加工的一家公司.<br />
這家公司上市以來我都有留意, 因為除了鋼種和規模不同, 基本上是自己身處的行業當中.<br />
<br />
說白了就是很有親切感. 除了鋼種不同, 基本業務格局基本相同.都是属于贸易和轻加工.<br />
<br />
我会从3个方面来聊聊我的一些看法,<br />
<br />
<ol>
<li>先按Financial Report说基本面, </li>
<li>对Leonfb接下来的发展和期待. </li>
<li>总结和估值</li>
</ol>
<br />
<br />
<h2>
Part 1.Financial Report</h2>
<b>Income Statement</b><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9hbDXgb1cb_z9NR-MXv0WP21ucelOqmZpFtHDID08_EjYrthpSCkYYk3GYInWLVupMT7DKYGiVDXZr6Nc_U0CWaBhr2gaY_PqTw4yYgggXaME-m7az6Dv1NscNCnumreiEuz-6bGEn3HC/s1600/leonfb-p%2526l.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9hbDXgb1cb_z9NR-MXv0WP21ucelOqmZpFtHDID08_EjYrthpSCkYYk3GYInWLVupMT7DKYGiVDXZr6Nc_U0CWaBhr2gaY_PqTw4yYgggXaME-m7az6Dv1NscNCnumreiEuz-6bGEn3HC/s640/leonfb-p%2526l.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>LeonFB 2013年上市, 一直保持盈利</li>
<li>PAT 5-7%, 对于贸易和轻加工, 也没法太苛求.</li>
<li>虽然盈利有波动, 不过在各大钢厂巨亏的FY14-15, 依然保持正常盈利, 实属难得</li>
<li>利息成本巨大, 占了PBT的近20%, 有增加趋势, 主要是上市之后一直在扩张, 细节Part 2会提到</li>
</ul>
<div>
Financial Performance by Segment</div>
<div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8o96plfoZzRG3aD-LrwESpOXO2RAD_W2sOjVZ3kVIuk8_4RjVBUqbeWxOWXgrpN2YjsKkmNPSeYmvJfwJpoKSlwQFn8lk6H0n5xmWF1AW1K3TH4oXH_Hjeo2BH3L78Rv6yGhda35QzRU4/s1600/leonfb-segment.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="292" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8o96plfoZzRG3aD-LrwESpOXO2RAD_W2sOjVZ3kVIuk8_4RjVBUqbeWxOWXgrpN2YjsKkmNPSeYmvJfwJpoKSlwQFn8lk6H0n5xmWF1AW1K3TH4oXH_Hjeo2BH3L78Rv6yGhda35QzRU4/s640/leonfb-segment.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>上季度16Q2因为钢价的上涨, 可以看到Trading&Processing Gross Margin大幅提升. 不过就Revenue而言, Processing有下跌的趋势</li>
</ul>
<div>
Cash Flow</div>
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPPkMGScHLOYkSzlKrF4WM21XAG9JrN2G5c6gUZ7mlxvbSNeohKAX07dfmhS8agEiHa6ZHxbRmvAVrh3pgEhKsmZ4sTbaH0J9tp8GrZswvLeO43oOIu5LW3ph4L6QXxq4Tqi607Of0Ia-O/s1600/leonfb-cf.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPPkMGScHLOYkSzlKrF4WM21XAG9JrN2G5c6gUZ7mlxvbSNeohKAX07dfmhS8agEiHa6ZHxbRmvAVrh3pgEhKsmZ4sTbaH0J9tp8GrZswvLeO43oOIu5LW3ph4L6QXxq4Tqi607Of0Ia-O/s640/leonfb-cf.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>上市之后投资新厂和机器, 可以看到Cash flow from investing activities近两年大幅增加, </li>
<li>主要是用在新厂房土地, 建厂, 和新机器, 估计下季度厂房投资完成之后, 新营业额的增加和Investment activities的减少, 相信Cashflow会有非常大的进步.</li>
</ul>
<br />
Balance Sheet<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWYj5gRHAVzKWRr3RpJkXPHCA2VkA84prfDR4BIjWMyi4BbXqwn2z8qIvEDjzG4FswpBRW3_TMPYYnT2_0UvIIA3vtSLH-TsYFVaJYZQADzirLvTjPkmiEeSDyXtYDCghlC0PAH3je4FTe/s1600/leonfb-bs.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWYj5gRHAVzKWRr3RpJkXPHCA2VkA84prfDR4BIjWMyi4BbXqwn2z8qIvEDjzG4FswpBRW3_TMPYYnT2_0UvIIA3vtSLH-TsYFVaJYZQADzirLvTjPkmiEeSDyXtYDCghlC0PAH3je4FTe/s640/leonfb-bs.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
对于行外人士, 对于Leonfb的balance sheet可能会有一些误解.<br />
因为有这非常高的Borrowing, Debt to Equity高达0.73,<br />
而且cashflow在扣除Bank Overdraft之后竟然是负数.<br />
<br />
Borrowing是事实, 必须尊重, 再此不想刻意为Leonfb做太多辩解.<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEie3XB1oWg3Fy9wMikkAjGwkcgZrOrxh2uA-MYz16fsLbp2IeHNfGTHfHjrONHaslBdMvzTwLA3_06Ukkgk7eu6Zi-dbFOGBp7CP13BjWAi5Bo893TZsvWO_ERLHH2h4t1pc9KMooKgJqBV/s1600/leonfb-borrowing.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEie3XB1oWg3Fy9wMikkAjGwkcgZrOrxh2uA-MYz16fsLbp2IeHNfGTHfHjrONHaslBdMvzTwLA3_06Ukkgk7eu6Zi-dbFOGBp7CP13BjWAi5Bo893TZsvWO_ERLHH2h4t1pc9KMooKgJqBV/s640/leonfb-borrowing.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
不过有一点必须要提,<br />
通过观察年报, 可以了解到, LEONFB其实大部分的borrowing是属于Bankers' Acceptances, (BA),<br />
由于是钢铁加工/贸易是老本行, 对BA有一定了解.<br />
简单的来说就是银行担保的一种付款方式, 有点类似LETTER OF CREDIT(LC)的作用.通过和银行借贷和担保来和钢厂购买原料.银行提供额度来做采购的周转并收取利息.<br />
<br />
钢铁这一行一般上由于上游的现金流和成本压力/风险, 一般上不给账期, 顶多和老顾客做月结/到货付款.<br />
<br />
而钢铁下游只能通过现金或者银行BA来购买原材料,<br />
所以可以看到LeonFB的Account Payable是非常少的,<br />
也就是说没有欠主要供应商货款, 都是通过BA采购, 欠的是银行.<br />
<br />
高BA欠款, 低ACCOUNT PAYABLE, 这也算是钢铁下游加工的一种常态.<br />
<br />
对我来说, 把Borrowing-BA的部分看成Account Payable去了解LEONFB的Balance Sheet,<br />
或者用total Liability对比Total Assets, 可以比较清楚的了解实际情况.<br />
<br />
当然, 会计上还是属于欠银行的债务, 这点没有任何争议. 不能忽略高BORROWING带来的影响.<br />
<br />
<br />
<h2>
<b>Part 2. 对Leonfb接下来的发展和期待. </b></h2>
有接下来有几点期待:<br />
1. 保税仓库<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimPqh-rXxGQ2_lz_P2ucIXeuPQLlvJdetA4DknVQABcqr30dr0N9ylbwCC8YCG1w9j0Ejk4SAcGeK0X6xYQ0Txo7qHwx335uleaNhDjSFhqc_jmLwV0OMbeXTVMKOVnyAFSqLsJ5nYnKyJ/s1600/leonfb-new+warehouse.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimPqh-rXxGQ2_lz_P2ucIXeuPQLlvJdetA4DknVQABcqr30dr0N9ylbwCC8YCG1w9j0Ejk4SAcGeK0X6xYQ0Txo7qHwx335uleaNhDjSFhqc_jmLwV0OMbeXTVMKOVnyAFSqLsJ5nYnKyJ/s400/leonfb-new+warehouse.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
按照2015年的ANNUAL REPORT, 位于Port KLANG Free Zone的Warehouse已经在DEC 2015完工.<br />
这种Warehouse操作形式刚好本身的工作中有大概的了解,<br />
之前我在中国和印度都有稍微接触和相关经验.<br />
在中国叫保税仓, 在印度叫Bonded Warehouse,<br />
主要是让<b>出口商</b>或者<b>免税企业</b>能在不需要缴税/退税直接从Warehouse进货,<br />
此类货仓需要受到海关严格监管, 以防止企业有偷漏税行为.<br />
<br />
对特定客户不但可以节省成本, 另一方面, 由于避开了退税的时间和过程, 对现金流方面也有很大的优势.<br />
<br />
而且对LEONFB以PortKlang作为中转站, 来拓展出口业务有很大的帮助.<br />
<br />
之前的钢铁股大涨潮, 各类分析满天飞,<br />
相信也让很多人了解到为了保护本地钢铁业, 政府对钢铁股的各类税收是有多高.<br />
<br />
Q1&Q2的 Qtr Report似乎还没见到新Warehouse的贡献, 从三月的新闻了解到, 那是因为正在等待有关当局批准运作的申请手续中. 相信在Q3 Q4会开始贡献.<br />
<br />
2. 新加工厂<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgThKUV9RzY9eS_KClZyExSnq3CjShkCLQUc-Ky4WkxnplfaAoTq1t17Qn9lJe8Bxt_2UAe5NnLUITvwh77b_aBdUMzKWo1DOki_6kT-Ru8Y1iDgr6RsDIn7YU5wm_IDhoJgK0265nz4633/s1600/leonfb-new+processing.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgThKUV9RzY9eS_KClZyExSnq3CjShkCLQUc-Ky4WkxnplfaAoTq1t17Qn9lJe8Bxt_2UAe5NnLUITvwh77b_aBdUMzKWo1DOki_6kT-Ru8Y1iDgr6RsDIn7YU5wm_IDhoJgK0265nz4633/s640/leonfb-new+processing.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
New Factory据说产能几乎让现有产能翻倍, 当然新厂需要时间来释放产能和引进新客户群.相信在Q3&Q4, 营业额能渐渐提高.<br />
<br />
从年报里也可以了解到资金投入基本上也已经大部分完成.<br />
<br />
3. 进军Steel Pipe Business<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4ZLWW5gfCqVQQcIIAOWy79PzybOnr8qRy-2obueqIVYXT6nVdjZXEmNO0AfAa2R0EychVyX6lmhEXvLgawZIjCgwCBIdJBXZjPY_KK3JXN2EydWCWZzXbsC4a0dBTVgzo6lOF89mi6k1u/s1600/leonfb-steel+pipe.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4ZLWW5gfCqVQQcIIAOWy79PzybOnr8qRy-2obueqIVYXT6nVdjZXEmNO0AfAa2R0EychVyX6lmhEXvLgawZIjCgwCBIdJBXZjPY_KK3JXN2EydWCWZzXbsC4a0dBTVgzo6lOF89mi6k1u/s640/leonfb-steel+pipe.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
发展Steel Pipe Business其中一个主要原因是因为现有顾客群中有大量已知客户. 预计2018年中旬才会竣工和投产. 除了31m的土地之外, 预计另外投入70m作为厂房和Working Capital的投入. 这里暂时保持观望态度, 对近期业绩不会有太大影响.<br />
<br />
Processing Facotry 和Freezone Warehouse是已经完成, 在Q1&Q2从Financial Report 中看不到显著的贡献, 接下来两个季度营业额大幅提升的可能性非常高.<br />
当然, 有新的产能也要市场有相对需求才行.<br />
<br />
4. 土地重估<br />
这是一个完全被忽略的新闻.<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKzkfePyxW34-Y31i_YJToU_nX2suF4khVwL3IwPFKk1u1K1A9MFVroQMB1Eyfjm7f286miYkjPwodwPZUWdx4_qmPqCHSJqglHYeoW62YTSbLKS8apHluMkOmtwinknsfCDQwNYgq4juy/s1600/leonfb-acquisition+of+land.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="624" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKzkfePyxW34-Y31i_YJToU_nX2suF4khVwL3IwPFKk1u1K1A9MFVroQMB1Eyfjm7f286miYkjPwodwPZUWdx4_qmPqCHSJqglHYeoW62YTSbLKS8apHluMkOmtwinknsfCDQwNYgq4juy/s640/leonfb-acquisition+of+land.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
July 28, 政府发函通知将征用Leonfb所属Supreme Steelmakers的厂房用地作为MRT2路线的发展用途. 至于征用价格还没说明.<br />
<br />
从年报中可以了解说征用的2块土地的一些细节:<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVb22_FaPK_z_ryg-uo2AzB_YnUnV_v5NdJGoTXuYmgrx-AQyj-B1ybcmBcGV0SG71uwVkFOwXI8g6hsCmDGu3B0nGmxK3AmcWlbHu1y95yH5PB-3GfwDopKkUZzUxLN2IKuZ5WWhrXWOm/s1600/leonfb-land+value.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVb22_FaPK_z_ryg-uo2AzB_YnUnV_v5NdJGoTXuYmgrx-AQyj-B1ybcmBcGV0SG71uwVkFOwXI8g6hsCmDGu3B0nGmxK3AmcWlbHu1y95yH5PB-3GfwDopKkUZzUxLN2IKuZ5WWhrXWOm/s640/leonfb-land+value.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
以上两块地分别是在1991年和2003年购买, 价格/估值分别是Rm917k和4.7m.<br />
上星期看到MRT同样对MRCB的一片4074sqm的发展用空地做出收购, 开出的收购价180m, 所在地点靠近Bukit Bintang 一带, 出价高出附近的品均33000/sqm 许多, 看来出手还满阔气的, 只是不知道对不是GLC的Leonfb是否出手也同样阔绰?<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9H1dk_0DhGZ5eTUls6ixiikuZ-VvdjwwnVKaWk1JA75eJu7aTFznJ72E7MSz8cmyugc4xW9PjooOXTblvz7wnzJybcTpZYx1DJNyQe5sECxbAjSRn770x3JMcm66FJtEoXzEbhWsmvb7a/s1600/leonfb-acquisition+of+land+compare.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="110" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9H1dk_0DhGZ5eTUls6ixiikuZ-VvdjwwnVKaWk1JA75eJu7aTFznJ72E7MSz8cmyugc4xW9PjooOXTblvz7wnzJybcTpZYx1DJNyQe5sECxbAjSRn770x3JMcm66FJtEoXzEbhWsmvb7a/s640/leonfb-acquisition+of+land+compare.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
我网上了解了一下leonfb两片土地所在地附近的低价, 距离MRCB那片地车程大概是20min, 附近厂房估值大概都是6000-9000/sqm, 考虑到迁厂赔偿和产业估值, 如果收购价在10000/sqm, 会在接下来贡献一次性30m左右的盈利(收购价35m-5.6m成本),<br />
<br />
剩余未收购土地的重估, 也很可能让Leonfb的NTA从现在的0.78上升到0.9-1.00左右.<br />
而现在的股价只是0.50, 只有NTA的一半<br />
<br />
而且参考fy15 Annual Report, Leonfb还有位于shah Alam,1991年&2004年购买总面积296000sqf的厂房和土地没有重估.<br />
<br />
所以Leonfb实际NTA绝对大于1.2-1.3,<br />
单以NTA来看是严重被低估.<br />
<br />
虽然MRT势必造成LEONFB迁厂的不方便, 不过相对的如果赔偿合理, 又释放了土地的价值, 个人看法还是利多于弊.<br />
<br />
<h2>
总结:</h2>
我对Leonfb的估值期待很简单,<br />
EPS 10 cents<br />
Dividend 3cents<br />
PE 10x<br />
<br />
LEONFB的股息政策是30%, 可是2015年只派了25.2%,<br />
相信这也是让很多投资者失望的地方<br />
如果明年Cashflow在前两年大量Investment之后进步,<br />
明年派发30%股息应该是没问题的.<br />
我预计如果市场稳定, 在新厂房和Warehouse的支持下, 钢铁价格能够维持, 要达到10cents EPS(31m Net Profit), 应该不难,<br />
可以看到2014年在没有新产能, 市场正常之下的Net Profit 已经达到27.5m了.<br />
<br />
PE方面,<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Cashflow在新产能贡献之后正常化, </li>
<li>在中国减产, 本地钢铁业复苏&稳定的前提之下, </li>
<li>明年选举前大量基建投入, 5 billion Malaysia Vision Valley, 11billion Cyber City Center, 16.6billion Toll Free Pan Boneo Highway, MRT2, 马新高铁等等的刺激和期望.</li>
<li>土地被征收Realize应有价值之后, </li>
</ul>
相信明年市场应该会给出较高与合理的PE.<br />
<br />
要留意钢铁的大势, 虽然Leonfb在FY14-16最坏的时候任然保持不错的盈利, 不过势必对刚建好新厂房和Warehouse的盈利和股价有很大压力.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>写这篇分析的时候, 本人持有相关股票. </b><br />
因为是本身的老本行, 难免对Leonfb有种熟悉感. (希望这种熟悉感不会带我去荷兰吧. )<br />
本人买入有个人情感因素, 加上此股流通量非常低(有时一整天都没交易), 要买入的朋友请三思. 如果形势不对, 要跑都没量.<br />
<br />
<br />
Leonfb暂时是继Airasia之后, 占我Portfolio第二位.<br />
如果明年30大股东和2015年的持股数量没有太大变化,<br />
而我又能坚持持有到明年31/3之后.<br />
大概大家也能在年报上看到我的名字了吧.<br />
<br />
( 因为Leonfb家族成员持股70% 以上, 市面上流通的股票本来就少, 造成Leonfb Top 30 Shareholder的门槛非常低....)<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-16715792506566844732016-11-18T12:43:00.001+08:002016-11-18T12:52:00.644+08:00【Airasia】對最近暴跌和下星期16Q3業績的一些看法<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguUaOhgoNRcIq1h2kocGp5bawrzUovPnedRhAcso5qXr2z3hCmgCF7vTaslNbk5ufkPypfPWGPtmI8T12tqkycSUuF2oynyP9j3Uy3X_Nl4Kh06Ktvi6tEFyXL2vgcLjaYWFhNdQendrTZ/s1600/AirAsia-flight.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguUaOhgoNRcIq1h2kocGp5bawrzUovPnedRhAcso5qXr2z3hCmgCF7vTaslNbk5ufkPypfPWGPtmI8T12tqkycSUuF2oynyP9j3Uy3X_Nl4Kh06Ktvi6tEFyXL2vgcLjaYWFhNdQendrTZ/s640/AirAsia-flight.jpg" width="640" /></a><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1TkFbH06TXfThwZElXue0oX6sCP4vm7jfK7CoLBOByj6KC_FbIlIGZJl0lQV-D9PF7MtlMBOuiyw9JkPO-S16YFa6opF8hgYXJM11oDzC3bndAUO1BIM21h8MICKd-5gdEDPwgtpBMaVI/s1600/AA+16Q3-1.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1TkFbH06TXfThwZElXue0oX6sCP4vm7jfK7CoLBOByj6KC_FbIlIGZJl0lQV-D9PF7MtlMBOuiyw9JkPO-S16YFa6opF8hgYXJM11oDzC3bndAUO1BIM21h8MICKd-5gdEDPwgtpBMaVI/s640/AA+16Q3-1.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-dOZU4_Oc5u8ZWJ0vIe9anWk-nN-xMyxLio9ZQpSM4csSY4vsdHRuUE22a-Xj9WPsCb3XhZHkoVtn5jpz8wV0gKgMa-mP0gdr2lWmW7iqkg8UoshWCLQXlI8MPYETSM8-RPLOD3GdRehs/s1600/AA+16Q3-2.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-dOZU4_Oc5u8ZWJ0vIe9anWk-nN-xMyxLio9ZQpSM4csSY4vsdHRuUE22a-Xj9WPsCb3XhZHkoVtn5jpz8wV0gKgMa-mP0gdr2lWmW7iqkg8UoshWCLQXlI8MPYETSM8-RPLOD3GdRehs/s640/AA+16Q3-2.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvIpvA54T9uI0NRoyyHk4s91wmOTwuxSllqATWDsllRszYwVDp_4BzvMKnv0PgbEqT76sgVl17oYJD3_CZXrtUMn43jkG7OnQaESJvjPOyEVytiOcJy-TVttE1Vn2VPW9RehDDEXGb7d4a/s1600/AA+16Q3-3.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvIpvA54T9uI0NRoyyHk4s91wmOTwuxSllqATWDsllRszYwVDp_4BzvMKnv0PgbEqT76sgVl17oYJD3_CZXrtUMn43jkG7OnQaESJvjPOyEVytiOcJy-TVttE1Vn2VPW9RehDDEXGb7d4a/s640/AA+16Q3-3.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
<b>Estimate:</b><br />
<b>Net Operating Profit: 563m</b><br />
<b>PAT: 329m</b><br />
<b>EPS: 11.8 Cents</b><br />
<br />
以上是<b>较为保守</b>的估算,<br />
主要是因为现在局势有点抓不清. 既然是预测还是保守点好.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>实际业绩</b>出炉业绩<b>优于预估</b>的可能性觉得还是<b>很高</b>的<br />
<br />
预测方式有兴趣的朋友可参考上一篇关于AAX的预测, 里面有较为详细的提到我预测的一些标准, <a href="http://e-thg.blogspot.sg/2016/11/aax16q3.html">http://e-thg.blogspot.sg/2016/11/aax16q3.html</a><br />
<br />
Hedge & Deffered tax反映在Report里的时间点基本上没有依据可循, 基本上都是靠大概猜的. Exchange Loss估计在150m-200m左右<br />
<br />
泰国Q3业绩是已经出炉的, 按31/9的汇率, 也就38m左右.<br />
这个业绩稍微比我的期望来的差. 不过属于可接受范围.<br />
<br />
印尼和菲律宾估计持平, 这里预测小小盈利.<br />
<br />
<h2>
总结:</h2>
就个人来说, 是不错的业绩, Exchange Loss不在控制范围, 也没办法.<br />
除去Exchange Loss的影响, 明年竞争格局没有太大改变, 还能保持这样的成绩, 估计2017 EPS会在50-70cents 左右, 也就是说以现在2.6左右的价格, PE只是4-5x<br />
<br />
而且还未考量AAC的影响.<br />
当然, AAC本身也有不确定性存在.<br />
<br />
个人来说暂时没有卖出的打算.<br />
<br />
最近的大跌除了Exchange loss对未来业绩预期的影响,<br />
另外一个主要原因外资担心资本管制和汇差对于他们的影响<br />
<br />
不要忘了AA有56%是持有在外资手里, 除了业绩和公司本身发展, 外资投行对于我国的资金自由流动性和汇率涨跌是非常敏感的.<br />
<br />
看看这几天Bursa公布的外资卖出幅度, 也不难了解AA大跌的原因了.<br />
<br />
<br />
至于本地投资者是否有必要随外资起舞, 然后再低价杀入,<br />
毕竟投资风格各有所爱, 这里就不予置评了.<br />
<br />
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">卍</span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">個人分析記錄</span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">買賣盈虧自負</span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">分析若有錯誤</span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">勞煩提點指出</span></b><b style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><o:p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Facebook PAGE: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth</a><o:p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: 宋体; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">股海無涯</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> Blog: <a href="http://e-thg.blogspot.com/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6c839f; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline;">http://e-thg.blogspot.com/</a></span></div>
<br />
<br />Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1859375334811310897.post-9613429411375927262016-11-17T13:07:00.003+08:002016-11-17T13:09:54.744+08:00【AAX】對最近暴跌和下星期16Q3業績的一些淺見<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhprZ0FbyhKJ7doK7rEDo5ZQK-mG_7P5_EkhTCOJgGw2_EX17nhZ1bzHYH86C6TRLkZ-fOveWxWg8_mwlPOv1mqXSXdoCS8gLK_yICaOMwG4Zy13CFoGew9rrETwFmapw5Y-sxRf5hmwg_Z/s1600/16q3-1.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhprZ0FbyhKJ7doK7rEDo5ZQK-mG_7P5_EkhTCOJgGw2_EX17nhZ1bzHYH86C6TRLkZ-fOveWxWg8_mwlPOv1mqXSXdoCS8gLK_yICaOMwG4Zy13CFoGew9rrETwFmapw5Y-sxRf5hmwg_Z/s640/16q3-1.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-L-Y_PB83Zk_UPbgRPM99k0ONUjlhFYqCw4xBbpoLtgnuJAjHaJDl3AFh5WLWmC99LQLQ60y_qeXCWQSJt4Ol3kUv6smSesifIk15x2326v9Tn12AOyvFBRBrm3us1iB5n_ukbLP_Vl_i/s1600/16q3-2.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="548" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-L-Y_PB83Zk_UPbgRPM99k0ONUjlhFYqCw4xBbpoLtgnuJAjHaJDl3AFh5WLWmC99LQLQ60y_qeXCWQSJt4Ol3kUv6smSesifIk15x2326v9Tn12AOyvFBRBrm3us1iB5n_ukbLP_Vl_i/s640/16q3-2.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
原本打算学做视频分享的,<br />
结果跟了我多年的旧电脑太慢,<br />
再加上拖延症晚期病情日渐严重,<br />
所以最后还是放弃了.<br />
等换了新电脑再试试看直播或者视频制作吧,<br />
毕竟觉得用说话能更清楚表达我想说的...<br />
<br />
基于很多FB Page的股友们对于AAX的业绩很是关心, 也收到了很多PM, 在这里对于大家的耐心表示感激(不过对于一个拖延症晚期患者真的不要过度期待会按时Update Post)<br />
<br />
以上是我按最新Operating Statistic做出的一些预测, 仅供参考, 也欢迎大家提供意见与交流.<br />
<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><b><span style="font-size: large;">Net Operating Profit Estimate 81m</span></b></li>
<li><b><span style="font-size: large;">Profit After Tax 46m</span></b></li>
<li><b><span style="font-size: large;">EPS 1.1</span></b></li>
</ul>
<br />
<br />
对于AAX的业绩估算这里分享一下, 有兴趣的朋友以后可以自己尝试估算, 就不用等我了.<br />
-估计的重点有三个, 1.载客量, 2. 平均票价, 3. Exchange Gain/Loss<br />
-其中, AAX的Exchange Loss相对好估计, 按照以往的估算, 基本上都和实际汇损±15%左右, 可以参照下表.<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJqBNafhtegss2r_MFws2qP4UskffqkGZEoS8InAXsC1ALDGfS7VK6E7WW1xW9gOFf9NZ1Ig69qBEcUMhFzcVke_3RtiI9ardX1zj3S9CLvX1OLrEySPAKf3cNJwNYutyBUMQadDrUv4iQ/s1600/16q3-3.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="148" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJqBNafhtegss2r_MFws2qP4UskffqkGZEoS8InAXsC1ALDGfS7VK6E7WW1xW9gOFf9NZ1Ig69qBEcUMhFzcVke_3RtiI9ardX1zj3S9CLvX1OLrEySPAKf3cNJwNYutyBUMQadDrUv4iQ/s640/16q3-3.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Total Borrowing x Exchange Diff with Lass Qtr基本上都和实际汇损吻合, 我用的是BANK NEGARA的Middle Rate(<a href="http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=statistic&pg=stats_exchangerates">http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=statistic&pg=stats_exchangerates</a>)</li>
<li>载客量等到Operating Stat 出炉, 100%准确</li>
<li>Avg Fare 品均票价就有很多估算成分, 基本上我考量的有以下几点:</li>
<ul>
<li>上季度Presentation的Forward Booking概况(参考下图), 由于机票是买的越晚就越贵, 所以一般上会以Forward Booking为基础来向上调整</li>
<li><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMuSoKzVSUqcvC5h9-H8lEapI9o3ZCYKP4Y_FX9lzwxqxMPdQWg_eGQr7Kue4Rqw7siAHWliQCf8LmqQPdzt9xziu_81piqa-40Z6X4hHIOs8odwuwx7NhemRMM0lcZAuBRGBuFjb-3_VC/s1600/16q3-4.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMuSoKzVSUqcvC5h9-H8lEapI9o3ZCYKP4Y_FX9lzwxqxMPdQWg_eGQr7Kue4Rqw7siAHWliQCf8LmqQPdzt9xziu_81piqa-40Z6X4hHIOs8odwuwx7NhemRMM0lcZAuBRGBuFjb-3_VC/s320/16q3-4.PNG" width="320" /></a></li>
<li>向上调整的幅度我是根据ASK&RPK, 还有AVG Stage Length的增长幅度和Load Factor来做出粗略的预估, </li>
<li>AVG stage length 增加代表品均飞的距离和地点更远, 一般上代表着Avg Fare会提高, </li>
<li>Load Factor一般上增加, 也代表着Avg Fare会增加</li>
<li>以上Avg估算是以正常竞争环境下为前提,</li>
<li>虽然以上都是利好, 不过由于考虑到刺激度MAS和Malindo Promotion的力度似乎有加强的情况, 加上增加大量新航线的初始Promotion Period, 以上估算是以15Q3的票价 +20%来做粗略估算.</li>
</ul>
<li>Expenses 方面, 为了保守起见, 我在Staff Cost, User Charges 对比上季度估计提高20%</li>
<li>根据ASK的对比上季度的增长推算出Barrel of Fuel, 然后 x品均油价(已100 % hedge 56)xExchange Rate = Aircraft Fuel Expenses</li>
<li>由于Total Fleet没有大变化, 所以估计Depreciation和maintainance方面只是因为Exchange Rate少许增加.</li>
</ul>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
以上基本是我做业绩估算的依据了, 希望对大家有帮助.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h4>
后话:</h4>
<div>
对于AAX这季度个人感觉还算不错, RPK和passenger 的大幅增长是我预料之外的, </div>
<div>
虽然,基于前几次对比实际业绩, Avg 都被我低估, 不过我觉得估算还是保守一点来的好.</div>
<div>
个人觉得, 实际业绩比我估算稍微好一点点的可能性还是蛮大的.</div>
<div>
AAX对美金汇率的影响已经在上几个季度大幅度降低Borrowing之后,</div>
<div>
变得不再那么明显. </div>
<div>
不过USD Exchange Rate对AAX始终是负面影响, 现在这个形式充满不确定性, 大家买卖方面稍微谨慎点, 方为上策.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
希望以上的一些想法和数据对大家有用.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
至于AA的估算嘛, 这两天我尽量吧, 不过也不能保证, 毕竟我是一个病入膏肓的拖延症患者, 哈哈!</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<br />
<div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 13.5pt;">卍</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 13.5pt;">個人分析記錄</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 13.5pt;">買賣盈虧自負</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 13.5pt;">分析若有錯誤</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 13.5pt;">勞煩提點指出</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Facebook PAGE: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth">https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">股海無涯</span><span lang="EN-US"> Blog: <a href="http://e-thg.blogspot.com/">http://e-thg.blogspot.com/</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
</div>
</div>
Endlesswavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14988674677157670623noreply@blogger.com2